Early NFL DFS Value Picks for Week 1

Christmas has come early for avid NFL DFS enjoyers as FanDuel has released salaries for the Week 1 main slate. The main slate for Week 1 will include the Sunday night matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions, so that adds an extra wrinkle into deciding how you want to build your lineups.

Before putting together a lineup, it's crucial to find players who can provide value at their salary. Taking advantage of under-salaried players and taking stances on uncertain backfields or receiver rooms in Week 1 can be advantageous.

With a few weeks to go until the first game of the main slate kicks off, let's take a look at players from each position who are a little under-salaried in Week 1.

NFL DFS Value Picks Week 1

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff ($7,500) vs. LAR and Matthew Stafford ($7,300) at DET

There are two games that stand out as game-stacking environments on the main slate, beginning with Rams-Lions on Sunday night. It will be a rematch from last year's NFC Wild Card affair, and the Week 1 contest currently holds the highest projected total (51.5) of the games on the main slate, and the 3.5-point spread means we could get a back-and-forth shootout.

With that in mind, it makes sense that we'd want to have exposure to Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford in this matchup.

Goff will be playing at home in the season opener, which is where he averaged 21.6 FanDuel points and 280.0 passing yards per game while producing a 4.2% completion percentage over expected and 51.4% passing success rate in 2023, via NextGenStats. Meanwhile, he tallied only 14.6 FanDuel points and 259.4 passing yards per game, along with a -1.6% completion percentage over expected and 47.5% passing success rate across nine road games.

Detroit's defense allowed the fourth-most passing FanDuel points per drop back (0.49) last season. Are the Lions' new additions enough to drastically change that? They'll be tested in Week 1 with a healthy Stafford -- who had 20-plus FanDuel points in five of his last seven starts in 2023 -- targeting Puka Nacua ($8,400) and Cooper Kupp ($7,000).

Caleb Williams ($7,100) vs. TEN

Backing a rookie quarterback -- especially a dual-threat one -- can be advantageous in Week 1 as some DFS players may avoid rookies due to not knowing how they'll adjust to the NFL immediately. Among the rookie signal-callers, Caleb Williams stands out with a $7,100 salary versus the Tennessee Titans.

Williams has the shortest odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year by a fairly wide margin, and he'll be playing at home to begin his professional career. Not to mention, he'll take on a new-look Titans team that ranked 30th in completion percentage over expected and 27th in defensive passing success rate in 2023.

It also helps that Williams plenty of weapons to dish the ball to as D.J. Moore ($6,900), Keenan Allen ($6,700), and Rome Odunze ($5,800) all have reasonable salaries.

Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,200) at CIN

At the moment, the New England Patriots are nearly double-digit underdogs to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1. On top of that, the Patriots have an inexperienced receiver room, which means that Rhamondre Stevenson could be busy in the passing game to open the season as New England attempts to keep up with Cincinnati.

Stevenson has averaged three-plus receptions per game in back-to-back seasons, and Antonio Gibson ($5,300) is the only threat to steal touches from him. Provided that, we could see a healthy workload for Stevenson early and often as the Patriots try to figure things out on offense.

Even though New England's offense might not be a high-octane unit, Stevenson has the potential for 20-plus touches and a goal-line role in Week 1 at a $6,200 salary.

Gus Edwards ($6,000) vs. LV

The Los Angeles Chargers expect Justin Herbert ($7,600) to be active in Week 1 despite suffering a plantar fascia injury to his right foot in training camp. Even if Herbert suits up in the season opener, he could very well be limited due to his injury, putting more responsibility on the ground game to be effective.

There is uncertainty surrounding who will start at running back for the Bolts, but I'm leaning toward Gus Edwards being the answer. Edwards is coming off a 2023 campaign where he posted career-best marks in rushing yards (810) and rushing touchdowns (13) while J.K. Dobbins ($5,500) figures to begin the year as Edwards' backup upon returning from a season-ending Achilles injury.

Dobbins has missed 26 games in the last two seasons, so it's tough to expect him to immediately start over Edwards in Los Angeles. Considering that the Chargers are favorites at home in Week 1 over the Las Vegas Raiders, I'll take a chance on Edwards to be leaned on in his LA debut.

