College Football Playoff: 4 Best Bets to Target for the First Round

Each week in college football, there are tons of games available to us.

While this can be a bit overwhelming, it also gives us plentiful spots we can target when searching for betting value. From the biggest games of the week all the way on down, we're never lacking for options.

This weekend gives us our first glimpse of the much-anticipated 12-team College Football Playoff. The bracket begins with four first round matchups, featuring true home games for each contest. These should be some of the best atmospheres college football has to offer with everything on the line.

Initially, it could seem like an underwhelming round of games with each home team favored by at least a touchdown. However, several of these clashes should still be competitive while others could even end up with closer margins than most expect. Across Friday night's lone matchup and Saturday's three-game slate, which lines stand out the most in the first round of the College Football Playoff?

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for the first round of the playoffs?

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Playoff First Round Betting Picks

No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers at No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Under 51.5 Points (-105)

Starting with Friday night's game between the Indiana Hoosiers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish, we have an in-state clash between two squads that have not met since 1991.

Notre Dame is drawing some hype headed into the postseason, ranked as the fourth-best team across college football in NET EPA per play. College Football Data's Elo Ratings even gives the Fighting Irish the best chance in this 12-team field to play in the national championship (43.7%) and win the national championship (28.1%). Notre Dame's +390 odds to make the CFP championship game is my favorite futures bet of the postseason.

However, the Hoosiers are no slouch at 11-1 while sitting ninth in NET EPA per play -- which is the sixth-best mark in the field and only one spot behind the Georgia Bulldogs. Still, taking a side on the spread is challenging as Indiana is 9-3 against the spread (ATS) while Notre Dame carries a 10-2 ATS record.

Ultimately, under 51.5 points feels like the most promising bet of this matchup. Each defense is suited to take away the opposing offense's strength.

For example, the Fighting Irish lean on the run game with a 55.7% rush-play rate (top 31%) along with 6.3 yards per carry (second-most). Indiana ranks 11th in EPA allowed per rushing attempt and surrenders only 2.6 yards per carry (2nd-fewest) and 76.2 rushing yards per contest (the fewest). The best rushing attack the Hoosiers have seen was courtesy of the Ohio State Buckeyes (eighth in EPA per carry), and IU held OSU to 4.0 yards per rushing attempt compared to the Buckeyes' season average of 5.0.

On the other side of the ball, Indiana is fourth in EPA per drop back and logs 9.2 yards per passing attempt (fifth-most). This has been the crown jewel of the Hoosiers' offense as the run game totals only 4.2 yards per game (bottom 47%). If anyone has an answer, it's the Irish as Notre Dame owns the nation's top pass defense by EPA allowed while giving up a measly 5.6 yards per passing attempt (second-fewest).

With each offense's strength potentially limited, we should get fewer points than expected. numberFire's college football game projections have the two teams combining for about 44 points, giving the under a 66.1% likelihood of hitting. These -105 odds for the under sport a 51.2% implied probability at the line of 51.5, so going by numberFire, we're getting great value with this pick.

Indiana covering would be a good pairing for the under, as well. College Football Nerds' prediction model produces some interesting results with the Hoosiers winning 20.6-19.8 on the road.

No. 11 SMU Mustangs at No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions

SMU +8.5 (-108)
Over 53.5 Points (-115)

Similar to Notre Dame, the Penn State Nittany Lions are battling the perception that they cannot win a big game. The SMU Mustangs are a dangerous opponent that could put Penn State on upset alert.

Starting with SMU's defense, it's excelling in the ideal area, ranking fifth in EPA allowed per rushing attempt. The Nittany Lions love to run the rock, totaling 5.3 yards per carry (top 11%) and 202.2 rushing yards per game (top 12%) paired with a 56.7% rush-play rate (top 25%). PSU's attack should at least be slowed as the Mustangs are allowing only 2.8 yards per carry (third-fewest) and 98.3 rushing yards per game (seventh-fewest).

This game could hinge on the arm of quarterback Drew Allar, who recently informed his team he will be back for the 2025 season. This is a dangerous passing attack with the Lions logging 8.8 yards per passing attempt (ninth-most) paired with Allar's 86.8 player grade and 84.1 passing grade, via Pro Football Focus. Plus, Tyler Warren -- the reigning Mackey Award winner -- is one of the nation's most lethal tight ends and ranks 18th on NFL Mock Draft Data Base's 2025 Consensus Big Board.

