5 Best Player Prop Bets for the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals
The final eight teams alive for this year's College Football Playoff (CFP) National Championship are set, and we will head off campus to former "New Year's Six" marquee bowl games to decide which four advance to the semis.
College football is filled with wild shootouts, big plays, and lopsided performances. A fun way to get in on the action is through player prop bets via the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Prop markets range anywhere from touchdown scorers to yardage props.
Which college football props are the best ones to target this week? Let's take a look.
College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Player Prop Picks
Penn State vs. Boise State
Drew Allar Over 225.5 Passing Yards (-114)
One of the reasons I gave out a bet on Drew Aller's odds to lead the CFP in passing yards was his opportunity to play the maximum of four games. The other was this projected matchup.
After consecutive pick-sixes to start the First Round against SMU, Penn State didn't need much of Allar. He threw for just 127 yards on 22 attempts.
SMU, though, ranked 32nd in FBS in passing YPA allowed (6.5). Even against lesser competition in the MWC, Boise State ranked 82nd in the country (7.6). The Broncos also were a top-25 team against the rush in that regard (3.6 YPA), funneling opponents to the air on a per-attempt basis -- not just by having huge leads.
Therefore, it's plausible the Nittany Lions might actually need their NFL Draft prospect at quarterback in this one to build a margin. I have confidence in Allar to deliver. He was 11th in QBR this year (80.5) despite facing seven top-50 schools in passing YPA allowed.
If the Broncos keep it any sort of close, Allar averaged 251.8 passing yards in four one-score games this year, and this is a much softer matchup than any of those.
Texas vs. Arizona State
Cam Skattebo Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Jaydon Blue Anytime Touchdown (-135)
To me, the most fascinating topic of the CFP Quarterfinals is how the Arizona State Sun Devils handle easily their toughest defensive assignment of the year.
ASU has been running it down the Big 12's throat, but that's not overly likely against the Texas Longhorns, who are eighth in rushing yards per attempt allowed (3.1). Four of the Sun Devils' last seven opponents were bottom-40 schools in that category.
As a result, I think they'll have to get more creative with Cam Skattebo's touches. He's certainly capable. With Jordyn Tyson injured, Skattebo's 13.5% target share for the season is the second-highest surviving mark on the team, and he's topped this in 7 of his 12 games with an average of 42.2 receiving yards per game. In three of the exceptions, he ran for at least 125 yards and wasn't needed as a receiver.
Skattebo's rushing prop is surprisingly low (99.5), but that's Texas in the trenches. I'm expecting a negative script where Skattebo is plenty busy against UT's elite pass rush.
Shifting to the Longhorns' side, their backfield dynamic is another place for potential value.
Early in the season, Jaydon Blue was the starter leading rusher in front of Quintrevion Wisner, but fumble problems and injury led to Wisner dominating this backfield through the SEC Championship. After time off for Blue to heal, the split was fairly even in the First Round; Wisner earned 17 touches to Blue's 16, and both backs scored.
If both rushers continue to be productive, that even split probably sticks around. I'm not sure why Wisner is 63.0% implied to score to Blue's 57.3% with that the case -- especially when a 12.5-point spread likely means more of the "backup" skill guys in a blowout.
Blue has scored a combined seven times in five games where he saw at least 15 touches. With a quality workload back for now, this steep price is still quite appealing.
Ohio State vs. Oregon
Tez Johnson Under 75.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Tez Johnson is coming off a gigantic effort in the Big Ten Championship, notching 12 targets, 11 catches, 181 yards, and a tud.
That's just not the norm for him.
The reality is this Oregon Ducks offense spreads it around even if Johnson is the leader in the clubhouse with the team's best target share (22.9%). That was just Johnson's second time eclipsing 75 receiving yards in his previous six games, and that magic number -- 75 -- was his exact total against the Ohio State Buckeyes in these schools' first matchup. Most of that came on a 48-yard grab.
Evan Stewart (149 yards) led the Ducks in receiving that day on equal receptions (7) and targets (8). Stewart's receiving prop is just 39.5 in this one. I can't enthusiastically expect another monster game from Tez when Ohio State's elite defense is second across FBS in passing YPA allowed (5.6) and third in EPA per drop back (-0.16).
Liking the under in this game environment, I'm expecting both teams to focus on ball control rather than play a second shootout in the rematch.
Notre Dame vs. Georgia
Riley Leonard Anytime Touchdown (+120)
There's something about this Notre Dame Fighting Irish team that feels more stable, and I believe it's Riley Leonard's willingness to use his legs to make things happen.
Leonard is now ND's all-time leader in rushing touchdowns for a QB (15), yet he's plus coin to score in Notre Dame's biggest game of the year.
I get it; the Georgia Bulldogs built a dynasty off elite rush defense, but I'm not so sure Jalen Carter or Travon Walker are walking through that door. UGA is just 29th in rushing YPA allowed (3.8) and 9th in rushing EPA per carry (-0.10). Notre Dame's dominant offensive line should hang here if the pick 'em spread is any indication.
Ultimately, Leonard sits at 61.5 rush yards per game and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game despite nine of the Irish's games being decided by at least 14 points. If anything, we should expect him to scramble more in a must-win situation against a worthy foe.
While still endorsing both, it's easy to prefer the touchdown prop in lieu of a yardage prop just in case a couple of bad sacks eat into his rushing total. In college, those yards count.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.