Canadian Grand Prix Betting Picks: Will Red Bull Struggle Again?

When you run your own betting model, and it deviates heavily from the market, it's a blessing and a curse.

It's a blessing because it means you'll be able to find value in the market, which isn't always a given.

It's a curse because you'll spend every second until cars are on track fearing your model sucks and the value is a ruse.

That's where we find ourselves this week.

When I run my model, it's lower on Red Bull than the market. I know why this is the case, and I agree with it.

We've seen Red Bull appear more vulnerable for three straight races now, and they've wound up losing two of them. Their lone win was by less than a second.

Those were also three very different tracks, downplaying the thought that this may be a track-specific downturn.

Additionally, those issues may not dry up this weekend. Max Verstappen has already said he expects the RB20 to struggle this week given the curbing and bumpiness of Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, which gives it at least some similarities to Monaco and Miami.

Despite this, Verstappen is -220 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's F1 betting odds. That puts his implied odds at 68.8%, well above where my model has him.

So, please keep in mind that the market tends to be very efficient, and it's possible I'm just way off this week. But here's how my model views things prior to practice and qualifying.

The big benefactor of Red Bull's vulnerability -- for me -- is Lando Norris.

Norris is +650 to win at FanDuel, which is 13.3% implied. As you can see, he's 30.1% for me.

The true odds likely lie somewhere in between. It was Norris who topped Verstappen in Miami, and he finished within a second of him at Imola. He couldn't keep pace with Charles Leclerc in Monaco, but that's very much a unique track.

Thus, you could easily justify betting Norris at +650 to win. I think there's a better route, though.

Instead, in FanDuel Sportsbook's Motorsport Specials: Up to +1000 tab, you can find either Norris or Leclerc to win at +250. My sims have that at 41.5%, up from 28.6% implied. This gets us access to Norris while fading Verstappen but also safeguards us in case Leclerc pulls out another banger of a race.

Similarly, FanDuel is offering Norris or Carlos Sainz to win at +500. My model is above market on both of these drivers to win, so from a modeling perspective, this is the preferred value. If you have faith in Sainz, I also think this is an enticing market to target.

Regardless, I'd be looking for ways to bet against Red Bull this week. I think the market is reacting too slowly to their struggles, especially when you consider that some of those could crop up again this week. Whether it's Norris straight up to win or one of these special markets, I do think we've got enough to dabble in a Red Bull fade in Montreal.

Lower in the order, my model is also showing value on Pierre Gasly (+410) and Valtteri Bottas (+750) to score points.

Gasly's pace has been much better since Alpine started rolling out upgrades. He has made it out of the first round of qualifying in four straight races, and that's while having the upgrades for just two of those. He scored his first point of the year in Monaco, as well.

For Bottas, qualifying has still been rough, so I'd prefer to hold off on adding him to my card. But the race pace has been a bit better than it was in the early part of the season, so as long as he's not total dust in practice and qualifying, he may be a target at longer odds prior to lights out on Sunday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.