Chargers at Texans Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for Wild Card Weekend

On Saturday at 4:30PM ET, the Los Angeles Chargers take on the Houston Texans in the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs. The postseason is a fun time to play single-game NFL DFS on FanDuel.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Chargers at Texans NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

For a playoff game, this is a matchup feels like it's lacking a ton of reliable MVP options, which is backed by it having the lowest total (42.5) of Wild Card Weekend. In particular, Houston's offense has really struggled down the stretch and comes in ranked just 21st in our schedule-adjusted metrics.

The Chargers' Justin Herbert ($14,500) is someone we can feel fairly good about, though, as he comes into this contest having scored 23.16, 24.44, and 31.04 FanDuel points across the last three games, and he can occasionally pop for solid rushing yardage. Since being unleashed following the Week 5 bye, Herbert has been an efficient passer, averaging 0.13 expected points added per dropback, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

However, Herbert's passing volume can still fluctuate in this offense, and he'll be facing a defense that's fifth in schedule-adjusted pass defense, second in pressure rate (per NFL Next Gen Stats), and tied for fourth in sacks. While that should give us pause, he's still being forecasted for the game's most points in our NFL DFS projections.

Joe Mixon ($14,000) ranks second in our projections, but he's scored double-digit FanDuel points once (Week 13) in the last five games (excluding Week 18 rest), showing some of the uncertainty we're dealing with at MVP. While we can excuse Week 17 due to a blowout, he's averaged 13.0 carries and 4.0 targets across the other two games since their Week 14 bye, so it's harder to bank on the robust workloads he was consistently seeing for much of the year. The Chargers have also given up the third-fewest FanDuel points per game to RBs.

If we're looking for positives, though, L.A. is just 14th against the run when adjusted for schedule, and it's possible Mixon's usage sees a bump back up in a win-or-go-home game. His rushing plus receiving yards prop is set at 94.5, and he's projected for a promising 98.3 scrimmage yards.

C.J. Stroud ($13,500) and Nico Collins ($15,000) are the other Texans to consider.

Stroud has demonstrated little upside for the vast majority of the season, scoring above 15 FanDuel points just twice over the last 10 full games. He's exceeded 20 points just once all year, and that came in Week 4. He's really hard to excited about versus the Chargers' fourth-ranked adjusted pass defense. However, he should see a lower MVP roster percentage for a QB if you're willing to roll the dice, and he actually has the same passing yards prop line (231.5) as Herbert.

Collins is easier to back if you think this Houston offense can bust out of its slump. Over his last five full games, he's logged a 26.8% target share and 32.6% air yards share, and he's also led the team in end zone target share (37.5%). Particularly with Tank Dell lost to injury in Week 16, Collins should easily lead the team in targets and is projected for a game-high 9.3 targets and 85.2 receiving yards.

J.K. Dobbins ($12,500) and Ladd McConkey ($13,000) round out our top MVP candidates.

Since returning in Week 17, Dobbins has averaged 79.0 scrimmage yards, 18.5 carries, and 2.0 targets over the last two games. His most recent snap rate (66.7%) falls in line with his typical usage this season when healthy. The Texans have given up the fourth-fewest FanDuel points per game to RBs, and Dobbins tends to cede some red zone work to his backups, but if the Chargers roll in this one, it's Dobbins who could be a primary beneficiary. While he's been limited in practice this week, there hasn't been an indication that he's in danger of sitting out.

Over his 15 games this season, McConkey has been the Chargers' most consistent wideout, posting a 24.4% target share, 27.9% air yards share, and 2.58 yards per route run. He tends to be more of a high-floor play, but he's projected for the matchup's second-most targets (8.2) and has demonstrated he can produce the occasional spike week.

Flex Targets

Quentin Johnston ($11,000) -- After catching 13-of-14 targets for 186 yards in Week 18, Johnston has our attention entering the postseason. Over the past four games alongside McConkey, Johnston actually leads the team in target share (27.7%), air yards share (31.7%), and red zone target share (33.3%), so you might even consider him as a fringe MVP. The trouble is he was downgraded to a DNP on Wednesday's practice report, so his status needs to be monitored ahead of Saturday.

Josh Palmer ($10,000) -- Palmer has opened the week with missed practices on Tuesday and Wednesday, making him iffy for Saturday. Palmer has a decent 14.9% target share when active, but he's reached double-digit FanDuel points only twice, making him realistically a touchdown-or-bust option if he plays.

Dalton Schultz ($9,500) -- Schultz projects for the second-most targets (5.7) on the Texans. Since Nico Collins returned to the lineup, Shultz has recorded a 17.2% target share and 25.0% red zone target share in the five games Collins played over half the snaps. Like most tight ends, he probably needs to find the end zone to pay off.

Cameron Dicker ($9,000) and Ka'imi Fairbairn ($9,000) -- In a matchup that could turn into a low-scoring grind, the kickers shouldn't be ignored as value plays. It also can't hurt that Dicker and Fairbairn were two of fantasy's top options in the regular season, as both averaged 10+ FanDuel points per game.

Los Angeles Chargers D/ST ($8,500) and Houston Texans D/ST ($8,500) -- Similar to the kickers, the defenses could play a bigger fantasy role than usual if touchdowns are at a premium. The Chargers project better as a road favorite against a struggling C.J. Stroud, who has the NFL's eighth-highest sack rate (8.9%). Houston's ability to get to the QB (fourth in sacks) shouldn't be overlooked despite Justin Herbert protecting the ball well with just three interceptions all season.

Will Dissly ($8,000) -- With the Chargers' wideout room all banged up, Dissly could have an improved role. He missed a couple of games down the stretch but was productive in Week 18, logging a 68.4% route rate and 17.1% target share on his way to 5 receptions, 42 yards, and a touchdown. Since the Week 5 bye, Dissly has a 25.8% red zone target share in nine games where he played over half the snaps. He's intriguing at this salary.

Diontae Johnson ($8,000) -- Johnson made his Texans debut in Week 18, playing 34.5% of the snaps while catching 2-of-4 targets for 12 yards. In a game played mostly by backups, it's hard to know whether this is building toward a viable role or not. But given Houston's limited wideout room and Johnson's salary, it isn't crazy to throw some darts here.

John Metchie III ($7,500) -- When we last saw Collins play a full game in Week 17, Metchie was the main beneficiary of Tank Dell being out, posting team-highs in both route rate (78.9%) and target share (25.8%). After missing practice on Tuesday, he returned to a limited session on Wednesday, so he's trending toward playing. It's easier to have confidence in Metchie as a value wideout on Houston compared to Diontae.

Gus Edwards ($7,000) -- With two straight limited practices to begin the week, Edwards should be active this weekend. He figures to effectively replace Hassan Haskins' touches while he was out rather than make a dent in Dobbins' workload. This could mean he flirts with double-digit carries in the right game script, but even in that best-case scenario, expectations need to be tempered, as the only time he's cracked double-digit FanDuel points required two touchdowns.

Xavier Hutchinson ($7,000) -- Hutchinson saw a 71.1% route rate in Week 17 alongside Collins, so he could be out there a lot on Saturday. Unfortunately, that may not mean much -- he hasn't reached even 5.0 FanDuel points in any game this year.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.