Fantasy Football: 3 Trends to Know Heading Into Week 14
We're approaching the final stretch in the fantasy football season, so it's crucial to use valuable information and data when making lineup decisions. Understanding trends around the league can allow us to gain an advantage over our opponents in fantasy football, whether it be in season-long or DFS formats.
Player's usage, adjusted pace, team pass rates, defensive schemes, and other factors all fit the description of trends we should be paying attention to. Taking that into account, let's take a look at a few trends to know entering Week 14.
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Fantasy Football Trends to Know for Week 14
Jonnu Smith Has Been Miami's Go-To Receiving Option
Just like we all expected, in a Miami Dolphins offense that features Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De'Von Achane, it's been Jonnu Smith who has become the go-to option for Tua Tagovailoa in recent weeks. Over the past three games for the Dolphins, Smith leads the Dolphins in target share (24.8%), receptions per game (8.3), and receiving yards per game (100.3), per NextGenStats.
It's not like Smith's increases usage hasn't been warranted, either, as his 2.89 yards per route run also leads the team in the last three weeks. With Tagovailoa being a quarterback that relies on going through his reads quickly and getting the ball out before pressure arrives, Smith is a perfect weapon in Miami's aerial attack.
As a result of him getting more looks in recent weeks, Smith has finished no worse than TE in half-PPR formats since Week 11. This is a tremendous outcome for those who took a late-round flier on Smith in fantasy drafts before the season kicked off.
The only concern for Smith is that Hill and Waddle could see their target shares rise exponentially at any moment as they aren't seeing their typical usage this year. At the same time, Smith hasn't done anything to earn fewer targets or snaps on a Dolphins team that is trying to make a late-season playoff push.
Bucky Irving Is Emerging As the Featured Back for the Bucs
It's finally happening. Since coming out of their bye week in Week 12, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have deployed Bucky Irving as their featured back, and it's done nothing but produce fruitful results thus far.
After exploding for 152 scrimmage yards and a score on 18 touches in Week 12, Irving followed that up by registering 185 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 28 touches in Week 13. Even though Irving failed to top a 55% snap rate in either of those contests, he's getting much more work than Rachaad White and Sean Tucker.
Across the last two weeks, White is averaging 12.5 touches per game and 62.5 scrimmage yards per game while Tucker touched the ball 5 times for 10 scrimmage yards in Week 12 before being phased out of the offense again in Week 13. In that same two-game sample, Irving leads the Bucs in red-zone rushing share (50%), making it clear that Tampa Bay trusts him in high-leverage situations.
During Sunday's overtime win over the Carolina Panthers, it was White who was in to end the game with Irving reportedly dealing with a hip injury. Unless the hip injury is serious enough to limit him or force him to miss a game, Irving is poised for another notable performance in Week 14 against a Las Vegas Raiders defense that is giving up the sixth-most rushing yards over expectation per attempt to running backs (0.62).
Jerry Jeudy Has League-Winning Upside With Jameis
Earlier this season, I spoke about how Cedric Tillman has league-winning upside with Jameis Winston starting for the Cleveland Browns, but Jerry Jeudy has been the true league winner since Winston took over. Jeudy just hauled in 9 of his 13 targets for 235 yards and a touchdown in Week 13 against the Denver Broncos, so he's capable of producing big numbers when facing above-average defenses.
Since Jameis became the full-time starter in Week 8, Jeudy leads the Browns in target share (22.7%), air yards share (32.1%), receptions per game (6.6), receiving yards per game (122.8), downfield targets (targets of 10-plus yards) per game (6.6), and yards per route run (2.74). Jeudy is also logging just a 14.3% red-zone target share and 13.3% end-zone target share in the five-game sample since Week 8, leaving room for even more production if his red-zone rapport with Winston improves.
The Browns haven't been afraid to put the ball in the air often with Winston operating the offense as he's tallied 41-plus pass attempts in four of his five starts. Additionally, Cleveland is sitting at fifth in pass rate over expected (+1.8%), and their defense has gotten worse from a season ago, putting the Browns in more high-scoring affairs.
Whenever the Browns signed Jeudy to a three-year, $52 million contract before the season, they clearly had big plans for him in the years to come. While it took Winston starting at quarterback for Jeudy's potential to be realized, he's a weekly starter in fantasy regardless of matchup right now.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.