Vinicius at +350 is the primary first-goal pick. The case is built on mechanism, not just market position: he scored from a near-identical left-to-right diagonal cut against Morocco, and Brazil's mandate to press aggressively from kick-off means Vinicius will be in high-volume attack mode from minute one. With Neymar out, the entire creative burden of Brazil's left side runs through him — more possession, more one-on-ones, and more first-half shot attempts than at any previous point in this tournament. The +350 vs his anytime of -115 represents a 4.5x premium for the same player scoring as the opener — worth paying given this specific game plan.

Raphinha at +425 first goal is FanDuel Research's top scorer prediction tonight, and the penalty route gives him a first-goal pathway Vinicius doesn't have as primary spot-kick taker. Shekicks.net confirms: "Raphinha has scored five goals across his last run of international appearances with three coming from the penalty spot, and as Brazil's set-piece specialist and first-choice right attacker, he will see significant involvement against a Haiti side that will struggle to keep him quiet for 90 minutes." Any Haiti foul in the box routes directly to a Raphinha first goal from 12 yards — very realistic given Brazil's relentless first-half pressure.

Cunha at +480 first goal is the CF value pick. He starts as Brazil's sole central striker — the primary finishing reference inside the box — yet he's priced at +480 first goal vs Vinicius's +350 and Raphinha's +425. If Brazil's opening goal comes from a cross or knockdown rather than a wide dribble, Cunha is the most likely finishing source as the central player in position for a tap-in or header at the back post.