Over the past few seasons, we’ve seen a number of exciting wide receivers change teams via trade and break out for fantasy football. DeAndre Hopkins smashed for the Arizona Cardinals, Stefon Diggs reached his ceiling with the Buffalo Bills, and Tyreek Hill nearly broke records in his first year with the Miami Dolphins.

But D.J. Moore, now a member of the Chicago Bears, is not likely to experience that same kind of breakout.

In fantasy drafts, Moore is going on average as the 50th overall player, making him the WR23. That average draft position (ADP) makes him one of the biggest fades in the early phases of 2023 drafts.

D.J. Moore Fantasy Football Projection

(All projections via numberFire.com)

Projected Fantasy Points: 165.1 (136.1 in 2022)

Position Rank: WR29

2023 Projected Stats:

• 111.1 targets
• 70.1 receptions
• 890.5 receiving yards
• 6.9 receiving touchdowns

D.J. Moore Fantasy Football Outlook

A Bear Market on the Bears

Before we dig in too deep, let’s preface by saying this: the Chicago Bears could be one of the most exciting teams to watch in 2023 with an ascending Justin Fields at quarterback.

Niceties out of the way, it needs to be said that Moore will be far more valuable to the Bears and Fields than he will be for fantasy football.

The Bears ran only 993 offensive plays in the 2022 season. Only the Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers ran fewer plays across a full spate of games. Even the Bills and Cincinnati Bengals ran more offensive plays than Chicago despite the cancellation of their Week 17 game.

The Bears' offense becomes even narrower when viewed through the lens of the passing game. Their 377 pass attempts ranked dead last in the NFL and were almost 40 fewer attempts than the 31st-ranked Atlanta Falcons’ 415.

The team’s top receivers last season -- Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet -- averaged 41.1 and 32 receiving yards per game in 2022. There was so little passing volume to go around on a weekly basis that the team failed to produce even a single 100-yard receiving game. It was unreal how unproductive their passing offense was.

It needs to be said that the team’s pass-catchers behind Mooney and Kmet left much to be desired and that the addition of Moore (and a healthy Chase Claypool) should be a massive improvement over the group they trotted out last year.

But even a massively-improved Bears offense isn’t a particularly great environment for fantasy points -- and fantasy football is all about those points.

A Bears WR1 Is Not a WR1 for Fantasy

The Bears should run more plays in 2023 than they did in 2022. It’s simply hard to pass as infrequently as the team did last year.

But Fields’ biggest advantage as a quarterback -- his league-best ability to turn scrambles into long rushing touchdowns -- takes passing volume out of their offense. It turns dropbacks into quarterback rushing yards instead of pass attempts and receiving yards.

Even if the team’s overall play volume regresses toward the league’s average, the Bears will still be liable to run fewer passing plays than most of the league.

The lack of passing volume cuts out a substantial fantasy points floor for any pass-catcher on the Bears. Most fantasy leagues give players at least 0.5 fantasy points per reception. If Bears receivers are catching fewer passes than most receivers on other teams, they’ll need to produce with elite efficiency to keep up on the fantasy scoreboard.

The Bears’ 377 pass attempts last year were almost 200 fewer on the season than the league’s average of 564.7. There’s substantial room there for the team to throw more passes while still ranking as a bottom-five offense in total pass attempts. For example, if the Bears were to attempt an additional 100 more passes next year -- a marked improvement -- they would still rank in the bottom five.

The other four teams in that ballpark of pass attempts last year were the Baltimore Ravens, Titans, Falcons, and Panthers. If you think back on those teams in 2022, were there many wide receivers who you wanted on your fantasy squads?

If you’re paying attention, you likely noticed that Moore’s previous team made that list. Moore was far and away the Panthers’ best pass-catcher last season, finishing the year with 63 receptions for 888 yards and 7 touchdowns. That amounted to 9.9 fantasy points per game, the 34th-best rate among receivers in 2022.

As well as Moore is at playing wide receiver, he’s unlikely to magically produce more fantasy points on less receiving volume than he did a season ago.

Hate the Game, Not the Player

There’s no denying that Moore is a fantastic NFL player.

He broke 1,100 receiving yards in three straight seasons in Panthers offenses that lacked any real passing game besides him, and he managed to score seven touchdowns last year while catching passes from Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and P.J. Walker -- more than double the touchdowns of any other Panthers receiver.

Moore is going to be an incredible addition to the Bears’ offense this year and could play an integral role in unlocking Fields’ upside as a passer.

As good as he is, though, Moore is still saddled with being a member of the Bears’ anemic passing offense. Even if he helps the team take a massive step forward, his own receiving numbers -- and fantasy football output -- will trail the contribution he makes to his NFL squad.

Moore has been as reliable as they come at the wide receiver position in fantasy in recent years, but he's a wide receiver to avoid at his current ADP this summer.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.