The Minnesota Vikings have lost two straight and will look to right the ship at home versus the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night. The Vikings are 5.5-point favorites, and the matchup is showing a 46.5 over/under, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Colts at Vikings NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

Justin Jefferson ($16,500) has the slate's highest salary, and he's about as consistent as they come at wide receiver. He's averaging 17.3 FanDuel points per game while leading Minnesota in yards per route run (3.21), target share (34.1%), air yards share (44.7%), and end zone target share (45.5%). Add in Indianapolis ranking 26th in schedule-adjusted pass defense, per numberFire's metrics, and it's easy to click on Jefferson's name at MVP.

Jefferson's quarterback, Sam Darnold ($14,000), is showing the top score in our NFL DFS projections and will also be able to take advantage of this inviting matchup. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs, Darnold ranks fourth in both completion percentage over expected (4.7%) and yards per attempt (8.5), according to NFL Next Gen Stats. While Darnold will presumably be a popular MVP play, we've seen him exceed 20 FanDuel points three times already this season.

Aaron Jones ($12,000) also projects well and hopefully doesn't see an elevated MVP roster percentage as a player with a fantastic role but who hasn't necessarily popped in the box score as much. Across his six full games, Jones has averaged 24.2 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) for 112.5 scrimmage yards per game. Despite scoring just three touchdowns, when factoring in both targets and carries in the red zone (RZ), he's also sporting an elite 50.0% red zone opportunity share.

Most recently, Jones logged a season-high 92.0% snap rate, another encouraging sign for his outlook. While the Colts' rush defense rates well in some efficiency metrics, the fact is they've allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (151.9), so we should expect the Vikings to utilize Jones early and often.

Jonathan Taylor ($15,500) returned to play in Week 8, and he didn't disappoint, rumbling his way to 21.2 FanDuel points. Overall, he's averaging 22.8 adjusted opportunities and 108.6 scrimmage yards with a 40.9% RZ opportunity share. The bad news is he's up against numberFire's top-ranked adjusted rush defense, which has allowed the eighth-fewest FanDuel points per game to RBs.

Joe Flacco ($13,500) is starting for Indianapolis, and he's up against a well-schemed Brian Flores defense, one that blitzes at the league's second-highest clip (42.1%) and leads the league in interceptions (12). However, the Vikings still allow a lot of passing yardage, which has led to giving up the eighth-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks. Flacco has performed well in limited time this season, averaging 0.11 expected points added per drop back, and he proved he can still hit a lofty ceiling when he threw for 359 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 5.

If you want to take a stab at an Indy wideout leading the game in scoring, Josh Downs ($11,000) is the top choice. In Flacco's two previous starts, Downs averaged 10.5 targets with a 25.9% share. While his 16.9% air yards share in those games is less exciting, he's facing a defense that's allowed that most FanDuel points per game to WRs.

Flex Targets

Jordan Addison ($10,500) -- Since returning from injury in Week 4, Addison has posted an 84.4% route rate, 18.3% target share, and 32.0% air yards share. However, he's been held to single-digit FanDuel points in three straight games.

Michael Pittman Jr. ($10,000) -- Pittman's best game of the season came in Week 4 when both Anthony Richardson and Flacco combined to target Pittman 9 times on his way to 113 receiving yards. But he's dealt with a nagging back issue for most of the season -- injured reserve was a possibility in early October -- and has logged just a 17.9% target share and 1.14 yards per route run in the four games since, two of which Flacco started. Still, he practiced in full on Thursday and projects for the slate's third-most targets (7.7).

T.J. Hockenson ($9,500) -- Hockenson is practicing in full and is expected to make his 2024 debut. Barring any specific details coming out by Sunday, it's difficult to predict how much work he'll get, making him a wild card.

Alec Pierce ($9,500) -- In Flacco's pair of starts, Pierce caught 3-of-3 targets for 134 yards and a TD in one and went without a catch on 4 targets in the other. That's about as boom or bust as they come. He had a meager 8.6% target share in that sample but averaged 3.5 deep targets (10+ air yards) for a 30.6% air yards share.

Minnesota Vikings D/ST ($9,000) -- While this isn't as good a matchup for the Minnesota D with Flacco replacing Richardson, Flacco should at least pass more often, which will give this unit a chance at accumulating sacks and turnovers.

Will Reichard ($9,000) and Matt Gay ($8,000) -- Given the 46.5-point total, this probably won't be the type of low-scoring contest that props up the kickers. That being said, these two will be kicking indoors, and Reichard hasn't missed an attempt all season.

Ty Chandler ($8,500) -- Chandler's role has evaporated with Aaron Jones fully healthy. In Week 8, Chandler logged a 4.0% snap rate and saw zero touches. An injury to Jones looks like the only way he'll have any fantasy value going forward.

Jalen Nailor ($7,500) -- Nailor's snaps have been up and down since Addison returned, resulting in a modest 10.6% target share over the past four games. Hockenson's presence could further reduce his opportunities.

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