Best NBA Future Bets Heading Into the Second Half: Finals and Conference Winner Picks

The NBA All-Star break is a gruesome experience for nightly basketball viewers, but the respite does offer us an opportunity to take stock of teams heading into the second half.

That's exactly what we will focus on today. Using FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA odds, lets check out some of the best NBA future bets.

Best NBA Futures Bets

The Importance of Playoff Experience

The Oklahoma City Thunder (44-10) are statistically the best team in basketball and look the part. That's earned them the shortest Western Conference Odds (-110) and the second-shortest NBA Finals Odds (+200) behind only the Boston Celtics (+175).

However, Oklahoma City's lack of playoff experience should give us pause.

Dating back to 1984, 35 of the last 40 championship teams made it to the conference finals (or further) at least once in the three seasons leading up to their victory. Here's at look at the five exceptions in this span: Houston Rockets (1993-94), San Antonio Spurs (1998-99), Boston Celtics (2007-08), Dallas Mavericks (2010-11), and the Golden State Warriors (2014-15).

That Spurs/David Robinson team advanced to the Western Conference Finals four seasons prior to their '99 championship while the Mavs and Dirk Nowitzki made it to the Finals in 2006. The '08 Celtics could also be ruled as an outlier within this group of exceptions as they experienced massive roster upheaval by bringing in Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen.

The Thunder have not sniffed a conference-title-round playoff game since 2016. So, the only modern-day equivalent to this OKC team are the Warriors in 2014-15. But even those Warriors had far more experience than the Thunder do right now. Golden State's top eight players were, on average, 27.1 years old while Oklahoma City's current top eight averages out at 24.3 years old.

That same aforementioned trend not only applies to winning the Finals but making it there, too. Nine of the last 12 Finals runner-up squads had played in a conference championship series in one of the three seasons before.

This does not mean the Thunder won't be able to make a deep run this season. OKC's league-best +12.8 net rating is begging for my sentiments to age poorly. Even still, it's notable that 87.5% (35 out of 40) of championship teams since 1984 had strong playoff experience before their title win and 75.0% (9 out of 12) of recent runner-ups did, too.

With OKC's Western Conference odds (-110) and NBA Finals odds (+200) as short as they currently are, I believe that opens the door to find value elsewhere in the West.

Here are a couple of teams I have in mind.

Best 2025 NBA Western Conference Winner Bets

Denver Nuggets (+500)

Remember the Denver Nuggets?

The most recent Western Conference team to bring home the hardware has regressed since 2023, losing key pieces such as Bruce Brown Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. I was especially concerned when they lost KCP, a three-and-D specialist they have yet to replace.

But in a conference known for its parity -- and recent roster changeups at the trade deadline -- the Nuggets have emerged as a top candidate to make it out of the West.

At the All-Star break, Denver checks in with a +5.8 net rating (sixth-best in the NBA) and a 57.5% effective field goal percentage (EFG%; second-best).

Effective field goal percentage is a strong indicator of what's to come. The last 11 championship-winning teams hoisted a top-three EFG% at the end of the regular season. Notably, 14 of the last 16 runner-ups ranked in the top 9 of EFG%, and 12 of those groups fared in the top 5. (As a note, I do not include the shortened 2020 NBA season in my Finals data.)

As of this writing, Denver is the only team in the West to rank in the top 4 of EFG%. Even the Thunder rank just 11th (tied; 55.0% EFG%).

It helps to have Nikola Jokic, a guy who leads the league in player impact estimate, offensive rating, and ranks second in EFG% among players who see at least a 20.0% usage rate. Jokic has also helped resurrect Russell Westbrook's career to the point where I actually believe Russ can help a team win a playoff game.

It doesn't hurt that Denver shoots threes at a 37.9% clip (third-best in the NBA) and have found viable bench options in Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson. If the Nuggets were to maintain their current status as a top-3 seed, they could theoretically avoid seeing the Thunder until the Western Conference Finals. That's a spot where Denver's playoff experience -- and OKC's lack of playoff experience -- could come into effect.

Dallas Mavericks (+3200)

Past the Nuggets, I'm boldly intrigued by what a healthy version of the Dallas Mavericks could look like.

When healthy, the Mavs' starting five would feature Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, PJ Washington, Anthony Davis, and Dereck Lively. That is a lethal group, and we haven't even touched on Dallas' bench, which offers Spencer Dinwiddie, Max Christie, Naji Marshall, and Daniel Gafford.

They have playoff experience on lock with Irving, Thompson, and AD. Dallas also has a bunch of guys who can get it done from downtown, including Irving, Thompson, Washington, and Christie. Add in the rotations that are possible with Davis, Lively, and Gafford, and Dallas appears to have one of the most well-rounded and best defensive groups in the NBA.

The problem? Dallas isn't healthy -- with Davis, Lively, and Gafford expected to be sidelined for at least one more month. They'll need to tread water and establish playoff positioning in the meantime.

And if you're wondering what team morale could look like in the post-Luka Doncic era, Kyrie Irving helped shed some light on that just last week. In his final game before the break, Irving scored 42 points on 15-for-25 shooting and drew a key game-sealing charge in the final seconds. It was the best we've seen Irving play in quite some time, and his commitment to effort was clear.

Yes, the injuries are concerning and it might be best to wait for further word on Davis' status before placing a future on the Mavs, but this is one of the best teams in the NBA when healthy and their odds do not properly reflect that.

Best 2025 NBA Finals Bets

Exact Result: Boston Celtics to Beat Denver Nuggets (+1400)

Try as the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks may, but the Boston Celtics are primed to come out of the East for the second straight year.

The Celtics check quite literally every box. Whether it's playoff and championship experience, strong shooters and rotations, or a top-tier defense -- Boston is home to all of it.

But betting on the Celtics straight up isn't all that appealing with their Eastern Conference odds sitting at -145 and their NBA Finals odds sitting at +170. Instead, we can seek value by betting on an exact Finals result.

As mentioned, the Nuggets are well-suited to win the West. Whether they can beat a team like Boston in a seven-game series is a different question. The Celtics would likely have home court advantage in this theoretical matchup. And while Denver could exploit some of the younger and more inexperienced teams in the West, that won't be the case against the reigning champs.

NBA Finalists: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks (+6500)

An NBA Finals rematch might be my favorite way to bet the futures market.

Even with all their injuries, I think it's preposterous that the Mavs have just the ninth-shortest odds (+3200) to win the West. Are we really going to act like the Los Angeles Clippers (+1600) have a better chance at playing in June?

On February 9th, it was reported that Anthony Davis' injury could keep him out for "up to a month." Now, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't scared of AD's injury history, but the worst of that timeline would have him back in action by mid-March, well before the playoffs begin. Dallas -- rightfully so -- has gotten bad PR since the Doncic trade. Was the return for a 25-year-old Luka bad? Of course. But lost in that is the fact that a healthy Dallas team is better than they were at the start of the season.

If we're to believe that the Mavs are undervalued in the futures market, betting on them to match up against the Celtics in the 2025 NBA Finals is a fun route. Given Dallas' injuries, it might feel like we are betting on the unknown -- because we are. However, I think the value we're getting here outweighs the risk. Personally, I might hold off on betting this for a week or two in order to get more word on Davis' injury, as I don't anticipate the odds moving much in the meantime. Keep an eye on Dallas.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.