Messi at -105 on FanDuel is plus-money for the greatest player in football history chasing the most famous individual record in sport. CBS Sports explicitly confirms the FanDuel board: -105 anytime, +290 first goal. The Posch injury is the key update: Austria's first-choice right-back is absent with a broken jaw, replaced by Laimer — a midfielder who doesn't naturally track wide attacking players or anticipate Messi's drifting right-half-space patterns. Against a high defensive line run by an out-of-position midfielder, Messi's 5 shots (4 SoT) volume from vs Algeria could actually increase. He's Argentina's primary penalty taker — every foul in the box is a Messi anytime goal. $10 at -105 returns $19.52.

Álvarez at ~+175 is the value secondary pick. With Lautaro on the bench, he's Argentina's starting CF — the player Messi's through balls find centrally. In 2022 he was one of the tournament's standout performers with 4 WC goals. His movement (dropping deep, spinning in behind, arriving late from left of centre) is Austria's biggest defensive challenge from a CF who isn't Messi. Alaba and Lienhart are strong centrally but Álvarez's work rate and running creates space for Messi and arrival chances for himself. $10 at ~+175 returns $27.50.

Confirm official XI before wagering. Lautaro odds shift significantly if not starting. All approximate.

Sabitzer at ~+550 is the primary Austrian scorer pick with the strongest editorial stat behind it. The Racing Post's data — scored the first goal in five of Austria's last ten matches — is remarkable for a midfielder and elevates his anytime case beyond what the odds suggest. He's the #1 FK and corner taker for Austria (4 per game, RotoWire), generating set-piece shots every time Austria win a dead ball. At Man Utd he's maintained consistent SoT volume (7 of last 9 matches). $10 at +550 returns $65.