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3 NHL Best Bets for Saturday 11/2/24

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3 NHL Best Bets for Saturday 11/2/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Detroit Red Wings

Sabres Moneyline (+102)

Moneyline

Nov 2 11:08pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

At first glance, you may be tempted to back the Detroit Red Wings as short home favorites against the Buffalo Sabres; however, there are a few prominent metrics to take note of. The Sabres are clearly the superior analytics team and even skating on the second night of a back-to-back, there’s an edge in backing the visitors at plus-money.

Detroit’s development has taken a few steps back this season. The Wings are completely inept in the attacking zone and that’s hindering their ability to compete. So far this season, they rank 30th in expected goals-for rating, putting up a disastrous 43.0%. But somehow, Detroit has managed to lower that standard more recently. The Wings have seen their expected goals-for rating dip to 41.8% across their past five games, mustering three or fewer high-danger chances in all but one of those outings.

Analytically, the Sabres are trending in the opposite direction. Buffalo has posted positive relative metrics in five of nine games, relying on stout defensive play to gain an advantage. That’s been more plainly evidenced in their more recent sample, with the Sabres holding five of their past six opponents to eight or fewer high-danger chances.

The Red Wings are playing awful hockey right now and shouldn’t be favored against most teams. While Buffalo is coming off a tough loss, the Sabres possess the players, systems, and analytics advantage to leave Detroit with a win.

Utah Hockey Club vs. Vegas Golden Knights

Utah Hockey Club Moneyline (+146)

Moneyline

Nov 3 2:10am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The Vegas Golden Knights were handed a decisive defeat the last time they took the ice, and that could be a sign of things to come. Vegas has vastly overachieved relative to its underlying metrics and could come up short against the Utah Hockey Club.

The Golden Knights aren’t as good as their 7-3-1 record implies. They rank 27th in expected goals-for percentage, registering a 46.7% rating on the season. Not surprisingly, that ineffective play is captured in the Knights’ recent game scores. The expansion franchise has been outplayed in 8 of their 11 games this season, including 7 of their past 9. Wednesday’s result against the Los Angeles Kings is a sign of things to come for the Golden Knights as actual metrics reconcile with expected values.

Utah is trending positively with its most recent efforts. The league’s newest team has held five of their past six opponents to six or fewer high-danger and 16 or fewer scoring chances. Those metrics look even better when spread across the six-game sample with Utah holding opponents to an average of 5.7 and 14.5, respectively. Combined with their improved offensive efficiency, we’re anticipating more wins for Utah in the immediate future.

Vegas has built a house of cards, and it’s all about to come tumbling down. Utah has proven that it is a team on the up and up, and we expect the Hockey Club to put forth another solid effort on Saturday night. At the current price, there’s a decided edge in backing the visitors in this Western Conference showdown.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. St. Louis Blues

Over 6.5 (+110)

Total Goals

Over
Nov 2 11:07pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The acclimation period is over. The Toronto Maple Leafs are finally starting to adapt to their new head coach’s systems. Toronto has seen a significant boost in offensive productivity over the past couple of games, which has yielded improved output after a brief cold stretch. Assuredly, there’s an edge in backing the Leafs to knock off the St. Louis Blues, but the more advantageous position is expecting this one to go over the total.

Toronto is in the midst of an offensive breakout. Last week, we saw a decline in their output, but the Leafs are making amends for it with a few solid showings. The Atlantic Division contenders have tallied 13 goals over their previous three outings with 9 of those coming at five-on-five. That upward trajectory is projected to continue against a Blues team that is struggling to prevent scoring.

While St. Louis continues to play a defense-first system, Blues’ goaltenders have been an inhibiting factor. Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer have combined for a 90.7% save percentage at five-on-five, tumbling to 89.3% across all strengths. Those benchmarks have looked worse more recently, falling to 84.5% and 81.7%, respectively, over the past three games.

Even with home-ice advantage, St. Louis won’t be able to prevent the Leafs from scoring. Toronto has found its offensive rhythm and can flaunt that advantage against Binnington or Hofer. Even with minimal output from the Blues, there’s an edge in backing this one to go over the total.


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