Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bet for Thursday 4/3/25

Major League Baseball is a sport perfectly suited for same game parlays.

Not only do we have abundant options across the traditional markets and props for both pitchers and hitters, but plenty of those bets correlate well. Given parlays require all legs to hit, that cohesion is key.

Which SGP stands out to me tonight?

Let's dig into the Arizona Diamondbacks at the New York Yankees and lay out where I'm seeing value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds.

Please note lines and MLB player prop projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB SGP for Diamondbacks at Yankees

Leg 1: Carlos Carrasco Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+114)

As discussed in our daily strikeout prop piece, Carlos Carrasco is a value here despite his struggles in his Yankees debut.

Carrasco's strikeouts ticked up down the stretch last year as he leaned more on his changeup. That includes a matchup against this Diamondbacks lineup where he had 5 strikeouts across 4 1/3 innings.

Even with a low pitch count and some regression baked in, I have Carrasco projected at 3.62 strikeouts, enough to show value at plus money.

Leg 2: Merrill Kelly Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Although I like the Carrasco bet more individually, I'm also showing enough value on Merrill Kelly's over to lump him in for an SGP.

Kelly went 85 pitches in his first start this year, so he should be able to top 90 tonight. That's a healthy bit against a Yankees lineup that has a 23.6% strikeout rate against righties since the start of last year.

Due to Kelly's age and an increased reliance on a sinker that doesn't generate whiffs, my model isn't high on him in a vacuum. Still, the pitch count and matchup put his strikeout projection at 5.13. Pitchers in that range for me have gone over 4.5 strikeouts at a 57.7% clip, implying -120 is a fine price to pay.

Leg 3: Total Under 9.5 Runs (+102)

Whether it's due to torpedo bats, a sickly lineup, or anything else, 3 of 5 Yankees games have gone over 9.5 runs thus far. I think the hysteria around the bats has pushed this market higher than it should be.

Even accounting for two underwhelming pitchers and two plus offenses, I've got this total at 8.96 runs. That's a pretty lofty number for this time of year -- though a 68-degree temperature at first pitch is better than average for early April -- but it's still a good bit below market.

Both of these teams play good defense and have at least respectable bullpens. Thus, I'm fine fading the inflation we're seeing here likely due to all the buzz around the bats.

SGP Odds at Time of Publication: +475

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.