College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 10/21/23

With daily fantasy football being so popular, it was only a matter of time before it translated to the college level.

FanDuel now offers college football daily fantasy contests in most states, and there's a twist on the NFL ruleset. You select a quarterback, two running backs, three wideouts (which includes tight ends), and a "SuperFLEX" that can be any of those positions.

Finding target data for pass-catchers in college can be difficult, so figuring out which players are on the field and getting work can make all the difference. Naturally, there are also more lopsided outcomes in college, so balance game scripts appropriately! Your running back's monstrous first half could lead to a bagel in the second.

How should we approach this week's main slate?

Note: All stats are from PFF.com. All tables are sortable by any category.

The Slate

We finally have a challenging process week in college football DFS. The largest totals on the slate come with huge spreads, and the lower spreads are forecasted to be more competitive. Finding out which games are closer or higher-scoring than projected will be paramount in Week 8.

Only one game features a total north of 60 points and a spread lower than 10 points; it's the SEC clash between the South Carolina Gamecocks and Missouri Tigers. We've used their key pieces in plenty of games in recent weeks, so I think it's our obvious top choice.

Of the remaining contests, we could do far worse than the latest edition of the Utah Utes and USC Trojans at the L.A. Coliseum; the schools combined for at least 59 points in both meetings last year. As of now, USC is a 7.0-point favorite with a modest total (53.5) as we await key injury news.

If there's a large spread I'd want to target, it's backing a bounce-back from the Washington State Cougars' offense in Eugene, and their fleeting defense -- which surrendered 44 points to the Arizona Wildcats last week -- should help the Oregon Ducks on the other side.

Beyond the strong defenses in the projected blowouts, the marquee game of the week might be a tough one for DFS. The Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes have great defenses themselves, market share concerns at several positions, and a low game total (45.5). That might be a better one to bet than stack up on FanDuel.

Quarterbacks

Top Plays

• Caleb Williams ($11,500)
  • Seemingly now out of the Heisman race after last week's clunker, I'm expecting the return of the chosen one this week. Williams' 31.2-FanDuel-point average is still tops on the slate despite being in the single digits last week. Utah's defense is a mediocre 62nd of 133 FBS schools in passing YPA allowed (7.3).
• Jaxson Dart ($10,700)
  • The only downside for Dart is I'll also be targeting his running back quite often. Dart's 10.1 YPA average is significantly improved from last year (8.2), and the Auburn Tigers are 87th against the pass (in YPA allowed). He's still added a nice floor with 60.8 yards per game on the ground.
• Cameron Ward ($9,100)
  • As a team, Wazzu just wasn't able to muster any sort of offensive rhythm, but Ward still completed 73.3% of his passes last week. It makes me wonder -- remember the guy who totaled five touchdowns (one rushing) on the strong Oregon State Beavers defense? In a projected negative script, Ward's volume could outweigh a dip in efficiency against UO.
• KJ Jefferson ($8,700)
  • The Mississippi State Bulldogs got dismantled by Jayden Daniels for 361 passing yards, 64 rushing yards, and 4 total scores. Why not turn to another dual-threat QB at this budget salary? Jefferson's passing averages are bogged down considerably by sub-150-yard days against the vaunted Alabama Crimson Tide and Texas A&M Aggies defenses.

Others to Consider

• Bo Nix ($11,200)
  • I'm not sure if it's by design for pro scouts, but Nix just isn't using his legs anymore, totaling just 14 rushing yards in last week's loss. That caps his DFS upside tremendously, but the Washington State defense just got dismantled by the Arizona Wildcats. A five-score game is still in his range of outcomes against them.
• Will Howard ($9,800) and Avery Johnson ($9,800)
  • This is a warning to avoid these two. Howard seems like a bargain at this mark in a solid environment, but he's dealt with injuries all year to the point where the Kansas State Wildcats will mix up both Howard and Johnson in a rotation. That's a mess at this salary.
• Spencer Rattler ($9,500)
  • The former Oklahoma Sooners QB's late-career resurgence continued last week with 313 passing yards and 4 touchdowns. In the game of the week, he's adding 43.0 yards per game with his rushing, so I'd prefer him to Brady Cook ($10,500) even before factoring in salary.
• Mike Wright ($7,700)
  • Once the Vanderbilt Commodores' signal-caller, Wright has now dispatched Will Rogers in a spread-option offense in favor of the late Mike Leach's air raid system at Miss State. This salary is appealing when Wright could continue to contribute immensely through the run game (68.0 yards per contest).

