FanDuel MLB DFS Picks and Helper: Saturday 8/17/24

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to incorporate our MLB DFS projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- into your research process. numberFire also has the latest starting lineups and weather as well as heat maps to help you find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitcher is going to be a chalkfest on tonight's main slate.

It will center around Hunter Brown ($9,900) of the Houston Astros at inexplicably a four-digit salary. Brown's 3.45 expected ERA (xERA), 25.6% strikeout rate, and 30.8% hard-hit rate allowed are all 70th percentile or better across MLB qualifiers entering the sport's best matchup. The fledgling Chicago White Sox have MLB's worst wRC+ (77) and sixth-highest strikeout rate (25.0%) against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days.

In tournaments, it comes down to how much you want to assign the chance Brown gets surprisingly shelled to pivot to other top aces with higher salaries in tougher spots.

At Coors Field, Dylan Cease ($10,700) can still go toe-to-toe with Brown thanks to his ability. Cease's xERA (3.19) and strikeout rate (31.9%) are better when he's set to face a Colorado Rockies club punching out at the highest rate against right-handers over the past month of play (26.4%). Danger known, there's upside for Cease to be tonight's top scorer.

Chris Sale is a tougher sell at his slate-high salary when the Los Angeles Angels' 113 wRC+ against lefties in the past 30 days is actually quite good. I think I'd sooner turn to Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta ($8,600) in tournaments to free up salary.

Peralta's 3.90 xERA and 28.8% K rate are solid if not spectacular, and his floor seems quite high in a matchup with the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland's .639 team OPS against righties in the past 30 days is one of two marks somehow worse than Chicago's (.640). The downside to them? They've continued to maintain a low strikeout rate (20.9%) in these parameters.

All in all, I'm swallowing the chalk with Brown in cash games and single-entry tournaments, but there are modest alternatives.

Stacks to Target

• San Diego Padres (6.06 implied team total)
  • Will Kyle Freeland's wizardry end tonight? The lefty has somehow coughed up just 0.84 HR/9 at home this year despite elevated flyball (38.5%) and hard-hit (40.9%) rates allowed overall. The Friars have crushed lefties for a top-eight team OPS (.808) and ISO (.209) in the past month.
• Houston Astros (5.44)
  • Chris Flexen (1.45 HR/9 allowed) and one of the league's two worst bullpens currently, per a 5.00 xFIP in the past 30 days, would be an automatic target on any slate. Houston is down Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker to take some sting out of the lineup, but Yordan Alvarez ($4,000) is a magnificent one-off at worst.
• Baltimore Orioles (4.93)
  • The bullpen tied with the White Sox's 5.00 xFIP in the past month belongs to the Boston Red Sox, which helps quell concerns about Baltimore's matchup with Brayan Bello tonight. Nonetheless, Bello's 4.79 xERA and 1.38 HR/9 allowed aren't particularly scary.
• Atlanta Braves (4.68)
  • I've been all about the Bravos for my home run best bets and traditional MLB best bets today, and that applies to DFS, too. Griffin Canning's 4.76 xERA, 39.2% flyball, and 41.5% hard-hit rate allowed are all awful when the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen hasn't fared much better in the past month (4.73) than the previous nominees'.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.