Argentina vs Cabo Verde: Will Messi Score the First Goal?

Full first goalscorer board · Analysis · Ranked picks · All odds FanDuel

📖 The Case For Messi Scoring First

Messi opened the scoring against Algeria in the 17th minute with a long-range strike, and he's been directly involved in the early stages of Argentina's attack in every group game this tournament. He's now the all-time leading goalscorer in men's World Cup history with 19 career goals, comfortably leads this tournament with six, and carries every incentive imaginable — extending his own record, pulling further ahead in the Golden Boot race, and doing it in what's almost certainly his final World Cup. Against a Cabo Verde side given just a 4.8% win probability tonight, there's no individual defender realistically capable of shutting him down for a full 90 minutes, let alone the opening exchanges.

⚖️ The Case Against

Cabo Verde's entire tournament has been built on a deep, disciplined defensive block that held Spain scoreless in the opener and drew with Uruguay and Saudi Arabia without a loss. Their plan tonight will almost certainly be to sit compact and absorb pressure for as long as possible, which historically tends to delay the opening goal against them rather than concede it early. Argentina also has a genuinely deep attacking cast — Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez are both live threats to beat Messi to the opening goal, and Argentina's own patient buildup play (rather than early transition chances) has sometimes meant the breakthrough comes later in the half rather than in the opening minutes.

📋 Full First Goalscorer Board — FanDuel

⭐ First Goalscorer Picks — Ranked

All odds FanDuel Sportsbook · First Goalscorer covers 90 minutes plus stoppage time only — extra time and penalty shootouts do not count, own goals do not count · Lionel Messi +195 · Julian Alvarez +300 · Lautaro Martinez +310 · Thiago Almada +650 · Enzo Fernandez +800 · Alexis Mac Allister +1100 · Rodrigo De Paul +1600 · No Goalscorer +1800 · Cristian Romero +2000 · Nahuel Molina +2200 · Lisandro Martinez +2200 · Dailon Livramento +2700 · Ryan Mendes +3000 · Facundo Medina +3000 · Willy Semedo +3000 · Jamiro Monteiro +4500 · Kevin Pina +6000 · Sidny Cabral +8000 · Diney Borges +10000 · Pico Lopes +10000 · Deroy Duarte +10000 · Steven Moreira +17500 · Argentina To Advance -1800 · Messi is the all-time leading World Cup goalscorer with 19 career goals · Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens FL · Tonight, Friday July 3, kickoff 6:00 PM ET · FOX/Telemundo · Winner faces Australia/Egypt winner in Round of 16 · Must be 21+ · Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER