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FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks and Helper: Saturday 7/6/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3

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FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks and Helper: Saturday 7/6/24

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to incorporate our MLB DFS projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- into your research process. numberFire also has the latest starting lineups and weather as well as heat maps to help you find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitchers to Target

Garrett Crochet ($11,500)

Saturday comes with a choice. The two best stacks on the slate by a mile are high-salaried ones, but the two best pitching options fit the same description.

That starts with Garrett Crochet ($11,500) of the Chicago White Sox. It'd be pretty foolish of me to wager on Crochet to post at least nine Ks and ignore him in DFS, so I won't. He's got mammoth upside in this matchup with the Miami Marlins.

Crochet is arguably MLB's most prolific strikeout artist at present. He recorded 9.3 Ks per outing in June, and his underlying peripherals don't suggest those numbers are going anywhere any time soon. The 25-year-old's chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate are all 83rd percentile or better across MLB -- the latter two ranking 90th percentile or better.

Miami is also a tremendously soft matchup for him. Over the past 30 days, the Marlins have the fifth-worst wRC+ (74) and fourth-highest strikeout (24.8%) against southpaws. They don't profile to succeed when the only team since the start of June that ceded fewer than eight Ks to Crochet was the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Crochet's extremely high salary should keep his popularity in check, but I wouldn't blame a soul for jamming him in and figuring out the rest later.

Hunter Greene ($10,300)

Though not quite possessing the stellar form or matchup of Crochet, I'd expect Hunter Greene ($10,300) to be more popular given a more workable salary to afford.

Greene will toe the slab at Great American Ball Park, which is always a risk for pitchers. The visiting Detroit Tigers' 4.01-run implied team total suggests as much. Nonetheless, the Cincinnati Reds' fireballer has posted a similar xFIP at home (4.42) as on the road (4.17) and has posted over 10.0 K/9 in either condition, so he can still put up a day against Detroit.

The Tigers' inconsistency against righties can lead to ceiling outings, too. Detroit has just an 80 wRC+ against them in the past 30 days (3rd-worst in MLB) with a 24.2% strikeout rate in the same period -- also bottom 10.

If this game were taking place at Comerica Park, Greene might merit a salary closer to Crochet's. Our daily MLB projections see him as the slate's top overall pitcher (35.7 projected fantasy points), and he certainly works if you just can't navigate the salary issues that come from rostering Chicago's ace.

Others to Consider

  • Taj Bradley ($9,200)
    • If there's a value pitcher that can match the previous two's upside, it's Bradley's 31.6% K rate. His league-worst 14.1% barrel rate is the obvious downside, though.
  • David Peterson ($8,400)
    • In contrarian builds loading up on hitters, Peterson could work. The sinkerballer can pile up outs against a Pittsburgh Pirates squad with an ugly 66 wRC+ against lefties in the past 30 days.

Stacks to Target

New York Mets

I'm that one indecisive Larry David GIF from Curb Your Enthusiasm today on whether or not to roster Crochet or the high-salaried New York Mets bats on this slate.

New York was waxed 14-2 yesterday, but they can absolutely flip the script against Bailey Falter on Saturday. Falter is one of MLB DFS' premier stacking candidates, per a 44.7% flyball rate and 41.0% hard-hit rate allowed that has resulted in 1.22 HR/9.

Plus, the Pirates' bullpen -- not a strength all season long -- has a mediocre 4.00 xFIP in the past 30 days.

Part of the appeal on the Mets' side is also their plethora of options currently nuking left-handed pitching recently. Each of the top six in their projected order have a .210 ISO or better against southpaws in the past 30 days, including J.D. Martinez ($3,100), Mark Vientos ($3,100), and Francisco Alvarez ($2,900) at value salaries that still make Crochet a realistic possibility.

Decent wind blowing out to right field only helps this argument, too.

Tampa Bay Rays

In a salary-independent ranking of today's stacks, the Baltimore Orioles would absolutely overtake the Tampa Bay Rays in the two slot. However, Baltimore's lofty salaries on their best pieces are a pipedream with Crochet, and Tampa is in a nice spot with reasonable ones.

The Rays draw Andrew Heaney after getting blanked, 3-0, by the Texas Rangers on Friday. That wasn't too surprising given a righty on the mound; Tampa's 103 wRC+ against righties in the past month considerably lingers behind their 125 wRC+ against lefties, which is the seventh-best mark in MLB during the period.

Heaney is a below-average lefty, as well. A perennial launching pad for homers, he hasn't made great strides controlling his flyball (44.7%) or hard-hit (41.3%) rates allowed in 2024. That's a cocktail that has produced 1.28 HR/9 again this season.

Whenever a poor left-hander is on the bump, Isaac Paredes ($3,500) is always front of mind. He's crushed southpaws for a .966 OPS and .273 ISO in the last month. Teammates Randy Arozarena ($3,000) and Yandy Diaz ($3,000) also make the grade with an OPS above .815 in those parameters.

I love playing teams that got shut out the night before; we've all had a bad day at the office and have looked to rebound. The Rays are in a great spot to do so.

Others to Consider

  • Baltimore Orioles
    • Luis Medina (4.18 xERA) is better than perception, and the O's best pieces vs. RHP come with extremely high salaries. Without access to Crochet, I'll likely be underweight.
  • Washington Nationals
    • The Nats' implied team total (4.68) is sneaky high, and their salaries fit well with Crochet. Extremely hot temps in D.C. should only help them tackle Lance Lynn (4.45 xERA).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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