Dolphins at Packers Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for Thanksgiving
The Thanksgiving Slate wraps up with a Thursday night clash between the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Per the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Packers are 3.5-point favorites, and the total is set at 47.5 points.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Dolphins at Packers NFL DFS Picks
MVP Candidates
This is a really fun slate for MVP options as there are a handful of solid MVP picks.
Both quarterbacks are clearly in play. Jordan Love ($12,500) projects as the slightly better option between the two. His passing yards prop is 240.5, compared to 235.5 for Tua Tagovailoa ($14,000), and he's -115 to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns (Tua is +122). Neither QB offers much as a runner, and both have plenty of weapons to throw to. Given the salaries and how this Miami offense looked in the cold at Kansas City in last year's postseason, Love is where I lean.
The running backs are nice MVP picks, too. Josh Jacobs ($13,500) just broke last week's main slate with 106 rushing yards and 3 TDs en route to 31.6 FanDuel points. He's topped 21.0 FanDuel points in three of his last four outings and is getting fed. His rushing plus receiving yards prop is 89.5, and his -165 anytime touchdown odds pace the slate. The only negative is that Jacobs could be crazy popular after his three-score game.
De'Von Achane ($15,500) has been amazing lately, too. While the salary is the highest of the slate (by $1,500), he warrants it as he's put up at least 18.5 FanDuel points in four of his past five outings. Achane can make splash plays as a runner or a pass-catcher, and he'll be heavily involved regardless of game script as he's averaging 5.2 catches per game over the previous five contests. His rushing plus receiving yards prop is 88.5, and Achane is -115 to find the end zone.
The last player in my MVP pool is Tyreek Hill ($13,000). I am always drawn to high-upside guys who won't be popular MVP plays, and I think that's Tyreek on Thursday. We know what kind of ceiling he has. Given his recent outputs as well as the other quality MVP picks on this slate, Hill should go overlooked in the multiplier slot. His receiving yards prop is at 61.5, and he's +150 to score a TD.
Flex Targets
Starting with the Miami side, Jaylen Waddle ($11,000) and Jonnu Smith ($10,500) won't sneak up on anyone after what they did last week. Waddle blew up for 8 catches, 144 yards and a tuddie, snapping a lengthy streak of quiet weeks. Jonnu is coming off outbursts in each of the last two weeks, posting 28.1 and 19.2 FanDuel points via 188 total receiving yards and 3 TDs over that two-game run. Both Waddle and Smith have receiving yards props of 43.5 yards.
The Packers are likely to be sans Romeo Doubs ($8,000), which narrows their target tree a bit and likely boosts Dontayvion Wicks ($8,000) as much as anyone. Wicks saw a 76% snap rate the last time Doubs missed a game. Wicks has failed to top a 54% snap rate since, so he's a nice value piece.
Jayden Reed ($11,500) and Christian Watson ($10,000) should run as the Packers' top two wideouts. Reed has popped for some big games, but he's seen three or fewer targets in three of his last four games. Reed's receiving yards prop is set at 50.5. Watson's target count is a little better -- at least four in three of the past four games -- and he went off for 150 yards two games ago. Watson also dropped a likely 49-yard TD last time out, but his big-play upside is enticing on a single-game slate.
Tucker Kraft ($9,500) has a touchdown in three of his last five games. That's the good. The bad is that he's logged only 16 total targets over that span, including just three combined looks over the last two weeks. His receiving yards prop is 33.5.
I'm more interested in throwing a dart at the D/STs than I am either kicker. The weather -- 12 MPH winds, snow flurries and 32 degrees -- is less than ideal for Jason Sanders ($8,500) and Brandon McManus ($9,000). Admittedly, it's not a particularly good spot for either defense, but given Miami's cold-weather woes from last year, the Green Bay D/ST ($9,000) is worth a look.
In terms of values, there's not much to get excited about other than Wicks. If I had to roster someone under $8,000, I think I'd roll the dice on Bo Melton ($7,500). He's +550 to score a touchdown, the best TD odds for anyone under $8,000. He played 32% of the snaps last week, so he'll at least be out there a decent amount.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.