FanDuel MLB DFS Picks: Saturday 8/31/24

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching should heavily concentrate around one guy on Saturday.

That guy is Bryan Woo ($10,800) of the Seattle Mariners. Woo's middling strikeout rate (20.4%) is the only hole you can pick in one of baseball's most effective pitchers this season. He sits in the 85th percentile or better in expected ERA (2.29), expected batting average allowed (.208 xBA), walk rate (2.7%), and hard-hit rate allowed (32.3%). Woo's on the road to visit the Los Angeles Angels, who have a league-worst 69 wRC+ against righties over the past 30 days with a high rate of Ks (27.3%), as well.

In cash games and single-entry tournaments, it's impossible to argue against him. In tournaments, a couple of decent alternatives exist with several warts.

Zack Wheeler ($11,300) has the highest salary on the slate as he's home to face the Atlanta Braves' depleted lineup, yet Atlanta has still cobbled together the league's 12th-best team OPS against righties (.754) over the past month. If you trust oddsmakers, Wheeler's opposing implied team total (3.41) is lower than Woo's (3.69) for some reason.

Woo also doesn't bring a ton of strikeout upside, so the matchup for Yusei Kikuchi ($9,900) is more forgivable. Over the past month against southpaws, the Kansas City Royals' 99 wRC+ isn't great, but they avoid punchouts (19.2% rate). Kikuchi's 4.12 xERA and 27.0% K rate aren't an awful bet.

However, I believe the most interesting pivot could be Edward Cabrera ($7,400) in the value tier. Cabrera's 4.98 xERA and 47.0% hard-hit rate allowed can produce a car crash, but he's got tremendous upside for Ks (26.3% rate) when the San Francisco Giants -- sellers at the deadline -- have limped to a .667 team OPS and 27.1% K rate against righties in August. We've got Coors Field on this slate, after all.

Stacks to Target

• Baltimore Orioles (6.27 implied team total)
  • Be wary of Ryan Feltner's sneaky good peripherals at Coors, including a superior 3.67 xFIP and 26.4% flyball rate in baseball's funhouse. This is a trap that's bitten several DFS players before, and the O's .664 team OPS against righties this month is also a massive red flag as a path to failure. There is always a path to a blowup in this ballpark, but I'm leaning closer to a fade or Anthony Santander ($4,100) one-off after researching what is sure to be today's most popular stack.
• Colorado Rockies (5.96)
  • I actually prefer stacking the Rockies against Dean Kremer tonight. Kremer brings his 4.98 xERA, 9.8% walk rate, and 11.0% (!) barrel rate allowed to a place that will bite you for all three of those things. Brendan Rodgers ($2,700) and Jake Cave ($2,500) are scorching in this split and still easily work to also use Woo at pitcher.
• New York Mets (5.12)
  • We'll see how legitimate Davis Martin's hot start for the Chicago White Sox is when it's come through the Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, and Oakland Athletics in three of his last four. Oddsmakers aren't optimistic given this game's total. The Metropolitans (.732 team OPS versus righties) have largely bashed righties all season, and the Chicago bullpen (4.35 xFIP in the last 30 days) is still shaky despite recent improvement.
• Minnesota Twins (4.80)
  • Writing Royce Lewis ($3,300) up in Saturday's home run best bets, the Twins are also my favorite stack in DFS. Jose Berrios has coughed up 1.53 HR/9 on the back of a 5.08 expected ERA (xERA), 37.5% flyball rate, and 42.2% hard-hit rate allowed. This low implied total should keep them under the radar, and Lewis' team-high salary makes for a picture-perfect match with lineups wanting to jam in Woo.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.