Champions League Betting Picks: PSG vs. Dortmund (5/7/24)

We saw two great matches in the Champions last week, and both still have a lot left to play for. It's still realistic for all four teams to make the final.

This week starts with PSG against Dortmund. Dortmund won last week 1-0 in an upset. How will they play in the return leg?

When looking at the Champions League odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense?

PSG vs. Dortmund UCL Betting Picks (5/7/24)

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals (+178)

A lot of the big names on these teams are attacking players. We typically think of both of them play in an attacking style with lots of goals.

That hasn't been the case in the three games they've played against each other this season. They've played three games this season with two goals or fewer being scored in all of them.

In last week's match, the expected goals (xG) were 1.7 apiece, according to FBRef.com. That was the fewest PSG had in their three matches against Dortmund this season. This speaks to Dortmund's improved defensive game.

Since March 30th, Dortmund have held PSG, Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen to under 2.0 xG. These are three of the best attacks in Europe, so to be able to do this and concede just one goal in these matches is impressive.

Dortmund may take a defensive approach to the match since they have the advantage to start. This could lead to a slow first half, and that would go a long way to helping us get there on this bet.

Teams tend to take a more conservative approach in these big matches. Considering we are getting such a good price on this game staying under like it has in the first three times these teams met, I really like taking this bet and rooting for these teams to not be able to score.

Player Prop

Kylian Mbappe to Have a Shot on Target in Each Half (+105)

With a place in the final on the line, we can expect Kylian Mbappe to try to take matters into his own hands -- or maybe his own feet.

Mbappe had four shots in the first leg with just one being on target. That obviously wouldn't cash for us, but PSG should be on the front foot needing a win in this match.

I want to find ways to have some exposure to Mbappe doing his best to first his team to a spot in the final. This is one of the few reasonable shot props that we can get at better than even money on him, so I'm definitely interested in this bet.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.