Chase Brown ($5,400) vs. NE

It remains to be seen who garners a larger workload between Zack Moss ($6,900) and Chase Brown for the Bengals this season. While Moss was signed to help replace Joe Mixon, Brown provides an explosiveness from the running back position that Moss hasn't shown throughout his career.

In the final five weeks of the 2023 season, Brown flashed his receiving ability by hauling in 11 of his 12 targets for 149 yards and a touchdown. Even with Moss registering career-best marks in rushing yards (794) and rushing touchdowns (5) with the Indianapolis Colts last season, he still failed to record five-plus yards per touch for the sixth straight year to begin his career.

As mentioned above, the Bengals are heavy favorites in Week 1, which could give them a chance to deploy both running backs in various situations. If Brown ends up showing more juice out of the backfield, there's a chance these salaries are flipped moving forward.

Wide Receivers

Chris Godwin ($5,600) vs. WAS

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are largely returning their offense from a season ago aside from offensive coordinator Dave Canales departing to become the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. Liam Coen is set to replace Canales as the play-caller, and one of the first things he mentioned was that he'd be moving Chris Godwin back to the slot more.

Godwin played the fewest slot snaps of his career (335) since 2018 last season under Canales, according to PFF, which led to only 9.79 FanDuel points per game for the veteran wideout. Comparatively, Godwin's most productive seasons came when he was logging 500-plus slot snaps each year from 2019 to 2022, although it obviously helped to have Tom Brady for three of those seasons.

Entering Week 1, Godwin's head-scratching salary likely stems from him scoring just two receiving touchdowns last season. Despite the Washington Commanders hiring defensive-minded Dan Quinn as head coach, they allowed the most FanDuel points per drop back (0.56) and ranked 28th in defensive passing success rate in 2023.

Keon Coleman ($6,000), Khalil Shakir ($5,400), and Curtis Samuel ($5,200) vs. ARI

Josh Allen ($9,200) is always capable of breaking a slate, and the three notable receivers for the Buffalo Bills all come at salaries of $6,000 or lower in Week 1. Allen is projected for the most points among quarterbacks in Week 1, so Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Curtis Samuel are all in play in a home meeting with the Arizona Cardinals.

Coleman is a rookie receiver who may need time to develop, but his size and strong hands could make him an immediate threat to help replace the losses of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. From Week 8 to the end of the postseason, Shakir flashed with a team-high 1.99 yards per route run during that span despite receiving just a 12.8% target share.

Samuel could produce in a gadget-player role, allowing him to get touches out of the backfield or out wide. Making a stand on which Bills receiver -- or receivers -- will emerge early in the season could be a worthwhile strategy in Week 1.

Tight Ends

Brock Bowers ($5,400) at LAC

Rookie tight ends can take a bit of time to get acclimated in the NFL, but Brock Bowers could be an exception. Bowers figures to make an immediate impact for the Raiders' aerial attack as the team lacks reliable options outside of Davante Adams ($7,500) and Jakobi Meyers ($5,100).

Of the tight ends who saw 50-plus targets in college last year, Bowers had the 11th-most yards per reception (12.8), 3rd-most yards after the catch per reception (8.7), and the most yards per route run (2.65). Bowers being taken with the 13th overall pick in this year's draft indicates that the Raiders have big plans for the first-year pass-catcher.

A game stack of Gus Edwards and Bowers isn't the worst idea if the Chargers are expected to maintain a lead for most of the contest.

Colby Parkinson ($4,700) at DET

Colby Parkinson hasn't been talked about much this offseason, but he should begin the season as the starting tight end for the Rams as Tyler Higbee recovers from a torn ACL. Besides targets being funneled to Nacua and Kupp, Parkinson could be a viable options for Matthew Stafford -- especially in the red zone.

During the offseason, Parkinson signed a three-year, $22.5 million contract with LA, giving him just $1 million less annually than Higbee. This indicates that the Rams envision Parkinson having a solid role in the offense for the foreseeable future.

Once again, getting exposure to the Rams-Lions clash on Sunday Night Football seems ideal in Week 1 given the game's lofty total and tight spread. If Parkinson finds the end zone or hauls in four or five passes, he could be one of the best point-per-dollar plays at the position to begin the season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.