Ultimately, the Lions' passing game will likely prove to be too much in this one, leading to a win. Still, give me Southern Methodist to cover on the road. If PSU has to focus on airing it out, this could make for more overall plays in the game. This goes right into the SMU's pace of play as it is in the top 14% for the fewest seconds per play compared to the Nittany Lions in the top 22% for the most seconds per play.

A quarterback duel should keep this one close, and if this approaches shootout territory, this could turn into a tossup. The 'Stangs certainly have a passing attack that's capable, sporting 8.6 yards per passing attempt (13th-most), led by Kevin Jennings (86.7 player grade; 86.1 passing grade). Slowing Penn State's pass rush (seventh-best grade) -- which is spearheaded by Abdul Carter, who is fourth on the 2025 Consensus Big Board -- will likely be the biggest worry for SMU. Fortunately, the Mustangs feature solid pass protection, ranking 21st in pass blocking grade.

If Jennings gets time in the pocket, Southern Methodist should find success as Penn State is ninth in EPA allowed per drop back compared to sixth against the run. Additionally, the Lions allow 6.2 yards per passing attempt (top 16%) and 3.3 yards per rushing attempt (top 9%). This is an elite defense across the board, but the secondary has looked a tad more vulnerable than the front seven.

The Mustangs sit ninth in EPA per drop back. Penn State has seen two teams in the top 10 of this category: the Ohio State Buckeyes (third) and Oregon Ducks (seventh). Ohio State totaled 7.6 yards per passing attempt while Oregon reached 8.8 against the Nittany Lions. This secondary has struggled when facing elite passing attacks -- something SMU certainly has.

With that said, the Mustangs' team total of 21.5 also deserves some attention. They have not been held under 28 points since September 6. With two teams in the top 10 of EPA per drop back, we could have plenty of points ahead -- hence the weekend-high 53.5-point total.

Along with overs across the board, SMU feels like a good cover. A back-and-forth high-scoring game could mean a thrilling finish down to the last minute. College Football Nerds actually projects a 2.5-point win for SMU.

No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes

Under 46.5 Points (-110)

The Tennessee Volunteers traveling to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes is probably the most anticipated matchup of the first round. SEC and Big Ten matchups always seem to draw a bit more hype compared to other non-conference meetings, and there's some intrigue with the Volunteers traveling to cold conditions -- temperatures in the low 20s.

The Buckeyes have been labeled as the nation's most talented team, but they've disappointed with losses to the Oregon Ducks and Michigan Wolverines. OSU still leads college football in NET EPA per play and carries the third-shortest national championship odds (+500).

With 74% of spread bets at FanDuel Sportsbook coming in on Tennessee, the Buckeyes are becoming an intriguing bet to cover the spread. Betting on supreme talent this time of year can bode success, and College Football Nerds pegs OSU to win by about 17 points while numberFire has the Buckeyes by 8.

However, injuries on Ohio State's offensive line have me hesitant about taking the Buckeyes to cover. The Vols boast PFF's 10th-best pass-rush grade. If OSU's pass protection continues to struggle (100th in pass blocking grade), the Buckeyes' wide receivers -- perhaps their biggest advantage -- could be erased.

The under has a lot of promise. These are the top two defenses in EPA allowed per play. We mentioned Tennessee's ability to rush the passer, and it checks in first in EPA allowed per rushing attempt. Ohio State's run game has decent efficiency, ranked eighth in EPA per carry compared to third in EPA per drop back.

The Buckeyes still have college football's best defense, as well. Opponents record only 10.9 points per game (the fewest) and 3.9 yards per play (second-fewest) when facing OSU. Tennessee is 2-2 on the road and puts up 29.3 PPG in away games, which dips to 18.7 PPG if you remove a 36-point outing against the Vanderbilt Commodores.

When facing top-50 defenses in EPA allowed per play on the road, the Volunteers are averaging a measly 6.3 yards per passing attempt (7.9 for the season). Ohio State fits this as the nation's top defense in EPA allowed per play. Plus, the Buckeyes give up only 2.9 yards per rushing attempt (fifth-fewest), and UT is in the top 8% of rush-play rate.

If Dylan Sampson is even partially contained, the Vols are likely in deep trouble with Nico Iamaleava posting passing grades of under 63.0 in three of four true road games this season. Sampson totaled only 3.8 yards per rushing attempt (5.8 on the season) against the Oklahoma Sooners' fourth-best rush defense by EPA allowed, and OSU is third in this department.

Each offense struggling to put points on the board against an elite defenses would not be a surprise. Expect a lower-scoring game in the cold of Columbus on Saturday night.

Check out our latest 2024-25 College Football Playoff printable bracket.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.