MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 5/19/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees

New York Yankees Over 4.5 Runs (-148)
Aaron Judge to Record 2+ Bases (-125)

Ranking second among Sunday's offenses with an eye-popping 5.60 expected team total, the Bronx Bombers are set up for an offensive explosion versus right-hander Chris Flexen.

While Flexen has displayed some improvement with his fourth MLB team after accounting for a 4.57 xFIP through 40.1 innings, the 29-year old still profiles as a below-average arm when examining his overall metrics as a starter (5.02 xFIP, 16.1% K-rate) and glaring reverse splits (.369 wOBA, 5.13 xFIP).

When considering Flexen's main weakness and his upcoming matchup versus six right-handed New York bats including their two top power threats, there should be plenty of confidence in the Yankees reaching their expectation especially with Aaron Judge in prime form after accounting for an insane .469 expected average, 75% hard hit rate, and 14 extra base hits in his last 54 plate appearances.

Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-108)

In a battle between Aaron Civale and Alek Manoah, the Rays have a great spot to sustain their current four game winning streak on Sunday afternoon.

There are several reasons to explain why Tampa Bay is the superior team over their divisional rivals when comparing Aaron Civale's profile (career 4.04 xFIP, 7.4 WAR) to Manoah's (4.43 career xFIP, 5.5 WAR) and their superior offensive ranking in wOBA (19th versus 25th) and weighted runs created plus (11th versus 24th).

Armed with advantages in almost every aspect of their team, expect a surging Tampa Bay squad to provide excellent betting value especially with a mouth-watering 11.1% gap between their 63.0% win probability and 51.9% implied percentage.

Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals Moneyline (-166)

After taking the first two games of this series, the Royals are in great position to complete a sweep as the home favorite.

Taking the mound for Kansas City, Brady Singer presents a sizable advantage with his revamped form in his fifth MLB season after producing a career-best 3.32 xFIP and a 25.0% K-rate while on the opposing side JP Sears appears due for a blowup when examining his 4.72 xFIP, a career-low 17.0% K-rate, and 9.0% opposing barrel percentage.

With the better starting pitcher and an offense ranked higher in wOBA (17th versus 24th) and Wins Above Replacement (14th versus 24th), look for the Crowns to fulfill their 64.5% win probability and win their third game in a row.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.