Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Hollywood Casino 400 in Kansas

Around a decade ago, the NASCAR Cup Series schedule was littered with 1.5-mile tracks. You had multiple dates in Charlotte and Texas plus a stop in Chicagoland, all of which have been trimmed down.

This weekend's race in Kansas will be the first race on a 1.5-mile track since Memorial Day weekend in Charlotte. It's easy to forget which drivers were thriving back then, and I think that's creating value in the betting markets.

A lot of the drivers who stand out to me in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds are guys who have been at their best on tracks like this but have struggled on the flatter tracks that have dominated the summer stretch. I'm willing to overlook that form in favor of what we've seen at more relevant stops.

Here are my model's pre-practice simulations, and then we can lay out the bets I like for Sunday's race.

NASCAR Predictions for Kansas

NASCAR Betting Picks for Kansas

Chase Briscoe to Win (+1600)

Chase Briscoe is the exception on this list. His form on the flat tracks has been awesome.

To me, that makes his case even more compelling; we don't have to rely on older form data in order to justify betting him.

It's easy to forget that Briscoe had some really nice runs using the intermediate rules package earlier in the year. He was fourth in Homestead, fourth in Kansas, third in Charlotte, and runner-up in Dover. Those are all banked tracks. He also had a win at Pocono -- a flat track but with the same rules package -- mixed in there.

More recently, Briscoe won (and dominated) Darlington, another multi-groove track that features tire wear.

In other words, no matter what data you look at, Briscoe has had speed. And yet, we can get him at +1600 to win. I don't think that number should be available.

I've got Briscoe at 7.1% to win, fifth-highest in the field and above his 5.9% implied odds. Given I think my model is more likely to underrate than overrate him, I'm willing to bite at these odds.

Alex Bowman to Finish Top 5 (+350)

Alex Bowman is a value to win at +2500 for me. Given he's the lone Hendrick Motorsports car no longer in the playoffs, though, I'd rather settle for just the top five.

Bowman historically has peaked at tracks that feature tire wear, which Kansas does. That has been true this year, too, as he was runner-up in Homestead and fifth in the first Kansas race.

Overall, the Cup Series has run seven Next-Gen races at Kansas. Bowman missed one of them, but he has finished top-10 in all of the other six, and he was top-5 twice. As a result, I do think the outright is in play even though he's not in the playoffs, but +350 for a top 5 is super attractive.

AJ Allmendinger to Finish Top 10 (+410)

At intermediate tracks, AJ Allmendinger has been a force all year. That's why I have value on him across the board, including to win at +10000. I'm way above market on this bet, though.

My model has Dinger in the top 10 a whopping 31.2% of the time, up from 19.6% implied. And, frankly, I get it.

The Cup Series has run seven races on either 1.5-mile tracks or Darlington this year. Allmendinger has been top-10 in four of those (with two top-fives), and he had issues in two of the exceptions.

Basically, whenever he finished, buddy was bookin'.

Homestead is one of Allmendinger's best tracks, and Kansas has plenty of overlap with it thanks to the tire wear. Charlotte and Darlington are similar, and Dinger had top-fives at both tracks this year.

I do think you could justify him at +1300 to finish top 5 with all of this in mind. There's a chance the model is overselling his upside, though, which is why I'd rather ride with the more conservative market.

Noah Gragson to Finish Top 10 (+900)

This is the kind of track that suits both Noah Gragson and Front Row Motorsports best, so I like him as a longshot top-10 play.

Gragson has just one top-10 this year at a non-drafting oval. That came in Charlotte, another 1.5-mile track with tire wear. He was 14th in Kansas and 14th in the recent Darlington race, so Charlotte wasn't a fluke. That run was also legitimized by a 10th-place average running position.

We've seen a similar pattern out of Gragson's teammate, Zane Smith, so I think this is just where those cars run best. Gragson had a top-10 here with Stewart-Haas Racing last year, and I've got him at 17.0% to do it again on Sunday. That provides us with plenty of value at just 10.0% implied odds.

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Which drivers stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.