FanDuel Single-Game DFS Football Helper: Wild Card Monday (Steelers at Bills)

The stage is set for the No. 7 seed Pittsburgh Steelers to visit the No. 2 seed Buffalo Bills during Wild Card Weekend on Sunday. There aren't many people who are confident in the Steelers pulling off the upset on the road. Buffalo enters Sunday's matchup as 10.0-point home favorites, and the over/under is listed at 36.5, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

There is a chance of snow at gametime, and it will be below freezing. According to the National Weather Service, winds will be blowing at around 15 miles per hour, and there could be gusts around 30 miles per hour throughout the contest.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Josh Allen ($17,000) -- There aren't many quarterbacks who possess a higher ceiling than Josh Allen's. The dynamic QB is fourth among all qualified quarterbacks in expected points added per drop back, via NextGenStats. Along with his 29 passing touchdowns, Allen has notched 15 rushing touchdowns (tied second-most in the NFL) as he is the preferred goal-line rushing option for the Bills. With the game expected to be affected by wind and potentially snow, it is worth noting Allen leads Buffalo with 32.1% of the team's red-zone rushing attempts. The franchise signal-caller for the Bills averages 24.15 FanDuel points, and the Steelers are allowing the 12th-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks. T.J. Watt is also expected to be out for the Steelers on Sunday, so Allen should have a bit more time to create plays.

Stefon Diggs ($15,500) -- It was a rough month of December for Stefon Diggs, who failed to record more than 50 receiving yards in the four games before Week 18. Last week, the star wideout hauled in seven of his eight targets for 87 yards in the regular-season finale versus the Miami Dolphins. Despite the receiver's struggles in the middle of the season, Diggs still leads the Bills with a healthy 29.2% target share and a 25.4% red-zone target share. The Steelers are 24th in yards per route run (YPRR) allowed to wide receivers, and Gabriel Davis is questionable to play with a knee ailment. If the Bills want to make a deep postseason push, they'll need Diggs to be their clear No. 1 weapon in the aerial attack.

James Cook ($11,500) -- Ever since Joe Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as Buffalo's offense coordinator, the Bills have made more of an effort to get James Cook involved. Since Week 11 -- when Brady began calling the plays -- Cook has averaged 16.7 rushing attempts, 72.4 rushing yards, and 15.3 FanDuel points per game. While Cook's ceiling is somewhat capped due to Allen being the preferred goal-line option, Cook could see a massive workload if the weather negatively affects the Bills' passing game. On top of that, the Steelers are 21st in yards per attempt and 20th in rushing yards over expected per attempt allowed to running backs.

Najee Harris ($10,500) -- For those who want to get different and believe the Steelers can pull off the upset, Najee Harris could very well be the best MVP option for Pittsburgh. The bruising back has handled at least 19 carries and has scored at least one touchdown in three straight games. As a result, Harris has tallied an average of 19.9 FanDuel points per game in his last three contests. In addition to weather conditions that may favor the run and Buffalo boasting a formidable pass defense, the Bills are 25th in rushing yards per attempt and 23rd in rushing yards over expected per attempt allowed to running backs. Given the fact that Harris boasts a 60% red-zone rushing share -- compared to Jaylen Warren recording a 23.7% red-zone rushing share -- Harris is the preferred option.

Flex Breakdown

George Pickens ($12,000) -- In the event that the Steelers do have success through the air, George Pickens could be a large reason why. Since Mason Rudolph became the starting quarterback for the Steelers in Week 16, Pickens leads the Steelers in route participation (93.4%), target share (22.7%), and YPRR (4.59). Even though Pickens is somewhat reliant on making contested catches, the Bills are permitting the ninth-highest catch rate over expected to wide receivers. After Pickens failed to record a single stat in Week 18, the Steelers will likely want to get him heavily involved on Sunday.

Buffalo D/ST ($9,500) -- Both defenses are worth mentioning as solid plays as Allen has turnover issues, but it's tough to have confidence in Pittsburgh's defense sans Watt. While Rudolph has had success as the starting quarterback for the Steelers in the past three weeks, two of the defenses he faced (the Cincinnati Bengals and the Seattle Seahawks) were bottom-10 units by numberFire's scheduled-adjusted pass defense metrics. Buffalo owns the seventh-best schedule-adjusted pass defense. The Bills have also logged the fourth-most sacks (54) and the third-most takeaways (30), making them an enticing option in a game where the weather could lead to sloppier play from the offenses.

Tyler Bass ($9,000)/Chris Boswell ($8,500) -- The kickers from both teams are viable salary-saving options in the lowest projected over/under of Wild Card Weekend. The wind and snow could certainly play a factor in kicking, but the elements may also result in each offense having to settle for a lot of field goals. Both kickers averaged 7.82 FanDuel points per game this season. Tyler Bass is on a solid streak of converting each of his last seven field-goal attempts. Meanwhile, Chris Boswell hasn't missed a field goal since Week 13 and has also made each of his last seven field-goal tries.

Khalil Shakir ($8,000) -- If Davis is inactive or limited in any capacity, Khalil Shakir could see an expanded role in Buffalo's passing attack. In the Week 18 showdown against the Dolphins, the former fifth-round pick caught all six of his targets for 105 yards, giving him 100-plus receiving yards in a game for just the second time all season. Davis exited that game early, so Shakir became the No. 2 wideout for the Bills alongside Diggs. Shakir had the second-highest route participation (82.9%) among all skill players on the Bills in Week 18. Despite having an inconsistent role in the offense, Shakir still managed to register the second-most YPRR (2.06) on the Bills this season.

Pat Freiermuth ($7,500) -- Pat Freiermuth hasn't had a prominent role in Pittsburgh's offense since Rudolph became the starting quarterback, but he could be more involved on Sunday. The weather could limit the number of vertical shots the Steelers take, pushing more looks underneath to Freiermuth. The tight end has an average depth of target (aDOT) of only 3.7 yards with Rudolph leading the offense, making him the preferred dump-off option along with the running backs. We want our tight ends to be on the field often, and Freiermuth has the third-highest route participation (75%) on the Steelers since Week 16. With the Steelers expected to be playing from behind, 'Muth could be busy in a win-or-go-home scenario.

If you're betting on any of Saturday, January 13th's NFL playoff action, you can take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Playoffs No-Sweat Same Game Parlay. Check the promotions page for more information.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.