College Basketball Betting Picks for Thursday 2/15/24

The college basketball season always provides a flurry of twists and turns that few saw coming -- especially when the NCAA Tournament comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.

Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can aid our chances of taking the most favorable college basketball bets. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Metrics via numberFire unless otherwise stated.

College Basketball Best Bets

Memphis at North Texas

North Texas -1.5 (-102)

The North Texas Mean Green (13-10, 6-5 conference) are just 1.5-point favorites against the Memphis Tigers (18-6, 7-4) tonight. While the public is on Memphis, I like the Mean Grean to cover at home.

North Texas' chances of covering this spread start on the defensive end. The Mean Green have given up the fewest points per game (60.5) in conference play, and they're second in defensive rating. They play at the slowest pace in the AAC, and that's helped them contain several prolific offenses.

The Mean Green have played nine games against teams in the top 100 of KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency. They're just 2-7 in such matchups, but they've held those opponents to just 66.8 points per game. North Texas has given up more than 70 points in regulation just once in conference play.

Memphis ranks third in the AAC with 80.8 points per game. The Tigers play at the second-fastest pace in the conference, but they've struggled against slower opponents. They're just 2-2 against AAC teams that average 70 or fewer possessions per game, scoring 62, 73, 71, and 84 points in such matchups.

It's hard to imagine the Tigers finding sustained offensive success on the road against this good of a defense. But even if they do, they'll have an even harder time defending themselves. Memphis has allowed 75.3 points per game in conference play, and they've given up the third-highest effective field goal percentage in the AAC.

North Texas is by no means an elite offense, but they've held their own against soft defenses. There are nine teams (including Memphis) that give up more than 70 points per game in AAC play; the Mean Green are 4-1 against them.

numberFire's model has North Texas winning by 3.76 points. Bart Torvik is even higher on the Mean Green, pegging them to win by 6.5.

In a battle pitting Memphis' explosive offense and North Texas' suffocating defense, I'll trust the Mean Green to lock the Tigers up on their home floor and cover -1.5 in the process.

Minnesota at No. 2 Purdue

Purdue -16.5 (-120)

The No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers (22-2, 11-2) are 16.5-point favorites in a home matchup against the Minnesota Golden Gophers (15-8, 6-6).

I'm all over the Boilers.

Despite the lopsided spread, Purdue has grown accustomed to large margins of victory. In Big Ten action, the Boilermakers have an average margin of victory of 11.2 points. Five of their 11 conference wins have come by 17 or more points, and they've failed to cover this line just twice through six conference home games.

It makes sense. Purdue has been one of the best teams in the country all year long, and they boast a two-game lead in the Big Ten standings. In conference play, they sport the league's best offensive rating and rank fourth in defensive rating. Their 59% conference rebound rate is the highest mark the Big Ten's seen in 15 years.

That could spell trouble for a Minnesota side that's struggled away from home. They're just 2-4 in Big Ten road games, with three of those Ls coming by double-digits.

The Gophers just struggle to consistently put up points. They're 10th in the Big Ten in offensive rating and ninth in scoring. Though Minnesota sports the conference's highest two-point field goal percentage, their 32% mark from beyond the arc ranks third-to-last.

You just aren't going to hang with Purdue that way. The Boilermakers have the second-best two-point defense in the conference, and just 29.5% of opponents' shot attempts have come at the rim this season, per Bart Torvik. That's the sixth-lowest mark among high-major teams.

While Minnesota ranks fifth in defensive rating, Purdue has plenty of options to throw at them. Wooden Award favorite Zach Edey is a matchup nightmare, but the Boilermakers feature four players who average at least 11 points per game.

Minnesota just doesn't hold up against Purdue, and they'll be hard-pressed to keep this one close on the road. I'll take the Purdue -16.5 here, and it could be worth diving into the alternate lines, too. Alternate Spread 3, Purdue -19.5 (+126), has my eye.

Utah at USC

Utah +2.5 (-110)

The Utah Utes (15-9, 6-7) have dropped four of their last five games and find themselves as slight underdogs against the USC Trojans (9-15, 3-10). Still, the Utes have proven to be a tournament-level team, so I'll take them to cover against one of the worst teams in the Pac-12.

Despite Utah's struggles recent struggles, they've still shown flashes of the team that's a projected 10 seed in Bracket Matrix's consensus projections. The Utes took down Colorado just two games back before taking fifth-ranked Arizona to three overtimes last week.

For as rough as it's been for Utah of late, things have been even more grim for USC. The Trojans have dropped eight of their last nine games after a 2-2 start to conference play. Three of those losses have come at home, and four of them have come by double-digits.

In conference play, the Trojans are among the three worst teams in offensive rating, defensive rating, and rebound rate. They've especially struggled to defend the perimeter, allowing the most made threes per game and the highest three-point field goal percentage in the Pac-12.

Utah ranks seventh in the Pac-12 in offensive rating and defensive rating, plus they're sixth in total rebound rate. Those aren't eye-popping numbers, but they're among the best outside shooting teams in the conference. They average the second-most threes per game, and four different Utes have attempted more than three threes per game in conference play.

Even with the recent return of freshman phenom Isaiah Collier, USC hasn't looked like a team that we can trust. They lost by 31 points in their most recent outing, so it's not like they're returning home with momentum, either.

I like Utah to get back on track tonight and cover +2.5. There's also some value in Utah Moneyline (+118) considering both numberFire and Bart Torvik project the Utes to win outright.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.