5 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Sunday 11/24/24
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.
Today's Best NBA Bets and Player Props
Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers
Wizards Over 114.5 Points (-110)
Kyle Kuzma Over 23.5 Points (-102)
Away Team Total Points
The Washington Wizards seem atrocious, but this is the type of environment in which they can compete.
I was floored by their defensive strength of schedule to this point. They've played just four games against a bottom-10 defensive rating (DRTG), going 2-2 straight up (SU) in those contests at an average of 119.3 points in them. The only time below this line in those four games came against the Knicks, who are also 28th in pace and not prone to high-scoring affairs.
However, the Indiana Pacers are. Indiana is 8th in pace and 24th in DRTG, providing hope for the Wizards to not only score points but to compete to win the game behind their own league-worst D.
This game might end up smashing its lofty over (241.5), but I specifically see the Wizards as undervalued to score because of their 108.9 points per game (PPG) average. It's almost exclusively due to schedule.
Kyle Kuzma - Points
Just having a full game to work should be all Kyle Kuzma needs to top 20 points in this high-paced matchup.
Kuzma has been held below 30 minutes in seven of Washington's nine games this year because they're constantly blown out, but with Jordan Poole (hip) off the floor, he's still averaging 24.9 points per 36 minutes on a team-best 25.9% usage rate. I expect the scoring to go up as the defensive strength of schedule goes down.
That could start today. Indiana's general defensive issues percolate at the power forward spot, allowing the most points per game in the league to the position (27.0).
FanDuel Research's NBA DFS projections have Kuzma projected for 23.5 points on Sunday.
Los Angeles Clippers at Philadelphia 76ers
Clippers Moneyline (-132)
Kris Dunn Over 16.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-125)
Moneyline
Not that they've mattered to the Philadelphia 76ers' win-loss record, but Joel Embiid (knee) and Paul George (knee) won't suit up for the Sixers on Sunday. Two good basketball players out of the lineup invite a play onto the Los Angeles Clippers.
Per PBP Stats, Philadelphia has a -6.0 net rating (NRTG) in games where Embiid and George haven't played this season, which would be 24th in the league on its own. To the surprise of many, the Clippers' NRTG (+2.2) is positive in their current health state that hasn't included a second of Kawhi Leonard (knee).
L.A. has covered the spread in four of six games on the road this season, which would require a win here. I'd shop this moneyline a bit as domestic sportsbooks are a bit misaligned on how big of a favorite the Clips should be today.
Kris Dunn - Pts + Reb + Ast
In order to surprise the masses, certain Clippers have had to step up and produce. Los Angeles found a gem in guard Kris Dunn.
Dunn has slid past Terance Mann into the starting lineup, stabilizing his role to play at least 25 minutes in five of the Clippers' last seven -- and one of those was a blowout. In this stretch, "The Dunngeon" has posted 9.0 points, 4.3 assists, and 3.9 rebounds per game. That's good for 17.2 PRA.
With just a 14.8% usage rate, Dunn's production isn't as sensitive to matchup -- not as if Philadelphia's 26th-ranked DRTG isn't a pretty good one for a wing. We've got him projected for 19.2 PRA today.
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
Mavericks +3 (-110)
Spread Betting
This is one of those situations where it definitely benefits to overthink things.
At a one-basket margin, the injury report broke the Miami Heat's way today. Miami will get back Jimmy Butler (illness) if his probable listing is true. On the flip side, the Dallas Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic (wrist). Losing the best player in the NBA is quite a blow, right?
Well, Dallas still has what they need to beat the Heat, dropping from a +7.0 NRTG with Doncic on the floor to just +3.3 without him. The problem? The 6-7 Heat have a -0.3 net rating with Butler on the floor, so you could still make an argument that last year's Western Conference champs are the better team.
The Mavs have played the Thunder and Nuggets without Doncic in the past week and played them to a +2.5 NRTG. On equal rest, Miami should be a cupcake in comparison.
I'll take the one-basket margin in this spot, but don't be surprised if Dallas wins outright.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.