Running Backs

Top Plays

• Jonathan Brooks ($10,500)
  • While the Texas Longhorns-Houston Cougars game may not be wildly competitive, Brooks might be the reason why. Houston is 83rd in rushing YPA allowed (4.4), so he could carve them up for several scores as a 20.5-point favorite.
• Ollie Gordon II ($9,000)
  • He's still viable at this elevated salary. The Oklahoma State Cowboys have decided to funnel their offense through OG2 with a 66.8% rush share and 10.2% target share in the past three weeks, and it's propelled them to back-to-back outings over 35 points.
• Quinshon Judkins ($8,700)
  • Judkins doesn't have a monopoly on this backfield with Ulysses Bentley IV ($6,800) handling 11.0 carries per game in the past three weeks, but Judkins still has 25.5 in that same period. The script for him couldn't get much better as a 6.5-point road favorite, either.
• Mario Anderson ($7,600)
  • Due to injuries or improved play, we get surprise workhorse RBs in college football every season. In the best game of the day, Anderson is one of them. He's emerged with 66 carries (68.3% of the Gamecocks' total) in the past three weeks.

Others to Consider

• Bucky Irving ($9,900)
  • Oregon's backfield isn't perfect, but Irving has gotten 53.2% of their carries in the past three weeks while adding 5.5 targets per game. He'll be involved whether this game with Wazzu is competitive or not.
• Cody Schrader ($8,300)
  • Efficiency remains my knock on Schrader, and we saw that last week with just 3.6 YPC. A touchdown bailed him out there, but he'll be a major threat for those with 59.0% of the rushing work in the past three weeks for one of the SEC's better offenses.
• Will Shipley ($7,700)
  • I don't mind the Clemson Tigers-Miami (FL) Hurricanes battle at all, and Shipley is Clemson's primary scoring threat with 20.5 opportunities per game in the past three weeks. He's scored in three straight, continuing to separate from all challengers behind Cade Klubnik ($8,400).
• Nathan Carter ($5,900)
  • For the daring, Carter will be a $9,000 back (or so) in normal matchups. The suffocating Michigan Wolverines aren't one, but he's gotten 20.0 carries per game in the past three weeks and is the leader for goal-line work if the Michigan State Spartans happen to get there.

Wide Receivers

Top Plays

• Luther Burden III ($10,000) and Theo Wease Jr. ($7,800)
  • This was Burden's show, but both have emerged with at least a 25.0% target share in Missouri's concentrated offense. Wease is easy to love at salary, but Burden (37.5% yardage share in the past three weeks) is the one that can nuke the slate.
  • In the best game of the slate, I'll happily pair either with Rattler, Anderson, or big-play threat Xavier Legette ($9,200) from USC.
• Marvin Harrison Jr. ($9,400)
  • I was a Harrison skeptic in the fantasy world entering the season, but even in a tough matchup, he's gotten 39 total targets (44.1% share) over the past three weeks as the Buckeyes' undisputed top option. His floor is impossibly high.
• Xavier Restrepo ($8,500)
  • Restrepo leads the slate in targets per game over the last three weeks (15.5) in Miami's high-octane passing offense. Restrepo is the volume option to JaColby George ($7,400) as the home-run hitter. Again, this game is perfect for mini-stacks, and he's an obvious one with Shipley.
• KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($6,900)
  • Even while not loving the overall game, Harrison Jr. and KLS are perfect one-off options. He's already received 32.5% of Penn State's looks in the last three weeks, and you'd have to think the Nittany Lions lean on their top target in a hostile environment.

Others to Consider

• Troy Franklin ($10,400)
  • If there weren't better workloads at the top of the player pool, Franklin is becoming a must-play option every week. He's got 8 touchdowns in 6 six games while averaging 17.2 yards per reception; he's housed a long one on every main slate this year.
• Lideatrick Griffin ($8,100)
  • Griffin was a must-start at this salary with Rogers at the helm for Hail State, but Wright's rush-heavy nature absolutely will limit his upside. Still, he's amassed 35.6% of the Bulldogs' passing yards as their clear top target, and this is their first "normal" matchup since Arizona in Week 2 -- when Griffin scored twice.
• Andrew Armstrong ($7,700)
  • Freshman tight end Ty Washington ($5,600) randomly popped for 90 yards and 2 scores two weeks ago, but Armstrong led the team in receiving last week as Washington faded to one total target. He's still produced 32.9% of the Razorbacks' passing yards this season as Jefferson's top target.
• Kobe Hudson ($6,200) and Javon Baker ($5,800)
  • While I'm not particularly lining up to get pieces of Oklahoma's projected blowout, many will -- especially with Dillon Gabriel ($12,100). If this one stays remotely close, Hudson and Baker should thrive.
    • Hudson has 30.5% of the Central Florida Knights' passing yards as a downfield target.
    • The senior, Baker, is more of a security blanket at 6.3 targets per game (24.1% share).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.