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Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Win Simulations: Can Anybody Top Red Bull?
For nine teams in the Formula 1 paddock, Sunday is their final shot at glory.
The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will wrap up the 2023 season, and to this point, Red Bull has won all but one race. Max Verstappen has already broken his own record for wins in a season with 18, and he's the runaway favorite to grab number 19 on Sunday.
Can anybody else give Red Bull a run for their money?
Here's what the simulations say heading into Friday's first practice session.
Driver | Win Sims | Podium | Top 6 | Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 73.6% | 89.5% | 89.6% | 89.6% |
| Lando Norris | 10.1% | 62.5% | 84.7% | 86.9% |
| Sergio Perez | 4.7% | 36.7% | 72.5% | 85.3% |
| Charles Leclerc | 4.1% | 33.7% | 70.8% | 85.1% |
| Lewis Hamilton | 2.0% | 19.4% | 56.6% | 82.8% |
| Oscar Piastri | 2.3% | 18.7% | 53.6% | 81.2% |
| Carlos Sainz | 1.2% | 13.9% | 46.1% | 77.9% |
Once again, Verstappen is the clear favorite. And his win odds in the sims (73.6%) aren't that much lower than his implied odds (76.7% in FanDuel Sportsbook's Formula 1 betting odds), so it does seem like the model is giving the three-time champ proper respect.
And yet they do still show value in Lando Norris.
Norris is +1400 to win at FanDuel, putting his implied odds at 6.7%. In the sims, he's 10.1%, so there's a decent amount of wiggle room there.
The reason for optimism for Norris is obvious: in 13 races since McLaren gave his car major upgrades, Norris has 7 podiums and 5 runner-ups. If Verstappen has his first retirement of the year, Norris is a good bet to be the guy who capitalizes.
Questioning whether Norris can beat Verstappen straight up is fair. That would be a tall ask. But I do think there's enough here to justify considering Norris at +1400 to win.
The other driver who grades out as being undervalued is someone who came through for us last week in Lance Stroll. Stroll rallied from a poor starting spot to finish fifth there, and there's value for him to finish top six again.
The model has Stroll at 16.6% to finish top six. He has now finished top six in 23.8% of all races, including each of the past two. With Stroll's implied top-six odds at +1000 being 9.1%, we can justify going right back to the well.
Which drivers do you want to bet for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest F1 betting odds to see the full menu of markets.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
