EFL Cup Final Best Bets for Liverpool vs. Newcastle

The first English silverware of the season will be handed out Sunday at Wembley as Liverpool and Newcastle battle in the EFL Cup Final, a match that starts at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Liverpool enter as a big favorite. Per the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Liverpool are -165 to win in regulation and -320 to lift the cup.

How should you bet Sunday's EFL Cup final?

EFL Cup Final Betting Picks for Liverpool vs. Newcastle

Under 2.5 Goals (+112)

I think there are a few reasons to back this game to be a low-scoring affair.

For one, finals tend to be nervy, tense matchups where teams lean toward being conservative. Five of the past six EFL Cup finals have gone under 2.5 goals, with three of the last four totaling one or zero goals.

Secondly, neither side is at full strength.

Newcastle will be without winger Anthony Gordon, who will be a huge miss in a match where the Magpies would love to be able to utilize his pace on counters. They'll also be without top center-back Sven Botman -- which could result in Newcastle being more hesitant to open up and attack -- as well as full-back Lewis Hall, who has four assists this season.

For Liverpool, defenders Ibrahima Konate and Trent Alexander-Arnold are both expected to be sidelined while their main backups -- Joe Gomez and Conor Bradley -- are also out. Alexander-Arnold is a crucial attacking piece for the Reds and is saddled with a lot of creative responsibility.

On top of that, in addition to missing some key players, Liverpool have to be at least somewhat fatigued -- both mentally and physically -- after Tuesday night's Champions League match with PSG, a second leg that went an extra 30 minutes plus penalties.

Lastly, a low-scoring match is the best path to success for Newcastle, so they should do their part to help keep this under 2.5 goals. Simply put, if Newcastle need to score two or three goals to win, they'll be in trouble, so they'll probably try to make this a 1-0 or 1-1 type of match. If Gordon was playing, the Magpies may feel like they could go toe to toe with Liverpool -- something they did well in a 3-3 EPL clash at St. James' Park earlier this season -- but without him, I think we'll see Newcastle perform more like the February 26th match at Anfield, which ended in a 2-0 loss where Newcastle mustered only 0.2 xG.

All in all, I think goals and chances will be hard to come by in a cup final between two teams that are operating at less than 100%.

Mohamed Salah to Have 1+ Shots on Target From Outside the Box (+200)

Salah mostly ghosted the two legs versus PSG, failing to put a shot on target in either game. He should find more success against Newcastle.

The performances against PSG are a stain on what's been an otherwise stellar season for Salah, who leads the EPL in both goals (27) and assists (17). He has thoroughly enjoyed facing the Magpies, recording two goals and two assists across two matchups with Newcastle. He's taken seven total shots over the two games.

As I talked about above, I'm expecting this to be a low-scoring match, and it will likely be a game where Newcastle spend large chunks of the match without the ball. If the Magpies end up sitting deep in a defensive block, that could give Salah some chances to fire shots from deep.

Plus, without Alexander-Arnold's creative prowess, Liverpool may lean on Salah even more than usual for attacking production, and Salah could take over Trent's free-kick duties -- something that would be big for this market.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.