3 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Nuggets at Knicks

Even within a single NBA game, betting markets are abundant.

You can bet traditional markets like the spread or the total, but we've also got tons of player-prop markets to sift through.

Which bets stand out for the first of ESPN's doubleheader between the Denver Nuggets and New York Knicks?

Let's dig into the best bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA betting odds, utilizing FanDuel Research's NBA projections to try to find value.

Nuggets at Knicks Betting Picks

Under 242.5 Points (-110)

With two of the NBA's top four offensive ratings meeting, this total is sky high at 242.5 points. Over Denver's last 10 games, two totals were at least 240.0 while the same can be said for one of New York's past 10. Even for the most productive offenses, we don't see totals this high very often. In fact, the second-highest total of Wednesday is all the way back at 233.5 points.

Projection models have this total finishing way under 242.5 points. For example, DRatings has the two combining for 235.1 points while MasseyRatings is at 234.5 points. This total simply feels too high, and we have the evidence to back up the under.

The Nuggets have the fifth-quickest pace, but the Knicks bring an opposite style with the seventh-slowest pace. Along with attempting the 13th-fewest shots per game, New York also gives up the 8th-fewest field goal attempts per contest. There will likely be a clear effort from the Knicks to slow this game down, and giving up the seventh-fewest fast break points per game helps -- especially when Denver has the highest per-game average for fast break points.

Free throw attempts should also carry a lot of weight in this one, for the Nuggets attempt the second-most free throws per game. New York does an excellent job of avoiding fouls by recording only 17.1 personal fouls per game (fifth-fewest), leading to the fifth-fewest free throw shots allowed per contest.

Even with the league's 12th-worst defensive rating, Denver can be stingy around the rim by giving up the 9th-lowest shot distribution around the rim (per Dunks & Threes). Meanwhile, the Knicks are used to stacking points in the paint, putting up the fourth-most per game paired with the seventh-highest shot distribution around the rim.

Between New York likely looking to slow the game down and each defense carrying favorable matchups, the under is shaping up to be the best game line.

Russell Westbrook to Score 15+ Points (+115)

Our under pick has a lot to do with the Knicks' slow pace of play, but this doesn't mean the Nuggets won't find scoring success. Denver logs the most points in the paint per game and has the highest shot distribution around the rim.

New York's paint protection has gone down hill a bit this season, and having no Mitchell Robinson (ankle) certainly hurts. The Knicks are giving up the 12th-most points in the paint per game and the 9th-highest shot distribution around the rim. Attacking the painted area should still be wide open for the Nuggets.

Most would turn to Nikola Jokic in this case, but Karl-Anthony Towns has a team-best 112.0 defensive rating in New York's starting lineup. Jokic's point prop is 28.5, and our NBA DFS projections have the Joker reaching only 26.1 points.

What about Russell Westbrook? He's consistently seen his minutes and production climb since the beginning of the season. He's off to an excellent start in January, racking up 15.3 PPG, 6.0 rebounds per game (RPG), and 6.3 assists per game (APG). At 11.2 field goal attempts per game, Westbrook is currently enjoying the highest usage rate for a month period this season.

His point prop is only 13.5 points for tonight, and he's +115 to reach at least 15 points. Considering Westbrook is right around 15.0 PPG this month, this feels like great value. Our projections confirms this, predicting 15.3 points for the former MVP. He can take advantage of the Knicks inability to defend the rim, shooting 54.3% of his shots within 10 feet of the rim (61.8 FG% on those attempts).

If correct, the 15.3-point projection had a 56.5% implied probability for at least 15 points (or -130 odds). The current +115 line for this prop carries only a 46.5% implied probability.

Jalen Brunson to Make 3+ Threes (+150)

Jalen Brunson has the most projected made threes in our projections for this matchup at 2.8. He's been red-hot from three-point land over his previous nine outings, cashing in 47.2% of his looks. That's paired with a per-game average of 2.8 made threes during the span -- right in line with our projections.

If the projection rings true, this is a 53.1% implied probability for at least three made three-pointers (or -113 odds). Similar to our Westbrook prop, this is terrific value with the current +150 line for 3+ made threes holding only a 40.0% implied probability.

Brunson has made at least three shots from beyond the arc in five of his past six -- good for an average of 3.0 made threes per game during the stretch.

The cherry on top? Denver allows the fifth-most three-point attempts per game and the seventh-most three-point shots per contest. New York isn't a three-ball happy team with the ninth-lowest shot distribution, but Brunson is second on the squad with 5.9 shots per game.

Whether its Westbrook (117.3 defensive rating) or Jamal Murray (117.7 defensive rating) as his primary defender, Brunson will have a favorable matchup tonight. Expect Brunson's hot streak from three to keep rolling along.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.