Fair Grounds Race Course Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, 2/15/25

The Fair Grounds Race Course spur of the Kentucky Derby trail intensifies on Saturday, February 15, with the Risen Star Stakes, the first 50-point prep race. This means the winner of the Risen Star is virtually assured a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs. The race has become more important in recent years, and its most recent winner was 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and Blue Grass (G1) winner Sierra Leone.

The card in New Orleans is also one of the best betting events of the year. The Risen Star is the last of 14 races. Six of them are stakes, including four at the graded level. Fillies whose connections dream of the Kentucky Oaks also have a live prep on the card, the Rachel Alexandra (G2).

Make sure to check the program on race day for scratches and changes. It is also a good idea to watch the weather and track conditions throughout the day. There is a slight chance of rain on Saturday, meaning that if it actually comes to fruition, there could be scratches as well as reason to upgrade horses who have run well in the mud.

Fair Grounds Race Course Picks

Race 9: Maiden special weight, 1 1/16 miles on dirt - Only in America, Classic Mac

FanDuel odds: 4-1 and 10-1

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Todd Pletcher doesn’t run at Fair Grounds much except on big stakes days, but with a horse in the Risen Star, he sent a live shipping buddy along for the ride as well. Only in America (4-1) drew toward the inside on debut at Gulfstream and tracked in range of a pace mostly set by Burnham Square. He was no match in the end, but still far clear of the third-place finisher. And, Burnham Square came back to win the Holy Bull (G3) in his next start. The rail plays well at Fari Grounds, he adds Lasix and blinkers (both positive moves for Pletcher), and Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets back in the saddle.

Kenny McPeek often races his runners into shape, though he can pop at a price when debuting a horse at a route distance. With this, it makes sense to consider when he does have a horse with debut promise. Classic Mac (10-1) does. The son of McKinzie is out of the Pulpit mare Simplify: from seven starters, she has three first-out winners and two more who hit the board at first asking. He has no shortage of works leading into the debut, a positive sign for fitness for a route debut. And, jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. is not only running at 25% on the Fair Grounds Race Course meet, but has a flat-bet profit with his main man McPeek in the last two months.

Race 13: Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2), 1 1/16 miles on dirt - Simply Joking, Good Cheer

FanDuel odds: 4-1 and 6-5

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Simply Joking (4-1) comes out of a victory in the Silverbulletday, the previous race on the New Orleans spur of the Kentucky Oaks trail. She won that wire to wire, and may well be fast enough to dictate terms again, especially from a comfortable gate, post 6 in a field of seven. However, as evidenced by her debut victory in the Letellier Memorial Stakes, she can win from a few lengths off the pace as well. Trainer Whit Beckman is having a strong run with his fillies this spring, and can keep it going with her.

Good Cheer (6-5) was undefeated in four starts as a juvenile and will try to pick up where she left off in the Rachel Alexandra. She is trained by Brad Cox, who has won this race three times, including two of the last three editions. She is already a three-time winner at 1 1/16 miles, including once over a wet track. She reliably fires from a few lengths off the pace, even if the pace is sluggish. If Good Cheer has progressed with her class she could be tough.

Race 14: Risen Star Stakes (G2), 1 ⅛ miles on dirt - Built, Seattle Road

FanDuel odds: 5-1 and 30-1

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The morning-line favorite at 9-5 is East Avenue, but in a competitive field of 13, you have to be very strong on a horse to take that kind of price. He may be the only Grade 1 winner in the field, but he hasn’t raced since November. He is also only proven on the front end. With other pace in the field, he will have a difficult time on that preferred trip.

Built (5-1), who won the Gun Runner earlier in the meet, looks strong in this spot. Though he did lead at every call of the Gun Runner, he broke his maiden at Keeneland from a pressing spot and rallied from several lengths off the pace to finish second, beaten only a neck, in the Lecomte (G3) last out. This is the kind of versatility that will serve him well. He has the pedigree for the extra distance, and the good effort in the Lecomte also shows that some rain won’t hurt him.

Though a victory might be a lot to ask, Seattle Road (30-1) deserves a long look for exotics in particular. It took this Tom Amoss trainee a few starts to get going, but he graduated at fourth asking going long at Fair Grounds. Though he was seventh in the Lecomte (G3), he was mired in a tricky far-outside gate and still closed to be beaten less than four lengths in the end. With a sharp pace likely, appealing stamina breeding, and a nice middle post draw? He can outrun his odds and sweeten the intra-race exotics.

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