Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 10
There's nothing quite like the NFL.
Football is one of the most intense, exciting sports on the planet. The source of the now-ubiquitous saying "Any Given Sunday," the NFL is a place where even struggling teams have a chance to topple the best in the league. Anything can happen when you play only 17 regular season games a year.
That uncertainty is a huge driver behind the excitement the NFL generates each and every season. What's more fun than watching something totally unexpected unfold before your eyes?
That's why, this year, we'll be bringing you some bold predictions to watch for in each week the 2024 NFL season.
All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
NFL Bold Predictions for Week 10
Bijan Robinson Scampers to 100+ Rushing Yards
After logging only 57.0 rushing yards per game over his first five games, Bijan Robinson has seen his average jump to 86.8 rushing yards per game over the Atlanta Falcons' past four games. In Week 10, the Falcons will renew their divisional rivalry with the New Orleans Saints, who carry the second-worst schedule-adjusted run defense.
The Saints allow the eighth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs and have gone through some rough stretches, such as allowing three 100-yard rushers from Week 3 to Week 6.
Enter Robinson, who has demolished opposing defenses during his ongoing hot streak.
Robinson logged only 0.03 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) over his first five games -- via NFL Next Gen Stats. He's had a major spike in this category since Week 6, recording 0.84 RYOE/C. His yards per rushing attempt has gone from 4.3 to 5.1 from the first five weeks compared to the past four games.
Since Week 6, Atlanta has faced three teams among the bottom six marks in adjusted run defense; this certainly has a correlation with Robinson's jump in numbers. Maintaining this production is realistic with New Orleans giving up 5.1 yards per carry (third-most).
Bijan's touch count is perhaps the biggest concern for this pick, but over the past four contests, Robinson is averaging 17.0 carries per game, compared to Tyler Allgeier's 10.3 rushing attempts per contest.
Our NFL DFS projections have Robinson logging 75.1 rushing yards this week. Considering his recent production, I like his chances of going over this total. Give me Bijan to reach the century mark for the second time this season, aided by the Saints' struggling run defense.
Caleb Williams Fails to Reach Double-Digit Fantasy Points
The Chicago Bears' Caleb Williams has been the epitome of up and down as a rookie. We saw him produce back-to-back top-six QB weekly fantasy finishes in Week 5 and Week 6. Following Chicago's bye, Williams has failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in each of his last two, finishing 28th in the weekly rankings in both contests.
Part of this could be from playing on the road as both of Williams' spike games were at home while Week 8 and Week 9 were in enemy territory. The Bears are back at home in Week 10 against the New England Patriots, who hold the fifth-worst adjusted pass defense. Surely, Williams' fantasy upside will be back this week, right?
Our projections are bullish on the rookie, ranking him as QB18 this week (15.9 projected points). I'm willing to fade Williams by taking him to go under double-digit fantasy points yet again. Let's lay out the reasoning.
Caleb Williams - Passing Yds
First off, the weather for Sunday's game is not aiding either passing attack thanks to what is expected to be consistent 10-15 miles per hour (MPH) wind with gusts expected to eclipse 20 MPH. New England's poor pass defense suggests a big day, but Williams last two opponents (Washington Commanders and Arizona Cardinals) were also each in the bottom 10 of adjusted pass defense.
I don't expect the Bears' 6.3 yards per passing attempt (seventh-fewest) to suddenly rise -- especially in windy weather. Williams carries a putrid 32.5 passing grade on throws of 20-plus yards (via Pro Football Focus). Don't expect Chicago to suddenly air it out.
The Pats are giving up only a 50.0% red zone scoring rate over the last two games too (season-long mark is 57.6%). The Bears have scored once over their last three red zone trips (33.3%) since Week 8. Few scoring opportunities would certainly harm Williams' fantasy production. This game's 38.5-point total and Williams' 213.5 passing yard prop both point to a messy game ahead.
Courtland Sutton Records 80+ Receiving Yards for Third Straight Game
Seven weeks into the season, Courtland Sutton hadn't reached 70 receiving yards once. After his worst game of the season with no catches in Week 7, Sutton has erupted for 111.0 receiving yards per game over his last two.
The Denver Broncos had their way in a 28-14 win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 8, and they attempted 34 passes in a negative game script against the Baltimore Ravens a week ago (41-10 loss). Another negative game script is in the picture on Sunday as Denver is a 7.5-point 'dog against the Kansas City Chiefs.
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Sutton carries a team-high 23.7% target share and 38.8% air yards share this season, which has elevated to 30.0% and 40.9%, respectively, over the last two games. The Broncos already tout the 16th-highest pass play rate in the league, and this may go up with the potential for a big deficit against the Chiefs.
Considering Sutton is logging 10.5 targets per game since Week 8, he's a great pick for receiving props this week. Kansas City is a pass-funnel D -- 16th-best versus the pass, compared to the 4th-best adjusted run defense.
Bo Nix carries a 86.8 PFF passing grade on throws of 20-plus yards, Sutton is dominating the Broncos' air yards share, and Denver's leading receiver carries an elite 98.9 receiving grade on 20-plus-yard targets.
Sutton's red-hot streak can continue.
Sam LaPorta Falls Outside of the Top 25 Tight Ends
According to FantasyPros, Sam LaPorta carried an average draft position (ADP) of TE2 in half-PPR leagues this season. On one of the league's best offenses, LaPorta has been a major disappointment as TE15 while scoring only two touchdowns thus far.
Shield your eyes LaPorta managers -- it probably won't get much better in Week 10.
While he's projected to be TE16, the Detroit Lions are facing the Houston Texans, who allow the fewest FanDuel points per game to tight ends.
Sam LaPorta - Receiving Yds
Detroit is capable of attacking defenses in any way, carrying the fourth-best adjusted pass offense and second-best adjusted run offense. Houston holds the 7th-best adjusted pass defense and 16th-best adjusted run defense. Plus, the Texans boast the fourth-highest sack rate in the NFL. The Lions could focus on running the rock, and they already have the fifth-highest run-play rate across the league.
Since returning from bye, LaPorta has a measly 13.5% target share over the four-game split. Virtually all of his fantasy success has been thanks to touchdowns, and the Texans have given up only three touchdowns to tight ends this season.
Across the board, I'm not a big fan of LaPorta this week. Similar to Week 7 and Week 9, LaPorta is in store for another fantasy finish outside of the top 25 tight ends this week.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.