FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Monday 2/12/24
Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!
As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. Our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- update throughout the day to reflect current news. You can also turn to numberFire for player news updates as well as a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.
On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.
NBA DFS Picks
Monday's main slate on FanDuel features nine games, but some dramatically different game environments.
For a full breakdown, see numberFire's matchup heat map. Lines and totals via the NBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top matchups:
- Washington Wizards @ Dallas Mavericks | -12.5, 247.5 total
- Golden State Warriors @ Utah Jazz | +1, 240 total
- Indiana Pacers @ Charlotte Hornets | +9.5, 238 total
- Chicago Bulls @ Atlanta Hawks | -4, 238 total
- San Antonio Spurs @ Toronto Raptors | -6, 237 total
Other games:
- Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks | +1.5, 231 total
- Philadelphia 76ers @ Cleveland Cavaliers | -10.5, 230 total
- New York Knicks @ Houston Rockets | +3, 221.5 total
- New Orleans Pelicans @ Memphis Grizzlies | +9.5, 221 total
Guards
Top Plays
Stephen Curry ($9,700) -- With 48.4 and 49.8 FanDuel points (FPs) in his last two games, Stephen Curry is cooking. He flashed the slate-winning upside we've come to know in a 74.2-FP outing earlier this month and is well-positioned for a ceiling game against Utah tonight. Per FantasyPros, the Jazz have given up the fourth-most FPs to PGs this season, and they've sunk to 27th in defensive rating over their last 15 games. Utah has also yielded the third-most threes (14.2 per game) this season -- something to keep in mind with Curry's threes prop set at 5.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Coby White ($7,600) -- Coby White continues to produce in heavy minutes, averaging 38 FPs and 38.6 minutes over 19 games since the new year. He's exceeded 25 FPs in all 19 of those contests, so there's a nice floor here. The ceiling should be there tonight, too, as the Hawks are bottom-10 in FPs allowed to both guard spots. Consequently, we can turn to Ayo Dosunmu ($5,800) as a salary saver in the same matchup. Ayo has totaled 25 FPs in seven of his last ten games and played 39 minutes in their most recent outing.
Jordan Poole ($5,800) -- The epitome of high-risk/hig-reward, Jordan Poole has some merit tonight. He's gone for 25.8 and 28.9 FPs over the last two games but was held scoreless just three games back. Still, he's notched 35 FPs 12 times this season and tonight is the lowest his salary has been all year. A slate-high 247.5 over/under gives him a nice ceiling, and it doesn't hurt that Dallas gives up the fifth-most FPs to SGs. As of Monday afternoon, Poole is the best point-per-dollar value among guards thanks to a 32.5-FP numberFire projection.
Others to Consider
Luka Doncic ($12,800) -- Among guards, Luka Doncic carries numberFire's highest raw projection (60) by a wide margin. Doncic managed 52.1 FPs despite seeing his fourth-fewest minutes of the season in their most recent blowout win. That instills some confidence he can stay productive even with a lopsided spread against the Wizards tonight. Just keep in mind, he managed "just" 46.4 FPs in a 13-point win over Washington in November.
Immanuel Quickley ($7,000) -- Immanuel Quickley has slowed down a bit after a torrid start to his Raptors career, but the matchup is there for a bounce back tonight. San Antonio has allowed the second-most FPs to PGs on the year, and they're still top-five in pace.
Keyonte George ($5,400) -- Guard lacks obvious value today, but I can get behind Keyonte George at $5.4K. The rook has been impressive against top competition of late, totaling 22, 30.9, and 31 FPs in three matchups with Phoenix, OKC, and Milwaukee. He saw his second-most minutes since December in their most recent outing and could continue to trend up in a stellar game environment versus Golden State.
Vasilije Micic ($5,200) -- Vasilije Micic went for 29.7 FPs in his Hornets debut over the weekend, setting season-best marks in points (18) and assists (9). There's risk in drawing conclusions from a one-game sample, but that's why he's only $5.2K. At the very least, his matchup is good. Indy has given up the fifth-most FPs to PGs over their last 15 games, and they're ninth in pace over that span.
Wings
Top Plays
DeMar DeRozan ($8,100) -- Wing lacks a clear No. 1 option tonight, so I'm more than willing to dip into DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan offers 50-FP upside on a nightly basis, having reached that mark in four of his last eight games. The matchup is certainly there for another big night. A 238 over/under is intriguing enough, but Atlanta is also bottom 10 in FPs allowed to both forward spots. DeRozan's 44.5 numberFire projection makes him the best point-per-dollar value among wings.
