4 NFL Touchdown Picks for Week 4

Taking anytime touchdown props via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook is a fun way to wager on the NFL.

Which touchdown picks make sense for this week? Let's dig in.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Best NFL TD Bets: Week 4

Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown (+125)

For the first time in his career, Aaron Jones will be on the opposite side of the rivalry between the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers in Week 4. To begin his tenure with the Vikings, Jones is getting solid usage despite sharing the backfield with Ty Chandler.

Across his first three games in purple, Jones is averaging 14.0 carries and 4.7 targets for 108.3 scrimmage yards per game while logging a fantastic 52.4% rushing success rate, via NextGenStats. The red-zone usage is also ideal for Jones as he's gotten a 67.7% red-zone snap rate (compared to Chandler earning just a 32.3% red-zone snap rate).

Up to this point, the Vikings have had three carries inside the five-yard line, and Jones has received all of them. Meanwhile, the Packers are allowing the third-most rushing yards over expected per attempt (1.15) and the seventh-most rushing expected points added per attempt (-0.03) to RBs.

What helps our case even more is the fact Jones is also a threat to haul in a TD as he's registering the second-highest target share (19.4%) and second-most yards per route run (2.37) in Minnesota's offense. After spending seven years doing the Lambeau Leap as a member of the Packers, Jones could execute the celebration for the first time with a horn on his helmet.

Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown (+115)

Tank Dell is trending toward not being available for Sunday's game for the Houston Texans, which should condense the targets to the other WRs in the offense. While Stefon Diggs hasn't scored a TD since finding the end zone twice in Week 1, there's reason to believe he crosses the goal line in Week 4 versus the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Nico Collins has proven to be the No. 1 wideout for C.J. Stroud for the second straight year, but Diggs has emerged as the clear No. 2 in the aerial attack -- even before Dell got injured. In his first three outings on the Texans, Diggs is posting the second-highest target share (22.2%) and second-most yards per route run (1.58) in an offense that is tied for the second-highest implied point total (26.0) on Sunday.

Whenever Houston is in the red zone, there's a good chance Diggs is on the field as he's sporting a team-high 95.5% red-zone snap rate. Only Collins has a higher red-zone target share (33.3%) and end-zone target share (66.7%) than Diggs, who has a 25.0% red-zone target share and 16.7% end-zone target share.

Ahead of Sunday's action, our fantasy football projections are giving Diggs the third-best chance (0.57) of recording a receiving TD of the WRs playing on Sunday, putting him ahead of Collins -- who has -105 odds to score. The two wideouts who are forecasted to have a better chance to tally a receiving score by the projections (Ja'Marr Chase and Marvin Harrison Jr.) both have odds at +100 or shorter.

Najee Harris Anytime Touchdown (+110)

Under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the Pittsburgh Steelers have unsurprisingly become a run-heavy team with the seventh-lowest pass rate over expected (-10.6%) entering Week 4. At the center of Pittsburgh's rushing attack is Najee Harris, who could be handling an even bigger workload on Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts.

Harris is currently leading the way for the Steelers with 18.3 rushes and 3.0 targets per game, and he leads the team's RBs in red-zone snap rate (60.7%). Jaylen Warren seems to be doubtful to play in Week 4 with a knee ailment, which would improve Harris' chances of hitting pay dirt for the first time in 2024.

The matchup is an inviting one as the Colts surrendered 150-plus rushing yards to the previous two starting RBs before facing D'Andre Swift and the Chicago Bears' dismal rushing attack in Week 3. Just to illustrate how woeful Chicago's ground game has been, Swift is logging a dreadful -2.25 rushing yards over expected per attempt and a minuscule 18.9% rushing success rate.

There have been 24 players who have notched 38-plus carries this season, and Harris -- who has the seventh-most rushing attempts (55) -- is just 1 of 2 players who has failed to score a rushing touchdown in that sample. With Harris garnering a 52.6% red-zone rushing share, it's only a matter of time before he reverses his fortune and finally gets in the TD column. It only helps our case that Harris scoring is one of FanDuel Research's Annie Nader's favorite prop bets in Week 4.

Michael Wilson Anytime Touchdown (+250)

There are expected to be plenty of points scored in Sunday's showdown between the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders, with the game carrying the highest total of the games in Week 4. While the vast majority of people will understandably be backing Marvin Harrison Jr. to find the end zone for the third straight week, there is value in taking Michael Wilson to score for the Cardinals.

Trey McBride has been ruled out for Sunday's contest, and Arizona possesses the highest implied point total (27.0) of the teams playing on Sunday. With Kyler Murray having -138 odds to throw two-plus passing TDs, there is room for multiple pass-catchers on the Cardinals to eat against a putrid Commanders pass defense.

Even though Wilson has a forgettable 1.23 yards per route run, he has the highest snap rate (79.4%) and route rate (79.4%) of the players not named Harrison or McBride in Arizona's offense. At the same time, Wilson is sporting a formidable 66.7% red-zone snap rate and he is one of three players on the Cardinals to receive an end-zone target this season -- which resulted in his lone TD so far.

Washington's defense has mightily struggled against WRs, allowing the third-most yards per route run (2.03) and most receiving TDs (9) to the position. Our projections are giving Wilson a 0.36 chance of catching a TD on Sunday, putting him around players like Chris Godwin, Chris Olave, and Terry McLaurin.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.