College Football Best Bets: Friday Night, Week 2

The college football landscape has been reset for the 2024 season. The College Football Playoff (CFP) will have 12 teams for the first time, which features the five conference champions paired with the next seven highest-ranked teams. Conferences underwent major changes, as well. The Pac-12 is virtually no more while the SEC added two major brands and the Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC all acquired several squads.

As if a shakeup in conference play wasn't intriguing enough, the stakes will also be heightened on a week-to-week basis with far more teams in contention for the CFP. Higher stakes could also generate more competitive games throughout the season, potentially impacting how we bet the sport.

Following a six-game Friday night slate last week, we get only three contests on Friday for Week 2. This includes two Big Ten teams, two ACC squads, and one from the Big 12 in action. The top clashes of the night are two non-conference contests between Power Four schools.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for Friday night?

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Betting Picks

BYU Cougars at SMU Mustangs

SMU Over 34.5 Points (-104)

Coming into the 2024 season, the SMU Mustangs were expected to have an explosive offense, sitting 22nd in ESPN's preseason offensive SP+ rankings. The unit came up short in Week 0 with 29 points against the Nevada Wolf Pack, who was 120th in preseason defensive SP+. The Mustangs played up to snuff in Week 1, logging 59 points and 595 yards against FCS school Houston Christian.

Going into Friday night's matchup, we know SMU can score, but what about the Brigham Young Cougars? The Big 12 squad seems in store for a weak season as they ranked 69th in preseason SP+. Yet, the Cougars cruised in their season-opening game, taking out the Southern Illinois Salukis 41-13 as three-score favorites.

The offense's performance was probably the biggest surprise as the unit was 86th in preseason offensive SP+. The Mustangs' defense has impressed in the early going, ranking 30th in run defense grade and 37th in coverage grade, per Pro Football Focus (PFF).

Gauging BYU's offense for this matchup is a little tricky. Everything we have is a small sample size.

Quarterback Jake Retzlaff logged 348 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and a 86.2 passing grade in Week 1. While SMU is giving up only 150.0 passing yards per contest through two games, look at who its played. Nevada ranked 105th in preseason offensive SP+, and the Stangs faced an FCS opponent a week ago. Let's not overlook the elephant in the room, though; BYU also benefitted from an FCS opponent in Week 1.

Last season's stats makes the picture clearer. Southern Methodist was tied for the 7th-fewest passing yards allowed per attempt while finishing 15th coverage grade. Meanwhile, the Cougs had the eighth-fewest passing yards per attempt in the nation.

Banking on BYU's offense to sputter feels like the wise pick due to last season's numbers. With that said, instead of taking the over for the combined total, back SMU to go over 34.5 points. The Cougars ranked 116th in coverage grade last season, and the Mustangs' QB Preston Stone just posted a 87.3 passing grade in Week 1 -- similar to his exceptional 91.0 passing grade from 2023.

Duke Blue Devils at Northwestern Wildcats

Duke Moneyline (+118)

The nightcap between the Duke Blue Devils and Northwestern Wildcats figures to be the best game on Friday. Duke is in a new era under coach Manny Diaz while David Braun was named Northwestern's official head coach during the 2023 season.

Each team is expected to finish towards the bottom of their conference. If there's one thing either squad can do well, it's play defense. Outside of a surprising 45-43 shootout against the Illinois Fighting Illini last season, the Wildcats have held opponents to 9.6 points per game (PPG) over their last five games. If we include the Illinois game over the last six, this spikes to 15.2 -- still pretty good.

Diaz comes in as a defensive savant for the Blue Devils, similar to their previous coach Mike Elko -- who is now with the Texas A&M Aggies. Duke was in the 86th percentile of PPG allowed a season ago and gave up only 3 points and 140 yards in their season-opening win.

We should expect a low-scoring game -- hence the 36.5 total. While Northwestern is riding a five-game winning streak dating back to last season, I like the road team to pull off the upset on Friday.

The Wildcats finished in the bottom 36% in passing yards allowed per attempt in 2023. The Blue Devils landed the sixth-best transfer QB, per 247 Sports, and Maalik Murphy did not disappoint in his debut with 290 passing yards, 7.3 yards per attempt, and a 74.8 passing grade.

A low-scoring game is imminent with each offense 74th or worse in preseason offensive SP+, but Duke could have the upper hand with Murphy under center. Models are in favor of the Devils, as well. Massey Ratings has Duke losing by only one point, suggesting a cover, and numberFire is giving the Blue Devils a 55.08% implied probability to win outright compared to the +118 odds' 45.90% implied probability.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.