5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 8/16/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians

Guardians Over 4.5 Runs (+116)

Oddsmakers are pretty confident in exactly four Cleveland Guardians runs tonight with 61.8% implied odds on the line at 3.5 but just 46.3% implied odds on this prop.

I still see a pretty monstrous night for Cleveland against Joey Wentz and a struggling Atlanta Braves bullpen. Wentz's 4.59 skill-interactive ERA is mediocre and has come with elevated flyball (41.4%) and hard-hit rates (44.7%) allowed on a 78.2% contact rate. The lefty's posted a 5.06 ERA in August, and the aforementioned Bravos pen has a 4.27 SIERA (23rd in MLB) over the past 30 days.

As a shocking stat, the once-impotent Guardians offense has smashed southpaws in the last month for an .817 OPS. That's fifth in baseball when I expected a bottom-five mark.

Cleveland hasn't topped four runs in six straight games with righties in the bump. Changing sides of the dish should be helpful.

Gabriel Arias to Record 2+ Total Bases (+155)

One of their secret weapons in the split is infielder Gabriel Arias.

He's really shown an impressive bat in both splits in limited August action, but his 15 plate appearances (PAs) against lefties have tallied a 1.267 OPS, .600 ISO, and whopping 54.5% hard-hit rate.

Wentz has, as one would expect, struggled more with power against opposite-handed sticks like Arias. He's let them slug .428 compared to just .305 for lefties.

The promotion to a projected sixth in the order gives him some viability in the prop market, too.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections don't mind the extreme plus money here, projecting Arias for 1.39 median total bases on season-long data. His bat is much hotter at present.

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

Over 8.5 Runs (-114)

One of these weekend series games at Target Field should be a marathon.

The Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins both have bottom-three bullpens (by SIERA) over the past 30 days, and only one got tagged yesterday in Detroit's 7-0 victory. Both starting pitchers in this game are sketchy, so I'll plant my flag that we're running the race tonight.

Detroit's Casey Mize tows the line of average with pride. Mize's 3.50 ERA comes with a pedestrian 4.08 SIERA behind it, and he's had a run in or two with the long ball (1.37 HR/9 allowed). Meanwhile, Zebby Matthews' 3.04 SIERA seems like an issue, but the Aussie hasn't turned his large swinging-strike rate (13.0 SwStr%) into gold yet. He's given up at least three runs in five of nine starts this year.

Though the Tigers (.680 OPS vs. RHP in the last 30 days) have tailed off a bit offensively, that didn't hurt last night in MLB's 12th-best park for offense. We'll see which 'pen gets torched on Saturday.

Matt Wallner to Hit a Home Run (+330)

At 6'4" and 220 pounds, Matt Wallner is a big dude with now nearly two full years of torching right-handed pitching. I feel like I never hear about him.

Wallner is one again on a tear in the split, posting a 1.107 OPS, .429 ISO, 52.9% flyball rate, and 38.2% hard-hit rate over his last 63 PAs. He's got 6 bombs in these 63 PAs -- good for a 9.5% chance of one every time he steps to the dish lately.

Mize has let up 3.27 HR/9 in August and four homers in his last two starts. Three of those four batters were lefties, including...Matt Wallner on August 4th at Comerica. Now, he'll be the visitor.

FDR's projections are extremely bullish on Wallner's chances to round the bases (0.38 median HRs). We'd have set him closer to +216 for a dong.

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

Padres Moneyline (+112)

Betting the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight feels like buying Blake Snell at his apex.

Snell struck out 10 over 5.0 innings in his last start, but a 5.40 ERA in the prior appearance from the injured list sort of implies he's not really a known quantity. The southpaw's 2.37 ERA has a much larger SIERA (4.32) behind it, and his 12.6% walk rate does a ton of that damage.

On the other side, Dylan Cease of the San Diego Padres might be undervalued. Cease's 4.52 ERA is showing more bad luck this year, per a 3.33 SIERA. He's kept the walks in check (9.1% BB) and, amazingly, even has a higher 15.1 SwStr% than Snell (13.1%).

So, where's the value from the Dodgers' ace? San Diego also has a higher team OPS against lefties in the last 30 days (.758) than L.A. does righties (.743), and the Padres' bullpen (2.92 SIERA) has been much more reliable than the Dodgers' (3.81).

In this pivotal NL West clash for divisional positioning, I'll take the Dads to even the series.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.