College Football Betting Picks for Thursday 12/28/23

If you've not hopped on December's bowl-season train already, fret not! The college postseason action is really only just beginning.

With games firing off all throughout the week, this Thursday offers four more CFB contests to keep bowl season churning strong. Of that bunch, I am most thrilled for a clash between the Arizona Wildcats and Oklahoma Sooners in the Valero Alamo Bowl.

There is quite a bit to unpack here, and I know you value your time. Prior to Thursday, let's dive into the odds and lines for the upcoming bowl slate, emphasizing the most valuable of the traditional betting markets where applicable. Also, be sure to check out our piece for Friday's bowl action, as well.

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Betting Picks for 12/28/23

Thursday's Full Slate

Pop-Tarts Bowl

NC State vs. Kansas State

• Venue: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
• Time: 5:45 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN/ESPN+
• Spread: KSU -2.5
• Moneyline: NCST +112/KSU -134
• Total: 47.5

As one of the many postseason games hosted at Camping World Stadium this year, the North Carolina State Wolfpack (9-3) and Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) will head to Central Florida to compete in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. As tasty as that sounds, the on-field action should play out rather physically in this one.

NC State did well to rally after starting this campaign at 4-3. Since then, they have won their past five games. Under head coach Dave Doeren, the Wolfpack is going bowling for the eighth time (3-4 bowl record). With a stout defense, can NC State shut down the Wildcats?

K-State was building momentum toward the end of the regular season before running into the Iowa State Cyclones in their most recent bid. Regardless, the Wildcats were a top-10 offense in 2023, scoring to the tune of 37.8 points per game (PPG). Kansas State has a 1-2 bowl record with Chris Klieman as head coach (dating back to 2019). The Wildcats will make for a clash of styles when pitted against the Wolfpack.

Best Bet: Kansas State -2.5 (-110)

According to numberFire, K-State (22.97 nERD) is viewed much more favorably compared to NC State (7.91 nERD). However, the Wolfpack have the benefit of recency bias behind them right now, being winners of their last five. Laying less than a field goal, I love the Wildcats against the spread (ATS) this Thursday.

When looking at the quarterback matchup, I have more confidence in Kansas State's Will Howard. The senior has displayed a 24:10 TD-INT ratio this year, while Brennan Armstrong of NC State has already been benched once in 2023.

The K-State moneyline is also attractive here with a price of -134, but on a spread of -2.5, I believe it is worth the risk to lay the points with the Wildcats.

Alamo Bowl

Arizona vs. Oklahoma

• Venue: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
• Time: 9:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN/ESPN+
• Spread: ARIZ -2.5 (-122)
• Moneyline: ARIZ -152/OU +126
• Total: 58.5

Played annually since 1993, the Valero Alamo Bowl has become a December staple of the Lone Star State. In 2023, we have the benefit of receiving a highly competitive matchup in San Antonio between Arizona (9-3) and Oklahoma (10-2). After winning just six total games over the past three years, the Wildcats have been one of this season's most pleasant surprises. OU had a fabulous campaign of their own, but quarterback Dillon Gabriel recently announced his decision to transfer from Norman to the Oregon Ducks.

For Oklahoma, either Arnold Jackson or General Booty will take the snaps on Thursday, but Jackson seems to be the more likely starter. Still, the Sooners have plenty of talent on offense, such as Drake Stoops (son of Bob Stoops) and Nic Anderson. We'll see what gear OU finds with a change at the game's most important position.

The 'Cats from Tucson took the Pac-12 by storm in 2023. Notably, signal-caller Noah Fifita had a breakout campaign, earning conference Freshman Offensive Player of the Year honors. Fifita was masterful behind a 73.6% completion clip, tossing 23 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. Tetairoa McMillan and Jacob Cowing are his go-to targets, as both receivers hauled in 10 or more scores this season.

Best Bet: Oklahoma +2.5 (+100)

With Gabriel's exit to the Pacific Northwest, I think Oklahoma is still in solid position to either win this game outright or cover the 2.5 points they are getting.

For starters, numberFire's CFB game projections are in favor of the underdog Sooners in this bid, showing an estimated score of 34.80-32.69. ESPN Analytics' Matchup Predictor concurs with this sentiment, giving OU a 75.5% chance of victory on Thursday.

Oklahoma will boast one of the better defenses that 'Zona has faced all season, as the Sooners have given up just 22.2 PPG. They are led by willbacker Danny Stutsman (16 TFL this year), who has been one of OU's top defenders of the current era. Against Arizona, he is the sort of player to wreck the game plan.

Ultimately, it is tough to gauge where the Sooners will be when they join the SEC next season. However, in their current form, I believe they still have enough in house to get by the Wildcats in San Antonio.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.