5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 6/22/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins

Over 4.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (-106)

The Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins have alternated quiet offensive showings in the first two games of this South Beach series. I think both can make a little early noise here.

That's really due to the pitchers at hand. Atlanta's Bryce Elder remains the proverbial silly dragon of the rotation, amassing a shaky 4.78 xERA on the back of balancing a solid rate of groundballs (52.0%) with plenty of hard contact (47.7% rate allowed). Elder has ceded 1.48 HR/9 as a result of mistakes with the sinker being punished.

It pains me to throw Sandy Alcantara in his tier, but Alcantara's nightmare 2025 shows an identical xERA (4.78) despite how much of a 6.88 ERA might be poor fortune. Alcantara has struggled with walks (10.5% rate) while giving up his own fair share of barrels (9.3% rate) and homers (1.32 HR/9).

In the past 30 days against righties, Atlanta (.711 team OPS) and Miami (.694) aren't anything to write home about, but they also aren't true outliers.

I'm avoiding the Bravos' bullpen and their league-best 3.23 xFIP over the past month with this first-five market.

Cleveland Guardians at Athletics

Over 9.5 Runs (-110)

Sutter Health Park has truly yet to bear its teeth in this series between the Cleveland Guardians and Athletics. A warm day at MLB's sixth-best park for homers this year could produce fireworks given these starters.

The visitors will have Slade Cecconi toe the slab, and he's arguably one of the most vulnerable home run targets in baseball. Cecconi's massive flyball (44.6%) and hard-hit (47.1%) rates allowed have led to 1.78 HR/9 surrendered in a decent sample of 30.1 innings.

Meanwhile, JP Sears of the A's might be worse. Sears has allowed 2.13 HR/9 in 76.0 innings, and it's not poor luck with a 4.54 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) that largely validates his actual (5.45).

We'll get to Sears' contact splits in a moment, but these clubs also sports two of the bottom-eight reliever SIERAs over the past 30 days. Neither offense would be my first pick for a shootout, but one of them is primed to explode in this minor league ballpark.

Carlos Santana to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Unfortunately, Carlos Santana let me down on Dinger Tuesday. I'm not one to hold grudges, though.

The 39-year-old was just a good bet at his lengthy number whereas, today, he's a great bet for an outright. Against left-handed pitching in the past 30 days, Slamtana has delivered a sensational 46.4% flyball rate and 56.3% hard-hit rate across 36 plate appearances (PAs). The results (.574 OPS) have just been unlucky.

A better matchup with Sears today should help, too. The southpaw's gaudy homer totals are no surprise with a 50.4% flyball and 9.3% barrel rate allowed. He's not missing many bats, either, per a 7.3% swinging-strike rate.

Of course, a reeling Athletics 'pen could provide a small chance to cash this late, but I want a piece of Santana against Sears when his contact against lefties just hasn't been rewarded recently.

Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants

Rafael Devers to Record 2+ Total Bases (+110)

One of my first thoughts when the Boston Red Sox traded Rafael Devers with this revenge series was looming was if he'd get to face Lucas Giolito.

The right-handed weak link in the Sox's rotation likely isn't thrilled to see his former teammate coming. Giolito has largely struggled this season, posting a 5.24 xERA and elevated hard-hit rate allowed (47.1%). If you're concerned about his 1.93 road ERA, it's largely driven by matchups with the Braves, Kansas City Royals, and Seattle Mariners. The Toronto Blue Jays managed three earned in 6.0 innings.

Frankly, the San Francisco Giants' .668 team OPS against righties in the past month might allow him to shove again, but Devers can be an exception to the rule. He's tattooed righties for a .905 OPS and .286 ISO in his brief time with S.F.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 2.27 total median bases from Raffy on Sunday. Plus money here is a good deal.

Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers -1.5 (-128)

The excitement of Shohei Ohtani's second trip to the mound aside, the Los Angeles Dodgers are in a great spot to wash the taste of last night's loss out of their collective mouths.

Ohtani wasn't super effective to post a 5.57 SIERA in his first trip, but he should be in store for another brief outing before handing things over to a Dodgers bullpen with a 3.69 SIERA in the past 30 days. That's certainly a huge advantage opposite the Washington Nationals, whose 'pen has the worst SIERA across baseball in this time (4.35).

Washington's starter is no ace, either. Michael Soroka's 3.50 SIERA says he deserves better than a 5.06 ERA, but he's also overperforming in its components. Soroka's 9.5% swinging-strike rate is far more plain than you need to maintain a 24.3% K rate, and he's allowing his fair share of hard-hit balls (41.8%). He's coughed up 1.88 HR/9 to this point, too.

With two righties on the bump, L.A. (.805) has a significantly better team OPS in the past 30 days in this split than D.C. (.684). I'll drink some juice for the Dodgers to rebound by two-plus.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.