MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 10/5/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

Padres Moneyline (+118)

The National League West rivalry between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers is being renewed in the postseason yet again. In 2022, the Padres pulled off a surprise 3-1 series upset over the Dodgers in the NLDS. L.A. is hunting for revenge in the upcoming clash.

Game 1 is expected to be a low-scoring affair with San Diego putting Dylan Cease on the mound while Yoshinobu Yamamoto makes his playoff debut. numberFire's game projections have this one with the second-lowest projected total (6.72) for Saturday's four-game slate, which is barely behind the 6.71 projected total for the Detroit Tigers andCleveland Guardians.

Dodgers fans are probably sweating bullets ahead of this one as the Padres have taken six of the last nine head-to-head matchups. Los Angeles, who carries the second-shortest odds to win the World Series (+350), is -142 to win this series.

I believe this could squarely be in danger following Game 1. As mentioned, San Diego has a lot of head-to-head success against L.A. and a pitching advantage could fuel a series-opening win.

The Dodgers made the surprise decision to elevate Yamamoto over Jack Flaherty to start in Game 1. Since returning from a shoulder injury in September, we've yet to see Yamamoto's pitch count really get up there. He logged 59, 72, 79, and 71 pitches in his last four starts since returning. Yamamoto's been pretty up and down, as well, holding single-game xFIPs of -0.46, 4.68, 5.01, and 1.67 during the span.

Over his previous four appearances, Yamamoto has struggled against right-handed hitters, allowing a slash line of .344/.344/.594. Meanwhile, the Padres hold the fourth-highest batting average against righties over the last 30 days of play. We've seen several notable players on San Diego flourish against Yamamoto this season, such as Fernando Tatis Jr. recording two hits in two at-bats while Manny Machado went one-of-two in matchups.

Low pitch counts from Yamamoto's recent outings also suggests plenty of work for Los Angeles' bullpen. That's another worry as the Dodgers' bullpen is tied for the 10th-most runs surrendered over the last month.

Overall, this is expected to be a pretty tight matchup with numberFire holding a 3.39-3.33 projected score (in favor of L.A.). Cease has his own worries after giving up three earned runs while posting a 6.09 single-game xFIP in his final start of the regular against the Dodgers. Los Angeles also has the most runs in baseball against right-handed hurlers over the last 30 days.

Ultimately, I'm going to back San Diego due to head-to-head success -- and its bullpen giving up the sixth-fewest runs over the last 30 days.

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians

Colt Keith to Record 2+ Total Bases (+140)

Getting three divisional rivalries in the divisional round makes props a little easier. We have a good stable of stats from head-to-head matchups from the regular season, helping us choose the best lines. This applies to the Tigers-Guardians.

While Cleveland's order should find some success with Detroit likely leaning on its bullpen, we don't have the Tigers' starter for Game 1 yet. We do know that Tanner Bibee will be on the rubber for the Guardians, and he's struggled against left-handed hitters this season.

Bibee is giving up a .263/.320/.460 slash line against lefties compared to .190/.241/.338 when facing right-handed hitters. Colt Keith is a lefty that failed to record a hit over three at-bats in the Wild Card Round. He's batting .444 with a .667 SLG over nine career at-bats against Bibee, though.

Keith performed well in September too, holding a slash line of .273/.313/.351. Compare that to his regular-season average of .260/.309/.380. Bringing the pick to home plate, Keith bats .310 against four-seam fastballs this season, and Bibee's most-used pitch is a four-seam fastball (43.4% usage).

Considering Bibee's struggles against lefties and Keith's success in September, give me the rookie to record at least two bases.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+370)

Shifting our focus back to the Padres-Dodgers, we should take advantage of Yamamoto's struggles against righties. Tatis feels like the clear answer to go yard, especially when he put up four hits in six at-bats (.667) in the Wild Card Round.

Yamamoto is in the bottom 27% of hard-hit rate allowed and holds 1.0 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) against righties (0.4 when facing lefties). His HR/9 against right-handed hitters is slightly up to 1.2 over his four starts since returning from injury. Yamamoto's season-long 30.7% fly-ball rate allowed has also jumped to 36.4% in this split.

Tatis is mashing to the tune of a .304 batting average against four-seam fastballs, and 9 of his 21 homers have come against this pitch in the 2024 season. Yamamoto's four-seam fastball holds a 40.4% usage (his most-used pitch).

That's trouble, and it only gets worse with Tatis holding a 24.7% home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB) against righties this season. This has gotten even higher over the last 30 days at 35.3%.

After jacking a long ball in Game 1 of the Wild Card round, Tatis has a great chance of opening another series with a tater.

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+300)

The Kansas City Royals' Michael Wacha has been a tough nut to crack when it comes to giving up homers. He's in the top 8% in hard-hit percentage allowed while carrying a 0.9 HR/9. However, there's no better batting order to lean on than the New York Yankees -- who logged the most home runs per game in the regular season.

Wacha posted a 0.9 HR/9 against righties and lefties, so this split isn't going to help much. Fortunately, the Yanks have two elite sluggers in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.

Of the two, Soto is the better pick with Judge holding only one career hit over 18 at-bats against Wacha (.056). Soto has been much better against Wacha in a smaller size, recording two hits over five at-bats (.400).

Pitch usage is probably the biggest bullet point here. Wacha's most-used pitches are changeups (32.2%), four-seam fastballs (23.8%), and sinkers (15.3%). Soto hits .250 against changeups, .325 when seeing fastballs, and .381 against sinkers. The .250 isn't too bad, and the numbers against heaters are absurd. Soto has hit 28 of his 41 homers against these pitches, as well.

Thanks to pitch usage, Soto is the best homer lean in the Yankees' lineup against Wacha.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.