FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Tuesday 1/9/24
Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!
As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.
On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.
NBA DFS Picks
Guards
Top Plays
De'Aaron Fox ($9,600) -- Point guard isn't quite as loaded as usual tonight, but we still have a few high-salary names. De'Aaron Fox makes sense from a game-environment perspective. Fox takes on a Detroit Pistons squad that ranks 27th in defensive rating and lets up the most FanDuel points (FP) to PGs, per FantasyPros. The Sacramento Kings have the highest implied total (125.5), and this game has the highest over/under (240) on the slate. However, Fox has struggled of late (40 FP once in the last five games), so I'd be willing to pivot to Malik Monk ($6,600) to save salary and still get exposure to Sacramento.
Alec Burks ($6,000) -- No Cade Cunningham (30.4% usage rate; 19.0 FGA) for Detroit tonight. That should lead to even more opportunities for Alec Burks. Burks had been playing well even with Cade, averaging 19.8 points and 26.7 FP over his last four. The Pistons have a modest implied total (114), but there's offense to be had against Sacramento's 20th-rated defense. Jaden Ivey ($6,400) makes some sense here, too.
Vince Williams ($5,200) -- Vince Williams Jr. stepped up big time with Ja Morant out last game, setting season-highs in minutes (37), points (19), and FP (37.3). Tonight's slate is light on low-salary guards, so attacking a Dallas Mavericks' D that gives up the fourth-most FP to SGs is enticing. The Memphis Grizzlies are nine-point underdogs tonight; I'm not especially concerned with them capping the 23-year-old Williams' minutes. His 27.8-FP numberFire projection makes him the slate's best point-per-dollar value among guards.
Others to Consider
Kyrie Irving ($9,300) -- I get Dallas' appeal tonight. Both Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic ($12,200) could feast against a Grizzlies defense that's given up the fourth-most FP to PGs and just lost Ja Morant, but I'm worried a lopsided score sends both guards to the bench early. Memphis is 7-20 without Ja this season, posting an -8.1 Net Rating in his absences. That potential outcome would be even more worrisome if Jaren Jackson Jr. (questionable) sat.
Marcus Smart ($7,000) -- According to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ, Marcus Smart has only posted a 22.8% usage rate and averaged 28.4 FP with Morant out this season, but he's fresh off 38.9-FP and 48.2-FP performances. Dallas is middle of the pack in defensive rating, and Smart carries an intriguing salary on a slate lacking high-value guards.
Donte DiVincenzo ($5,300) -- The New York Knicks boast a 119.75 implied total -- fourth on the slate but notable considering they're 13th in scoring (115.8 PPG) on the year. That could lead to more chances for New York's wings considering the Portland Trail Blazers let up the second-most FP to SGs. Donte DiVincenzo is my preferred option here, having totaled 21 FP in in five straight outings. Fellow SG/SF Josh Hart ($5,400) fits the mold as well, but he's been more inconsistent since the OG Anunoby ($6,200) trade.
Wings
Top Plays
Desmond Bane ($8,500) -- There's risk of a blowout in Dallas, but Desmond Bane's salary isn't too scary. He's averaged 40.1 FP via a 29.3% usage rate with Morant off the floor this season. Bane has faced the Mavs three times already, notching 41.6, 47.3, and 48.7 FP. It's a good matchup -- Dallas allows the sixth-most points, second-most rebounds, and sixth-most threes to SGs -- given his skillset (24.5 points; 4.5 rebounds; 3.4 threes per game).
Bojan Bogdanovic ($6,800) -- Bojan Bogdanovic figures to step into a larger role going forward with Cunningham out. In his extended absence last season, Bogdanovic led the way with 30.7 FP and a 27.1% usage rate. His shooting percentages are down across the board this season, but Bojan is quietly attempting the most shots (15.5) of his career. He's flashed slate-winning upside as well, notching 53.9 FP just three games ago.
Luke Kennard ($4,300) -- Tonight's slate revolves around finding value in the void left by injured stars, so I'm immediately drawn to sharpshooter Luke Kennard. Kennard's played five games since returning from injury, to mixed results. He averaged 22.5 FP in his first two outings but has since failed to eclipse 18 FP. I'd chalk the last three up to poor shooting -- a trend that could flip tonight considering the Mavs give up the sixth-most threes to SGs.
Others to Consider
Paolo Banchero ($9,700) -- I won't get to Paolo Banchero in every lineup tonight given the matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves (first in defensive rating and FP allowed), but man, I want some exposure. Paolo has been on fire of late, averaging 54.9 FP across his last six games. He's exceeded 62 FP in each of the last two and recorded double-doubles in four of his last six. Banchero could break the slate, but a night-low 217 over/under forces us to temper expectations.
RJ Barrett ($6,600) -- RJ Barrett was quiet in his first three games with the Toronto Raptors, but he exploded for 37 points and 56.2 FP in their most recent outing. He played 36 minutes and attempted 30 shots in that game, so I'm bullish he's a featured option going forward. At salary, RJ makes for a nice mid-range option against a Los Angeles Lakers defense that's given up the fourth-most FP to SFs over the last seven games.
Harrison Barnes ($4,500) -- Harrison Barnes has been quiet lately, but there's room for optimism against Detroit's 27th-rated defense. Despite exceeding 25 FP just once in his last eight outings, he continues to flirt with 30 minutes on a nightly basis. Given his low salary and Sacramento's slate-leading implied total, he's easy to consider as a salary saver up. It doesn't hurt that the Pistons have allowed the seventh-most FP to small forwards.
Bigs
Top Plays
Anthony Davis ($11,300) -- We don't always get Anthony Davis on the main slate, so take advantage while you can. AD has been remarkably consistent this season, averaging 54.2 FP and exceeding 60 FP in 13 of 35 games. He hasn't been held under 40 FP since November, so I'd be hard-pressed to imagine that a Jakob Poeltl-less Raptors squad contains him. LA boasts the third-highest implied total (120) on the slate; AD is a priority for me.
Jalen Duren ($7,400) -- The final Piston who should see a usage bump sans Cade Cunningham is the one I'm most excited about. Jalen Duren has averaged 35.2 FP in six games since returning from injury. He recorded his second-highest usage rate (22.1%) and second-most points (20) of the season in Detroit's most recent outing. That's a trend I'd expect to continue with their star player out.
Chris Boucher ($4,800) -- There's value to be had down low tonight -- first and foremost with Chris Boucher. Boucher is coming off a pair of 30-FP outings, but he could see even more opportunities with Poeltl out tonight. His matchup with the Lakers isn't ideal, but the big man's recent play and projected role make him an ideal value play. numberFire projects Boucher for 27.7 FP, making him the second-best point-per-dollar value on the board regardless of position.
Others to Consider
Domantas Sabonis ($10,100) -- Domantas Sabonis is coming off a quiet, 38-FP game (by his standards). However, he'd averaged 52.5 FP and notched six triple-doubles over the previous 10 outings. The matchup is certainly there for him to have another ceiling game. Detroit has given up the second-most FP to opposing centers this season, and Sacramento has the slate's top implied total. Sabonis and AD are both eligible at PF and C, so there are ways to get both bigs in your lineup tonight.
Bismack Biyombo ($4,400) -- Over his last three games, Bismack Biyombo has averaged 28.4 minutes and 20.3 FP. He's due for a larger role withSanti Aldama doubtful but could see even more run if Jaren Jackson Jr. is ruled out. Dallas has given up the 10th-most FP to centers, but they'll additionally be without Dereck Lively. At his current salary and with a 27.4-FP projection, Biyombo is numberFire's top point-per-dollar value on the slate.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.