Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Advent Health 400 in Kansas

At the top of the odds board for this week's NASCAR Cup Series race in Kansas, I'm close to showing value on a bunch of guys. I just can't quite pull the trigger.

I'm within about a percentage point of showing value on Denny Hamlin, William Byron, and Tyler Reddick, all of whom are +800 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds. Given how easy it is to pass at this track, I don't care a ton about qualifying, and there's a good chance one of these drivers sees their odds extend after Saturday's session. Thus, I want to leave myself the flexibility to bet outrights after that time.

With that in mind, I'm skewing toward other markets to start things off this week. Luckily, I do think there's some good value in the top-5 and top-10 markets at FanDuel, and it's on drivers who have been fast at 1.5-mile tracks this year.

Let's start by laying out my model's pre-practice simulations, and then we'll discuss which bets I like prior to practice.

NASCAR Predictions for Kansas

NASCAR Betting Picks for Kansas

Alex Bowman to Finish Top 5 (+280)

If I were to bet a pre-practice outright, it'd be on Alex Bowman at +2200. He's the only driver in the field I have a full percentage point above market. For now, though, I'm comfortable starting with the top five.

Bowman brings a quality blend of form and track history. Kansas suits his skills well, as evidenced by his 5-for-5 record in finishing top-10 at the track during the Next Gen era. He led 107 laps in one of those. He also nearly won his first race here in 2019, leading 63 laps before finishing second.

Bowman had a great run in Homestead, another multi-groove, 1.5-mile track where tire wear is a factor. He was leading with just a couple of laps left before ultimately finishing second. He also had great speed last week in Texas before a poor pit stop led to his getting involved in a crash during the final stage.

As a result of all of this, my model has Bowman at 30.0% to finish top-5, up from 26.3% implied. I do think the outright is firmly in play, too, if you want to take a bigger swing.

AJ Allmendinger to Finish Top 10 (+500)

AJ Allmendinger got caught up in the same crash as Bowman last week, ending his day early. That came after he qualified 10th and flashed elite speed in practice, so I'm going back to Dinger again here.

Prior to Texas, the Cup Series had run two races on 1.5-mile tracks this year. Allmendinger finished top-10 in both of those and had a top-11 average running position each time. He was also eighth in Homestead last year, his lone Cup race on a 1.5-mile track.

We saw Allmendinger run well on this track type in the Xfinity Series last year as he won at Las Vegas and had top-fives in Texas and Charlotte. Now that Kaulig Racing's speed is less offensive than it was the previous year and a half, he's able to turn his skills into results.

I've got Allmendinger at 20.7% to claim another top-10, up from 16.7% implied.

Noah Gragson to Finish Top 10 (+650)

Noah Gragson is another driver -- like Bowman and Allmendinger -- who runs well at Homestead. It should be no surprise those skills have applied to Kansas, as well.

Gragson is a two-time winner here in the lower series, winning in the Truck Series in 2018 and Xfinity in 2022. On the Cup side of things, he finished ninth at Kansas last year, one of two top-10 runs for him on 1.5-mile tracks.

Front Row Motorsports' speed on this track type has been spotty at best in 2025. Their best finish on a 1.5-mile track is 11th from Zane Smith in Homestead, a race where Gragson finished 16th. Gragson, though, had an 11th-place average running position for the race after qualifying third, so he had enough speed to be competitive.

Even though I'm skeptical of this team right now, I'm willing to bite on Gragson when the market is being so forgiving.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.