Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Week 1
The NFL is finally back, and the Week 1 main slate on FanDuel is quite intriguing.
There are a few standout games destined to generate fantasy points -- and some middle-of-the-road games we'll need to take a long look at in order to see where we can find even more production.
Let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Week 1 FanDuel main slate.
Slate Overview
Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds, and opponent defensive ranks for overall defense, pass defense, and rush defense, based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model.
Team | Opponent | Implied Total | Spread | Over/Under | Opp D Rank | Opp Pass D Rank | Opp Rush D Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAL | HOU | 26.75 | -10.0 | 43.5 | 26 | 17 | 23 |
LAC | MIA | 26.75 | -3.0 | 50.5 | 19 | 17 | 16 |
MIN | TB | 25.75 | -6.0 | 45.5 | 6 | 12 | 5 |
SEA | LA | 25.5 | -5.5 | 45.5 | 15 | 22 | 18 |
CIN | @CLE | 25 | -2.5 | 47.5 | 24 | 12 | 25 |
JAC | @IND | 25 | -4.5 | 45.5 | 19 | 24 | 13 |
PHI | @NE | 24.5 | -4.0 | 45.0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
FanDuel Salary: $8,100
vs. Dolphins
Tied for a slate-high implied team total at 26.75 points, the Los Angeles Chargers are in the game of the week against the Miami Dolphins. The total there is 50.5 points, and the spread is just -3.0 in the Chargers' favor. That suggests a high-scoring and back-and-forth type of matchup, which is ripe for fantasy goodness.
Justin Herbert is a prime touchdown regression candidate for the 2023 NFL season, and that could start as early as this Sunday against a team that ranked 17th against the pass last season by numberFire's metrics.
Herbert, in 11 games last season against teams that were below-average against the pass, averaged 290.0 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. We have the building blocks for an eruption game in Week 1 for Herbert -- paired with expectations of better touchdown luck. Miami also ranked 30th in yards per target allowed on downfield passes (10-plus air yards) in 2022.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
FanDuel Salary: $6,700
vs. Jaguars
Based on the predictability and huge ceiling of the high-salaried quarterbacks we typically have on the main slate, value passers are generally risky. But Anthony Richardson has a path to upside for a sub-$7,000 salary in a game that is very appealing.
Richardson's Indianapolis Colts are 4.5-point home underdogs against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Jacksonville generated a top-three pressure rate in 2022, via NFL's NextGenStats. They should keep Richardson on the move, which is not a bad thing given his rushing potential.
numberFire's model projects Richardson for 9.8 rushing attempts and 54.4 rushing yards against the Jaguars, who ranked 22nd in rushing success rate allowed to quarterbacks last season.
Others to Consider
Lamar Jackson ($8,900 vs. HOU) - Elite implied team total and rushing potential; blowout risk is the only real concern.
Joe Burrow ($7,900 at CLE) - Second-best game of the week; could be overlooked due to calf injury.
Geno Smith ($7,200 vs. LAR) - Following up a career year, Smith gets a low-pressure team that was 29th in EPA per drop back allowed.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
FanDuel Salary: $7,800
vs. Panthers
Bijan Robinson won't have the easiest on-paper matchup on the ground in Week 1. The Carolina Panthers ranked 8th in rushing success rate allowed to RBs last season -- but they were 26th in rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) allowed to backs, as well.
That means some explosive plays are there to be had, and Robinson's athleticism suggests he can bust off a few of those himself.
Robinson ran the ball just four times in the preseason and totaled 20 yards, including a 12-yard jaunt on his first carry. He also caught his lone target for six more yards. In all, Robinson had a carry or target on 5 of 12 snaps. That'll work.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
FanDuel Salary: $7,500
at Browns
The Cincinnati Bengals/Cleveland Browns matchup this week is second only to the Chargers/Dolphins game in terms of over/under, so it's natural to want to look at this matchup for fantasy plays.
Joe Mixon's snap rate dwindled after a mid-season injury and a good performance from Samaje Perine last season, and Mixon saw roughly a 60-40 split after returning in Week 14.
This season, though, Mixon is not flanked by Perine and should start off the campaign more like he did last year when he ripped off snap rates of 66.7% or better in each of his first nine games and ultimately held a 72.9% overall snap rate before the injury.
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
FanDuel Salary: $6,500
vs. Texans
J.K. Dobbins is another way to get access to the Baltimore Ravens' offense this week.
He should get a lot of late-game carries if the spread pans out as expected.
Last season, Dobbins had a 42.9% snap rate in his active games, as the Ravens rarely give their running backs a huge workload. That's a big reason why the salary is in the $6,000 range, though.
The Houston Texans ranked 31st in RYOE per carry allowed to backs in 2022, letting RBs average 0.97 yards over expectation on a per-carry basis. It's a juicy matchup, and Dobbins' path to multiple scores is really just a matter of how many snaps he gets.
Others to Consider
Austin Ekeler ($9,000 vs. MIA) - Upside is always off the charts and is in a game that could feature a lot of points.
Alexander Mattison ($7,300 vs. TB) - Workload should be there in a positive script.
Raheem Mostert ($5,900 at LAC) - Chargers were elite rushing matchup last year; solid volume projection for Week 1.
