College Football Best Bets and Player Props: Friday Night, Week 7
Each week in college football, there a tons of games available to us.
While this can be a bit overwhelming, it also gives us plentiful spots we can target when searching for betting value. From the biggest games of the week all the way on down, we're never lacking for options.
Friday night features two Power Four matchups -- one in the Big Ten and one in the Big 12. Also, one of the Mountain West's best, the UNLV Rebels, is looking to rebound on the slate following a non-conference loss from last week.
Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for this week?
All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
College Football Best Bets for Week 7
Northwestern Wildcats at Maryland Terrapins
Maryland Over 28.5 Points (-110)
One bet that was on my radar for Week 6 was the Indiana Hoosiers to go over their team point total against the Northwestern Wildcats. The pick smashed with Indiana scoring 41 points, which surpassed their prop by more than 10 points. Backing another offense to have success against Northwestern is on my list for Friday night.
The Maryland Terrapins are averaging 32.3 points per game (top 27%) and 440.0 yards per contest (top 25%) over five games. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are in the bottom 43% with 382.3 yards allowed per game while giving up 5.5 yards per play (bottom 53%).
Northwestern fares well in defending the run, giving up 3.3 yards per rush (top 16%) and 106.5 yards per game (top 19%) while sitting in the top 32% in Pro Football Focus' run-defense grade. However, the Terrapins are in the bottom 26% in rush-play percentage. Maryland leans heavily on the pass with a 53.1% pass-play rate (top 27%). This is exactly the area where the Cats' defense has struggled.
In Week 6, Indiana racked up 380 passing yards on 11.5 yards per passing attempt. Northwestern is now surrendering 7.9 yards per passing attempt (bottom 37%) and 275.8 passing yards per game (bottom 18%). The Wildcats also rank 96th in PFF coverage grade.
Simply due to the volume from Maryland's passing attack (top 13% with 38.8 attempts per game), the over for the Terrapins is enticing. Plus, we can factor in this is a pretty efficient attack, one that averaged 7.7 yards per passing attempt (top 34%) while ranking 21st in expected points added (EPA) per dropback.
Maryland ranking in the top 38% for the quickest tempos in college football (seconds per play) only fuels the idea for points. The Terrapins' pass-heavy attack should feast.
Billy Edwards 275+ Passing Yards (+142)
After Taulia Tagovailoa exhausted his eligibility, Maryland's passing attack hasn't missed a beat with Billy Edwards under center. In fact, it's been even better without Tagovailoa's turnover woes. For reference, Taulia posted 25 passing touchdowns to 11 interceptions (2.3 ratio) last season compared to Edwards' current marks of 11 touchdowns and 2 picks (5.5 ratio).
With Maryland posting nearly 300 passing yards per game, Edwards has enjoyed several outings with gaudy stats. He's logging 308.5 passing yards per game over his last two and 288.8 passing yards per contest for the season.
Northwestern currently ranks 90th in EPA allowed per dropback. There is little reason to believe that the Terrapins' passing attempts will dip in Friday's contest. Edwards is logging 38.7 passing attempts per game over his last three, giving him more than enough volume to post a big yardage day.
This includes going for 275-plus passing yards at +142. The 275-yard line is more than 10 yards less than his season average. Even 300-plus passing yards at +240 is worth a shout as Edwards has pulled off the feat in two of five contests.
Perhaps the biggest piece of the puzzle: Edwards has been legitimately good, holding a 84.9 PFF player grade and 80.3 PFF pass grade. The big numbers should keep coming against a stumbling secondary.
No. 16 Utah Utes at Arizona State Sun Devils
Arizona State +3.5 (-102)
The Utah Utes and Arizona State Sun Devils have been trending in unexpected directions ahead of Friday night's matchup. Following an injury to quarterback Cam Rising's throwing hand in Week 1, Utah has disappointed by going 1-3 against the spread (ATS) over its last four games. Meanwhile, Arizona State entered the season with a win total of 4.5, yet the Sun Devils are carrying a 4-1 record while going 4-1 ATS.
First thing's first, we should look at Rising's injury status. In what feels like his 100th season, the veteran QB is battling yet another injury. We are now one month removed from the injury, and he has still not taken the field. As usual, coach Kyle Whittingham has been pretty ambiguous about the injury, "Since there is no mandate, why would you tip your hand in any way, shape or form with injuries." Like many collegiate coaches do, Whittingham is leaving the public in the dark concerning Rising's injury. We have little reason to believe Rising will suit up on Friday.
numberFire's college football projections and MasseyRatings have the Utes favored to win by seven points, but College Football Nerds' model is bringing an interesting result with the Sun Devils favored by about one point. I don't have enough courage to take ASU straight up (+158), but instead of taking the Devils to cover the +4.5 line, what about an alternate spread?
This has been moving in Arizona State's favor as it was +5.5 on Thursday morning. It's dropped to +4.5, and the +3.5 alternate spread holds -102 odds. If you like the Sun Devils to cover +4.5, opting to +3.5 isn't a stretch by any means.
With that said, we have more evidence for this side outside of just Rising's injury.
Arizona State's offense against Utah's defense is a good-on-good matchup. The Devils are logging 33.2 PPG (top 22%) and 423.6 yards per contest (top 32%). Meanwhile, the Utes have been as stingy as Scrooge, giving up only 18.8 PPG (top 16%) and 312.8 yards per contest (top 16%).
While we should expect the Devils' numbers to drop some, they should still be capable of putting up points as they rank 34th in team EPA per play. The rushing offense has been excellent, sitting at 15th in EPA per play while ranking in the top 16% of rush-play rate paired with 4.9 yards per carry (top 28%) and 218.2 yards per contest (top 10%). Running back Cam Skattebo -- who carries a 80.5-yard rushing prop for this game -- has posted some silly numbers with 615 rushing yards on 5.5 yards per carry while ranking 21st with a 85.7 PFF run grade.
Utah ranks 54th in EPA per play in run defense -- not exactly elite. The Utes are also 63rd overall in team EPA per play, compared to Arizona State ranked 27th in the category. This implies the Sun Devils could be the better team right now.
The ASU cover looks even better with Utah's offense checking in 83rd in EPA per play. Backup quarterback Isaac Wilson -- the younger brother of Zach Wilson -- has struggled with a 52.4 PFF player grade and 50.9 PFF pass grade. The Devils' defense ranks 27th in EPA per play allowed while giving up only 4.6 yards per play (top 16%). The Utes are also among the top 50 in rush-play percentage, and Arizona State is allowing only 3.0 yards per carry (top 8%).
With the Devils' ability to control the ground game in a matchup with a 45.5-point total, ASU to cover +3.5 is a bet I like.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.