Champions League Betting Picks: Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid (5/8/24)

After last week's thrilling meeting, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid are all square heading into the second leg on Wednesday.

Their match last week ended 2-2, and with no away goals tiebreaker anymore, it's essentially 0-0. The advantage goes to Real Madrid as they were able to neutralize Bayern away from home.

When looking at the Champions League odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, how should we bet this exciting semi final second leg?

UCL Betting Picks: Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid (5/8/24)

Best Bet: Bayern Munich to Advance (+176)

These teams showed that they are pretty evenly matched last week, and I believe that Bayern has a better chance of making it through than this line suggests.

It was a close game for the first leg in Munich by basically every metric. The possession was 51-49 in favor of Bayern, and they also had 13 shots to Madrid's 9. The expected goals (xG) favored Madrid slightly, 1.9 to 1.6, according to FBRef.com.

In Europe's big five leagues, Bayern still have the best xG differential on a per-90-minute basis. The gap between them and second-placed Inter Milan is .37 xG per 90. If you took .37 from Inter's total, they would be down in 10th.

Real Madrid clinched La Liga over the weekend. They haven't lost a match in any competition since January 18th. They've had a few close calls in the Champions League, and the match against Bayern was the first in the five knockout games in which they won the xG battle.

Madrid are ninth in xG differential in Europe this season. With Bayern having a huge edge in this department, it's tough to believe that they won't be at least close in this game.

I like taking these long odds for Bayern to advance because we can win if they win in 90 minutes, after extra time, or in a penalty shootout.

Prop Bet

Harry Kane to Record 2 or More Shots on Target (+160)

We get a chance to bet on the striker who probably had the best season of any player at his position -- and get a good price to do so.

Harry Kane led Europe's big five leagues with 4.6 shots per game. In the first leg, he got off five shots, two of which were on target.

With everything on the line, Kane will certainly be playing the full 90 minutes barring something unforeseen. He will be the focal point of Bayern's attack and will be relied upon if the team needs a goal late in this match.

Real Madrid's defense is hard to breach, but this is simply too good of a price on Kane's shots on target to pass up.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.