Wide Receivers
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
FanDuel Salary: $8,500
at Browns
Another Bengal? Yeah, and here's why.
Chase is in the second-best game of the week by over/under, and his salary is a big step down from that of Justin Jefferson's ($9,500).
Chase, in games with both he and Tee Higgins playing at least half of the team's snaps in 2022, had a 98.0% route rate and averaged 9.9 targets per game (27.1%).
That included 4.4 downfield targets per game and 1.5 red zone targets per game for a team-best 25.4% red zone target share.
Chase also carved up the Browns in his only game against them: 15 targets, 10 catches, 119 yards, and 1 touchdown.
Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
FanDuel Salary: $7,000
at Colts
Calvin Ridley's debut with the Jaguars is coming indoors against the Colts, and domes have a positive impact overall on receiver output.
Indianapolis ranked in the middle of the pack against receivers across various metrics in 2022.
Ridley is slated to push for eight-plus targets (by numberFire's projections) in the Jaguars' offense, which holds a top-five implied team total on the week (25.0 points).
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
FanDuel Salary: $6,800
vs. Rams
The season-long outlook for Tyler Lockett will be one to track, as the team brought in an elite prospect in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but JSN had wrist surgery this offseason (though is back at practice in some capacity).
The surgery could lead to a dampened Week 1 role for the rookie, thus keeping Lockett in a great position for the opener at a $6,800 salary.
Lockett averaged 9.5 targets, 6.5 catches, 91.0 yards, and 1.0 touchdowns in two games against the Los Angeles Rams a year ago, and the volume projection should be high for Lockett again in the Seahawks' opening matchup.
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
FanDuel Salary: $5,900
vs. Raiders
Courtland Sutton's first season with Russell Wilson under center wasn't nearly as good as it could've been.
He can get things turned around in Week 1 this year, though.
Jerry Jeudy's status for Week 1 is unclear, and even if he plays, he is unlikely to be at 100%.
In 2022, Sutton had a three-game stretch during which he played at least half the snaps and Jeudy didn't.
In those three games, Sutton had a 95.5% route rate and a 92.2% snap rate as well as 9.3 targets and 85.8 receiving yards per game. He just didn't happen to score. A 29.1% target share and a 37.9% air yards share for a sub-$6,000 salary is very enticing.
Others to Consider
Justin Jefferson ($9,500 vs. TB) - Can break open a slate, and value at QB and RB allow us to roster him fairly easily.
Chris Olave ($7,300 vs. TEN) - Team's WR1 with a QB upgrade.
Amari Cooper ($6,700 vs. CIN) - 25.2% target share after Deshaun Watson's Week 13 debut.
Marvin Mims ($4,700 vs. LV) - Could see extra volume with Jeudy not 100%.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
FanDuel Salary: $8,000
vs. Texans
Value at all positions exists, and thinking about ways to utilize that is important. Stacking Mark Andrews with Lamar Jackson is a way to do that.
Andrews had a 27.8% target share through Week 12 last year to help account for Jackson's health, and that translated into a per-game line of 7.9 targets, 60.1 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns.
The Texans were worse than average in yards per route run and about average in adjusted fantasy points per target allowed to the position a year ago, as well.
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
FanDuel Salary: $5,300
at Seahawks
Tyler Higbee's salary is appealing for the lineups that aren't centered on the stud tight ends.
Higbee should see a target bump with Cooper Kupp ruled out.
In eight games without Kupp last season, Higbee led the Rams with a 21.6% target share -- albeit turning his 5.4 targets per game into 29.4 yards per game. That was paired with a catch rate over expectation of -8.8%.
Things can't stay quite that bad forever, and the low salary puts Higbee firmly in the TE conversation for Week 1.
Others to Consider
Evan Engram ($5,800 at IND) - 7th among TEs in yards per game (45.1) last season; indoor environment.
Luke Musgrave ($4,500 at CHI) - Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs banged up; 7 targets on 75 offensive snaps in preseason.
Defenses
Washington Commanders
FanDuel Salary: $4,900
vs. Cardinals
Perhaps the safest defense of the week is the Washington Commanders, who are hosting the Arizona Cardinals with Joshua Dobbs expected to start at quarterback.
Washington was a top-five pressure rate team and a top-10 adjusted pass defense in 2022, and their status as 7.0-point home favorites suggests a lot of drop backs from Dobbs and a depleted Cardinals offense.
Green Bay Packers
FanDuel Salary: $4,100
at Bears
While implied team totals and scoring have a general impact on fantasy defenses, a big predictor of defensive success comes from sacks and interceptions.
Justin Fields 's 14.7% sack rate was -- by far -- the highest of any quarterback in 2022, and his 3.5% interception rate was also fantasy friendly (for defenses).
Others to Consider
Seattle Seahawks ($4,200 vs LAR) - Rams are without Kupp; Seattle favored at home.
Cincinnati Bengals ($3,900 at CLE) - Watson took a lot of sacks last year; high-scoring games can lead to defensive volume (sacks and turnovers).
Be sure to check out all of the Week 1 daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel, including the $4M NFL Sunday Million for a chance to win $1 million for a $5 entry.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.