Daily Fantasy Baseball: Analyzing Trends in Past Perfect FanDuel MLB Lineups
The pursuit of perfection is elusive, but we sure can learn from it.
So why not look at perfect FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups from the 2023 season (up to the All-Star break) and examine trends that exist in optimal lineups?
I don't see a reason not to, either, so let's dig in.
Perfect FanDuel MLB Lineups
To clarify, perfect lineups (or optimal lineups) are the best possible combination we could have on a single slate.
Maximizing FanDuel points scored while staying under the salary cap should always be our goal when constructing lineups, and looking back at how perfect lineups could've been constructed will inform us of trends that start to emerge.
The sample here is 102 lineups.
Pitcher Trends in Perfect FanDuel MLB Lineups
Let's start with the pitcher position and look at some averages across the 102 pitchers in the perfect lineups.
These all check out.
Notably, implied run totals (or expected runs scored) for perfect-lineup pitcher opponents is lower than the slate's average by 0.36 runs.
The pitchers who make the perfect lineup have a pretty solid strikeout rate on average, too, at 24.0%.
We should also expect that the pitchers' in-game stat lines that lead to a perfect lineup appearance come from few earned runs allowed and a lot of strikeouts.
Is that what we get?
Roughly a nine-strikeout game with barely any earned runs? That makes sense.
But the strikeouts really stand out.
Only 6 of 102 perfect-lineup pitchers (5.9%) recorded fewer than 6 strikeouts. Of those 6 pitchers, 5 of them had at least 7.2 innings thrown and no earned runs allowed, so it was a volume approach to scoring points.
Simply put, de-emphasizing strikeout upside is probably not the best long-term idea.
Small Slate Notes for Pitchers
Naturally, we could expect different requirements to reach the perfect lineup with fewer choices.
Of the 102 slates in my database, 24 had six or fewer games.
In these, honestly, not much changes.
The average inning tally (7.0) for pitchers in small-slate perfect lineups is virtually the same as the full-slate number (7.1).
Earned runs go up a little (0.75 from 0.66) because pitchers don't have to be as perfect and beat out a lot of pitchers to make the optimal.
But strikeouts are still elevated (8.7 from 8.9).
And the average salary ($9,388) actually goes up -- likely because we have fewer chances of value pitchers overperforming and being prime candidates for the perfect lineup.
Batter Trends in Perfect FanDuel MLB Lineups
As far as batters go, we probably expect that we need to see home runs, plate appearances, and RBI.
That tracks.
With a 34.7-point FanDuel average across perfect-lineup hitters, there's not much room for error in the chase for perfection.
Hitters, on average, are 4.33 in their team's batting order, which is about as close to average as you can get, which is interesting -- to say the least.
Here's a snapshot of the breakdown by batting order slot: both average salary and the percentage of perfect lineup hitters from each slot.
Interestingly, the hitter in the 3-hole has a lower-than-expected hit rate for the perfect lineups; it's the same (11.8%) as the 5-hitter.
Now, the power game is a huge component of all of this. Perfect-lineup hitters average 0.97 homers, and 81.0% of hitters in the optimal lineup did go yard in that game.
They also averaged 6.3 total bases in their perfect-lineup appearances.
And then there's the opponent pitcher component.
Opposing pitchers for perfect-lineup hitters had a low strikeout rate of 21.7% entering that matchup (a full percentage point lower than the 2023 league average through the break).
Park factor increases helped, too, and implied run totals better than the daily average did the same.
While none of this is astonishing, it's nice to see the typical staples of lineup building -- a low-strikeout pitcher, the potential for power, a good park factor, and an elevated run total -- actually lead to appearances in the perfect lineup.
Stacks in Perfect FanDuel MLB Lineups
While stacking, in general, makes sense for daily baseball lineups due to the correlation of runs scored and RBI and just generally taking advantage of good hitting situations, it wouldn't be that shocking to see a low probability of stacks in perfect lineups.
After all, perfect lineups are able to nitpick the slate and pick out only the best performances, which means a big game from one hitter from a team that otherwise struggled could be enough for an optimal appearance.
But stacks are still prevalent in perfect lineups.
MLB Optimal Averages | Value |
---|---|
Unique Stacks | 1.66 |
Lineups With 2-Player Stack | 81.4% |
Lineups With 3-Player Stack | 23.5% |
Lineups With 4-Player Stack | 6.9% |
Lineups With Any Stack | 90.2% |
More than 90% of lineups in the sample here had a stack of any sort, and we average more than 1.6 stacks per lineup. That doesn't mean many lineups comprise two different four-player stacks or anything, but correlations matter.
MLB Perfect Lineup Summary
Sometimes, a dive into data like this doesn't necessarily unveil truly unique information, and I'd argue that this doesn't really uncover too much in the way of jaw-dropping takeaways -- but that's okay.
Confirming the importance of strikeout upside for pitchers and power for hitters should have us second-guessing any tendencies we have to roster players who don't fit those trends.
So just keep that in mind before a low-strikeout value pitcher draws you in or you round out your lineup with too many hitters who lack home-run power.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.