Donte DiVincenzo ($7,800) -- Donte DiVincenzo continues to produce with Julius Randle out, averaging 27 points, 40 minutes, and 43 FPs over his last seven games. That makes him well-worth his $7.8K salary -- especially given the matchup. Houston is fifth in pace over their last 15 games, and they've allowed the sixth-most FPs to SGs over that span. DiVincenzo's points prop is set at 18.5, a total he's gone over in six of the last seven games.
Jae Crowder ($4,600) -- Jae Crowder managed just 11.9 FPs in his most recent outing, but it came with the Bucks winning by 36 points. He still played 29 minutes in that one and should see upwards of 40 in tonight's bout with Denver. The Nuggets have been a brutal fantasy matchup for forwards, but it's hard to find someone with Crowder's minutes at this salary range. With a 24.5-FP projection, he's second only to DeRozan in terms of point-per-dollar value, per FanDuel Research's projections.
Others to Consider
Miles Bridges ($9,000) -- Miles Bridges' home/away splits are pretty jarring. He's averaged 41.7 FPs and 23.7 points in 22 home games but just 33.6 FPs and 19.3 points in 19 road matchups. Thankfully, the Hornets are back in Charlotte to take on the Pacers tonight. Indiana is a top-six fantasy matchup for both forward spots and ranks second in pace.
RJ Barrett ($7,500) -- RJ Barrett had consistently flirted with 40 FPs prior to a tough matchup with Cleveland. Lucky for him, tonight's matchup should be much easier. San Antonio sits in the bottom-10 in defensive rating but remains in the top five in pace. They've given up the second-most FPs to SGs on the year, so Barrett should provide a stable floor.
Brandin Podziemski ($6,400) -- Brandin Podziemski continues to impress, averaging 34.2 minutes and 35 FPs over the last six games. He's seen significant minutes regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench, so there's upside against a Utah defense that's bottom 10 in FPs allowed to both SGs and SFs.
Bilal Coulibaly ($4,500) -- Bilal Coulibaly went for 39.1 FPs against a stout Celtics defense just two games back, and he continues to hover around 30 minutes a night. The consistent isn't always there, but I like the upside and playing time he presents at $4,500.
Bigs
Top Plays
Nikola Jokic ($12,000) -- Nikola Jokic is the star I'm prioritizing in tonight's Nuggets-Bucks clash. The Joker has exceeded 50 FPs in 11 of his last 12 games, averaging 60.2 FPPG over that span. He's averaged 63.3 FPs over his last five meetings with Giannis, including a 74.2-FP effort at the end of January. Jokic corralled 16 rebounds in that contest -- a mark well within the range of outcomes tonight. The Bucks are below average in rebounding rate for the year and have dipped to 24th with Doc Rivers at the helm.
Brandon Ingram ($8,400) -- There's a nice mix of value and star power at PF tonight, but Brandon Ingram is my preferred option near the top. He's exceeded 40 FPs in four of the last seven games, going over 35 FPs in all seven. Despite a low over/under, BI matches up well against the Grizzlies. Memphis has given up the fourth-most FPs to SFs over their last 15 games and Ingram's points, rebounds, and assists line is up to 35.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Draymond Green ($6,700) -- Draymond Green is fresh off his third-highest scoring game of the season (15 points) and continues to offer a healthy dose of points, rebounds, and assists. Utah has given up the most FPs to PFs and third-most to Cs over their last 15 games, so Draymond is set up to take advantage of Golden State's 121-point implied team total.
Others to Consider
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800) -- Just because I prefer Jokic doesn't mean you should ignore Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greak Freak carries the highest projection (60.9 FPs) on the slate after he dropped 29 points and 12 rebounds in this same matchup last month. Denver has given up the 10th-most FPs to Cs over their last 15 games, so they haven't exactly been dominating the interior.
Jonathan Kuminga ($7,400) -- Jonathan Kuminga benefits from the same plus matchup as Draymond -- though he comes with a higher salary. That's warranted considering his upside; Kuminga has exceeded 40 FPs in six of his last 12 games, averaging 23.5 points per game over that stretch.
Jonas Valanciunas ($6,500) -- Over their last 30 games, the Grizzlies have allowed the second-most FPs to Cs. That makes Jonas Valanciunas a quality mid-range option for non-Jokic lineups. He'd get a bump if Zion Williamson (questionable) sat. According to RotoGrinders CourtIQ, Valanciunas has averaged 35.7 FPPG in 11 games without Zion, up 4.3 FPs compared to his season average.
Grant Williams ($4,800) -- Grant Williams impressed in his Hornets debut, posting 15 points in 8 rebounds across 32 minutes of action. That gives him some appeal as a salary-saver in a pace-up spot tonight.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.