FanDuel MLB DFS Picks: Sunday 9/29/24

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

With all games starting at 3:00 p.m. EST for the playoff picture, this is one of the most full slates of the entire year to close out the regular season.

Lacking full motivation, it's a bit tough to tell how much we'll get out of a clinched Aaron Nola ($10,200) and an eliminated Logan Gilbert ($10,000), but the two aces are carrying to lowest implied team totals of confirmed starters on the slate. Nola draws a Washington Nationals squad that has limped to a .640 OPS (fifth-worst in MLB) against righties in the last 30 days, and Gilbert battles the high-whiff Oakland Athletics, striking out 25.6% of the time against his handedness in the past month.

Hunter Greene is likely to fall well below 80 pitches again despite a friendly matchup with the Chicago Cubs. It's definitely Bailey Ober ($9,500) or Charlie Morton ($9,300) behind the aces, and keep an eye on each's respective opposing lineup opposite AL squads that have clinched. Facing full-strength lineups, I have them significantly behind the first pair.

My favorite play on the slate is Clarke Schmidt ($8,300), who is attacking a weak Pittsburgh Pirates offense but also figures to be out of the New York Yankees' postseason plans as a starter. That could change quickly if Schmidt's 3.67 expected ERA (xERA) and 37.3% hard-hit rate allowed hold through this start; a few postseason clubs would love that type of arm as a #3 starter.

Playing matchups, Ryan Pepiot ($8,200) draws a Boston Red Sox team that has tanked against righties to a .622 OPS against righties in the past month despite a friendly ballpark. We're also waiting on a confirmed Detroit Tigers starter, but if it's anyone remotely stretched out against the Chicago White Sox, they'll probably work at salary.

Gavin Williams ($7,600) is also expected to serve as the long man for the Cleveland Guardians today in a game where poor hitting weather and a potentially resting Houston Astros team on the other side have left Houston's implied team total at a tiny 3.29 runs.

Stacks to Target

• Los Angeles Dodgers (6.02 implied team total)
  • Coors has roared for at least 15 runs each of the last two days, and it's a known on a slate of unknowns. The red-hot Dodgers draw Ryan Feltner, who has allowed a .353 wOBA and 1.38 HR/9 at home. The Colorado Rockies' bullpen, sporting a poor 4.27 xFIP over the past 30 days, has also been torched in this series. They can't rest everybody, so there will be pieces available.
• Colorado Rockies (4.98)
  • For the first time in the series, Colorado might be able to punch back. L.A. is turning to a bullpen game behind Anthony Banda, and that's typically been good news for their opponents. The Dodgers' bullpen is the team's weakness, posting the league's fourth-worst xFIP over the past month (4.38). Especially after getting trounced twice to open the final series of the year, expect a better effort from the Rox today.
• New York Yankees (4.52)
  • While not believing the Yanks will be at true full capacity, either, a Bronx Bombers date with Bailey Falter is too good to pass up. Falter's 4.81 xERA comes with flyball (42.5%) and hard-hit (40.1%) rates allowed that suggest plenty of extra-base hits. Weather is the reason this implied total isn't closer to five.
• Texas Rangers (4.38)
  • Stacking against the Los Angeles Angels one last time is going to make me emotional. Today's target is sinkerballer Jack Kochanowicz, whose 5.14 xERA is a product of leaving 85.1% of balls in play against him while allowing a 47.2% hard-hit rate. Texas' lineup has crawled from the cellar to a respectable .708 OPS against righties in the past 30 days.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.