AL Cy Young Odds: Corbin Burnes Surpasses Tarik Skubal

The American League Cy Young race has essentially been between two pitchers this season. With another month of play behind, this has remained the case, but the race has narrowed at the top.

The Detroit Tigers' Tarik Skubal was the favorite to win the award in our last AL Cy Young update, but the Baltimore Orioles' Corbin Burnes has caught up to the Tigers' ace. Burnes entered the season as the AL Cy Young favorite due to Gerrit Cole's injury.

Following Burnes and Skubal, the gap has increased with the next-best odds sitting at +1000, per FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB award odds. Is Burnes or Skubal looking like the best bet to win the award? Which aces could catch up to Burnes and Skubal in the Cy Young race? Here's how the AL Cy Young odds are shaking out with nearly half of the regular season behind us.

AL Cy Young Odds

Corbin Burnes (+240)

Corbin Burnes' stats are rivaling his Cy Young campaign with the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2021 season. He is currently carrying an AL-best 2.14 ERA, a 1.036 WHIP, and 3.49 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Burnes' ERA is on pace for a career-high, but his other numbers aren't quite up to snuff to his 2021 campaign.

The Orioles' top dog is on pace for his third-best mark in WHIP and SIERA. He's been excellent since May, vaulting into the top spot for the Cy Young. Over his last nine starts, Burnes is touting a 1.88 ERA with opponents batting only .219.

The right-handed hurler has also aided his ability to limit hard contact since May. Burnes allowed five homers over his first six starts. Since, Baltimore's top starter has given up only three big flies over nine starts. He's already in the top 17% in ground ball percentage, per Savant. Pair easy groundouts with limiting extra-base hits, and Burnes becomes one of the most feared starters in baseball.

Tarik Skubal (+250)

June has not been kind to Tarik Skubal, resulting in the Tigers' fifth-year pitcher falling out of the top spot for this award. He's given up four runs in back-to-back appearances, totaling a 6.97 ERA during the span.

Skubal had only given up 4 runs in 2 of his 13 starts prior to these recent outings. He is in the midst of the worst stretch of his 2024 season. Skubal's WHIP and SIERA are now behind his 2023 marks.

He also totaled the lowest strikeout total during a two-game span over his last appearances on the mound. Skubal still sits in the 89th percentile of strikeout percentage (K%), but logging only nine strikeouts over his previous two certainly harmed this metric.

Overall, Burnes has flourished in recent starts and has vaulted past Skubal. This race is still far from over, but Burnes could have the advantage due to his impact on a winning team.

The O's have the second-best record in the AL and are tied for the fourth-shortest odds to win the World Series, per FanDuel's MLB odds. Meanwhile, Detroit is 34-40 and now sits at +790 to make the playoffs.

Garrett Crochet (+1000)

Let's also take some time to look at who could catch up to Burnes and Skubal. The Chicago White Sox have been a wreck this season, carrying the worst record in baseball at 20-56. Garrett Crochet is one of the few bright spots of the franchise.

He's stepped into a starting role for the first time this season. The move has paid off immensely with Crochet holding a 3.25 ERA, 0.947 WHIP, and 2.41 SIERA. His WHIP is the second-lowest mark in the AL, and the SIERA is the second-lowest number in MLB.

Crochet was absurd from May to June 13th, carrying a 1.13 ERA while averaging 8.6 strikeouts each start. He's a rising name in the Cy Young race that's worth keeping tabs on. Crochet gave up three runs in his most recent start, but if he gets back to his numbers through May and early June, we could see a new pitcher crash the party.

Tanner Houck (+1000)

The Boston Red Sox's Tanner Houck was making a run at the AL Cy Young after posting a 1.05 ERA over four starts from May 15th to May 31st. He's come back to Earth over his previous three outings, carrying a 3.38 ERA during the span.

Still, Houck shouldn't be counted out just yet. The fifth-year righty still has a 2.14 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 3.02 SIERA on the season. These are career-highs across the board. Plus, Houck's ERA is tied with Burnes for the lowest in the AL.

The Red Sox's hurler doesn't have eye-popping strikeout numbers, though. He's in the 63rd percentile of K% and has 94 strikeouts in 2024. This is good for an average of 6.3 Ks each appearance, which is nothing to write home about.

Burnes and Skubal are still the clear top dogs for the AL Cy Young award. We've seen the Orioles' ace grab the lead once again due to recent numbers. Crochet could have the best chance of catching the leaders thanks to his dominance dating back May.

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