Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Quaker State 400 in Atlanta

Even with most of the focus on NASCAR's inaugural In-Season Challenge, we've still got a regular race to run on Saturday night.

The Cup Series has a full 40-car field for the Quaker State 400 at EchoPark Speedway in Atlanta, which has turned into one of the more exciting venues on the circuit thanks to its reconfiguration.

That remodel has led to drafting and -- as a result -- more crashes and chaos. But even with that accounted for, I still think one of the favorites in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds is undervalued.

Let's run through my model's sims first, and then we can lay out a pair of bets I like prior to qualifying for Saturday's race.

NASCAR Predictions for Atlanta

NASCAR Betting Picks for Atlanta

Joey Logano to Win (+950)

(UPDATE: Logano has since lengthened to +1000 despite winning the pole. He's still very much a quality value by my numbers.)

Because Atlanta is less of a chaos agent than Daytona or Talladega, Joey Logano's win odds are above 11% in my model. That's high enough to make him a value here.

Logano is already a two-time Atlanta winner since the reconfiguration. He won here in 2023 and during the playoffs last year. In the spring, Logano led 83 laps and held a 7th-place average running position but ultimately finished 12th.

Logano and Team Penske want to run up front and control these races, and sometimes that leads to crashes. But it also leads to wins as they've combined to win 23.8% of all Next-Gen pack races with a bunch of other top finishes. That -- plus Atlanta's relatively calm nature -- is why I'm comfortable with the model showing value in Logano at +950.

Ryan Preece to Finish Top 5 (+800)

(UPDATE: Preece has since shortened to +600 to finish top 5, which is no longer a value for me.)

Ryan Preece -- briefly -- had a top-five in the most recent Cup race at a pack track, finishing second in Talladega. He was later disqualified, though, relegating him back to 38th.

It's still proof that Preece can get it done on pack tracks now that he's with the right team.

RFK Racing has had upside on pack tracks for a while now. Chris Buescher won at Daytona in 2023, and Brad Keselowski has been runner-up four times on pack tracks during the Next-Gen era.

That upside is key because Preece has no floor. Not counting the disqualification, he has finished 30th or worse in 6 of 14 Next-Gen pack races after being involved in some horrific crashes. He's not someone I want to bet in a matchup or a top-10 market because his median expectation is poor.

A top-five is different, though, and the payout at +800 justifies the risk. Preece proved he could do it in Talladega. We just need him to do it again and skirt through inspection this time.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Todd Gilliland to Finish Top 5 (+700)

Although he qualified a respectable 17th, Todd Gilliland's top-five odds lengthened once the grid was set. Qualifying doesn't move the needle for me at this track, so I'll buy the dip on Gilly.

Gilliland consistently runs up front on pack tracks. He has had a top-18 average running position in every drafting race since the start of last year. Only one of those resulted in a top-10 finish -- with none in the top five -- but he'll be in position if he can make it to the end.

Gilliland isn't a wreck fiend at these tracks, either. He has managed a bunch of solid-but-not-great finishes, including a 15th-place run earlier this year in Atlanta. I don't buy into his being unable to convert quality runs into good finishes even if we haven't seen it yet.

Due to the front-hunting nature of Gilliland, my model has him at 15.2% to finish top 5, up from 12.5% implied. Thus, the discount is big enough for me to bite.

Want to fill out a bracket for the NASCAR In-Season Challenge? Check out our free printable bracket for the NASCAR In-Season Challenge tournament here.

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Which drivers stand out to you for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.