Breece Hall's Upside Makes Him Worth the Risk in Fantasy

If you are preparing for your fantasy football drafts, FanDuel Research has you covered.

The running back position can be a tricky one, and there are many different strategies for the position that you can deploy in your drafts.

Today, we'll look at Breece Hall, a mega-talented second-year player who was on his way to a big rookie season before getting injured. How do the changes on the New York Jets' offense affect Hall heading into this season, and what can you expect from him in 2023?

Breece Hall Fantasy Football Projection

Projections via numberFire.

2023 Projection: 1,336 rushing yards, 9.0 rushing TDs, 47 receptions, 348 receiving yards, 2.4 receiving TDs

numberFire Positional Projection: RB10

Breece Hall Fantasy Football Outlook

Promising Start

Breece Hall was the first running back taken in the 2022 NFL Draft but had to wait until the second round to hear his name called. There weren't too many question marks in his profile, but the running back position being devalued caused him to slip.

He quickly proved he could succeed at the NFL level. Hall was the half-PPR RB7 until Week 7 -- when he suffered a torn ACL that caused him to miss the rest of the season.

Hall was dynamic as both a runner and receiver prior to his injury. He caught 19 passes, which included some long games -- like a 79-yarder in Week 5. The lasting memory of his season is probably his 62-yard touchdown against the Denver Broncos just before he got hurt.

The Jets used some different run schemes to allow Hall to use his speed effectively. This was evident on that long touchdown against Denver and also his touchdown run against the Green Bay Packers. It remains to be seen if new offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett will run the same concepts, but if he does, Hall could thrive again.

We want to be careful of overreacting to a small sample, but Hall sure looked pretty darn good in 2022.

Changing Landscape in 2023

The first thing we have to be concerned about with Hall is how he will recover from a major knee injury. Jets coach Robert Saleh has expressed optimism about Hall being ready for Week 1, but these things can change as we get more information in training camp.

Obviously, there was a big shift with the Jets in the offseason, with Aaron Rodgers coming in to be the starting quarterback. That should mostly be a positive for Hall.

The Jets should have a functioning offensive environment for Hall to play in. This likely would not have been the case with Zach Wilson under center. The better the Jets' offense is, the more points they'll score -- and that's clearly a good thing for Hall.

Also, Rodgers has been more than willing to target running backs over the years. Aaron Jones has averaged at least 3.1 receptions per game in each of the last four seasons. Hall's all-around skill-set could be a perfect fit alongside Rodgers, and as long as Hall is healthy, he could be in line for a really good season.

Where Should We Draft Hall?

Hall's average draft position (ADP), according to half-PPR ADP at FantasyPros, slots him 30th overall. That ranks 12th among running backs. In FanDuel's best-ball drafts, he's going all the way down at 43.8 (RB14).

His ADP will likely shift one way or another once we get more concrete news on his injury recovery. If Hall appears set for Week 1, he's a great deal at his current ADP. If his return timetable is still up in the air as we get closer to Week 1, his ADP will likely slip some.

There has been a lot of talk about not drafting running backs in the "dead zone" over the last few seasons. That usually refers to a range around Round 3 through Round 6 of 12-team drafts -- once the top-tier backs are off the board. Hall is currently right in that dead zone.

Two warning signs for a back in the dead zone are guaranteed touches that aren't as guaranteed as we think and touches that aren't as valuable as we think. Hall doesn't really fall into either of these categories; he is very likely to get the majority of work for the Jets as soon as he's healthy enough, and he should be involved in the passing game, too -- all for an offense that should be pretty solid.

After the upside Hall showed last season, a case could be made for him going much higher, and that will likely come to fruition if we get positive injury news. As long as he's good to go early in the year, Hall looks like a back who is well worth the risk due to how high his ceiling can be in a Rodgers-led Jets attack.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.