FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Thursday 10/26/23
Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!
As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and a lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.
Here at FanDuel Research, we'll also come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.
The Slate and Key Injuries
Away | Home | Game Total | Away Total | Home Total | 2022-23 Away Pace | 2022-23 Home Pace |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia | Milwaukee | 226.5 | 110.0 | 116.5 | 27 | 11 |
Phoenix | LA Lakers | 225.5 | 110.0 | 115.5 | 18 | 5 |
How injury-riddled could a two-game slate three days into the season be? Today's injury report has the unfortunate answer.
The Phoenix Suns had Bradley Beal (back) sit the opener, and he's joined by Devin Booker (toe) as doubtful for Thursday's contest against the Los Angeles Lakers. What could go wrong? L.A. will be without Jarred Vanderbilt (heel) again after he also missed their season opener.
If you haven't heard, James Harden (personal/conditioning/quitting on another franchise) will also sit tonight for the Philadelphia 76ers. The new-look Milwaukee Bucks are at full strength on the other side as both teams make their season debut.
NBA DFS Picks
Guards
Top Plays
- Tyrese Maxey ($7,700)
- It is no shocker that Harden isn't available for Philly tonight, so Maxey appropriately got a bump in salary for this slate -- but not a large enough one. He averaged 41.1 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Harden off the floor last season.
- As a 22-year-old, you'd have to think his efficiency and overall skill will continue to improve from last year, too.
- D'Angelo Russell ($6,000)
- The Lakers aren't playing LeBron James in a truly full role to start the year, which led to 36 minutes for Russell despite a woeful 42.7 TS% in Denver. Given a 61.0 TS% with L.A. last year, better nights are ahead.
- Jordan Goodwin ($3,700)
- Phoenix is less deep in the backcourt than on the wing or down low, so we have a pretty solid idea Goodwin will hold a full role tonight -- and he might start. He's numberFire's top-projected value play with an anticipated 25.5 FanDuel points in 26.8 minutes.
Others to Consider
- Damian Lillard ($9,500)
- We don't have a great idea of what Dame's usage will look like in Cream City, but this salary caught my eye for a guy who averaged 48.9 FanDuel points per 36 minutes last year with several blowup games well beyond that number.
- De'Anthony Melton ($5,900)
- Melton is another Sixer who'll get a bump without Harden. He averaged 35.0 FanDuel points per 36 last year sans "Beard" with just a 19.8% usage rate in that floor situation, meaning he's less reliant on a hot shooting night to get there.
- Eric Gordon ($4,700)
- As one of the streakiest shooters in the league, we saw Gordon bomb with just 21.3 FanDuel points on Tuesday in 32 minutes. On a full slate, he'd be more avoidable, but the playing time at this salary is still quite valuable.
Wings
Top Plays
- Kevin Durant ($9,800)
- Durant's salary went backwards from the opener at the exact wrong time. He boasted 59.0 FanDuel points per 36 last year with Booker and Chris Paul out of the Suns' lineup, and similar results should be expected if given free rein on Thursday.
- Kelly Oubre ($5,300)
- Oubre should be a prominent bench figure for the Sixers all year, and this Harden drama might thrust him into a similar sixth-man role he had with the Charlotte Hornets last year.
- He topped 34 FanDuel points in five of his last seven amidst Charlotte's deep scoring hierarchy, so don't underestimate his upside on a two-game slate.
- Grayson Allen ($3,900)
- Allen's ceiling is definitely capped as a spot-up shooter, but he started in place of Beal on Tuesday. Without Booker, he could handily eclipse the 21 minutes played in San Francisco tonight.
- He'll definitely be chalky as a starter below $4,000, but he's a better fit for cash games than tournaments. You'll need a shooting masterclass to top 30 FanDuel points.
Others to Consider
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000)
- As we saw Tuesday with Nikola Jokic, MVP candidates can smash two-game slates on their head, and there is plenty of value to get to Giannis. I'm a bit more trepidatious as Lillard will certainly eat into his offensive workload at a similar salary to his median from a year ago.
- Tobias Harris ($6,800)
- Philly's forgotten man always seems to go under the radar when Harden or Joel Embiid miss time, but he averaged 37.5 FanDuel points per 36 with Harden off the floor last year, and most will be fixated on the backcourt.
- Josh Okogie ($5,000)
- His low usage rate (17.8% last year) really doesn't provide much benefit when key scorers are out of the lineup, but he was insanely productive with 25.5 FanDuel points in 32 minutes on Tuesday.
- I see him as oversalaried in general when it took 77.8% shooting to get there, but he could also add a couple shots if Booker joins Beal out of this one.
Bigs
Top Plays
- Joel Embiid ($11,200)
- Embiid is not shy to take shots when asked, which led to a 39.7% usage rate and 61.8 FanDuel points per 36 minutes when Harden sat last year. He'll likely be the chalkiest option with a five-digit salary, but it's totally fair and appropriate.
- Anthony Davis ($10,300)
- After two days of getting inundated with AI memes, Davis is my favorite five-digit play on the board today. The Golden State Warriors weren't the ones to expose this, but Phoenix and Jusuf Nurkic (114.9 defensive rating last year) should struggle with bigs all year.
- The second-half clunker for Davis lowered his salary to a ridiculous point when he posted 55.0 FanDuel points per 36 minutes overall last season.
- Bobby Portis ($5,000)
- I wouldn't be surprised if Portis was in Milwaukee's closing five most nights with the enigmatic Malik Beasley leading an odd cast of candidates to start with their core four. This salary is incredibly friendly to take a stab he logs closer to 30 minutes this evening.
Others to Consider
- Jusuf Nurkic ($7,900)
- In a much better matchup given the Warriors' lack of size, Nurkic posted just 37.3 FanDuel points on Tuesday in an underwhelming 27 minutes. His role -- even in front of the same backup (Drew Eubanks) -- appears nearly identical to last year, and that's underwhelming for $7,900.
- Brook Lopez ($7,000)
- You can't truly "cross off" a 30-plus-minute starter on a two-game slate, but Lopez is easily the fifth-best Buck to target that locks your lineup out of Embiid. Best of luck to those that gamble he goes nuclear.
- Taurean Prince ($4,900)
- Power forward is the diciest spot to fill on the slate, but early returns on Prince's role without Vando were excellent. He logged 30 minutes.
- However, similar to Okogie, we generally want to shy away from a 4-for-6 effort from downtown last game when it came with a notable salary increase.
Interested in playing NBA daily fantasy? FanDuel has plenty of contest options to make every moment more. Be sure to check out other NBA betting options, as well.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.