3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 4

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our NFL projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for this week.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Prop Picks for Week 4

Aaron Jones Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Let's kick off our Week 4 NFL props by looking for Aaron Jones to shine in a revenge game. Jones spent seven seasons with the Green Bay Packers before joining an NFC North foe Minnesota Vikings team this offseason.

His performance and usage this far -- and this matchup against the Pack -- are what leads me to target over 58.5 rushing yards for Jones this weekend.

In Week 1, Jones turned 14 carries into 94 yards and a touchdown score. He managed just nine carries for 32 yards in the second week versus the San Francisco 49ers, but we've gotta add an asterisk to this one. Minnesota had possession for just 25 minutes in that game. Further, Jones got banged up at the end of the third quarter, left the game for a few plays, and logged just one carry thereafter. He shined again in Week 3, handling 19 carries for 102 yards and one receiving score.

Christian Darrisaw owns the fourth-best run blocking grade among all left tackles, which has in part, allowed Jones to log 5.3 yards per carry. Darrisaw missed Thursday's practice due to an illness, so I'd keep an eye out for his status. Considering he was out for a non-contact injury, I feel pretty ok about his outlook for Sunday.

Green Bay's defensive line ranked 31st heading into Week 3 (per PFF). They jumped up ten spots after pouncing on the Tennessee Titans, but I don't know how much of a victory lap they can do after silencing one of the worst offenses in the league. Jones is averaging 1.24 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C), which is the fifth-best mark in the league. With T.J. Hockenson and potentially Jordan Addison still out, Minnesota will want to continue setting Sam Darnold up for success by exploiting Jones' efficiency.

If you like Jones' chances to pull off the Lambeau Leap this Sunday, you can get his touchdown prop at +120 odds. He's handled a 48.2% red zone rush share and a 20.0% total target share (second-highest on team) this season.

D.J. Moore Anytime Touchdown (+170)

31 NFL players have reeled in at least 165 yards this season, and 24 of them have scored at least one touchdown. 9 players have drawn at least 28 targets, and 8 of them have scored at least one touchdown. The lone outlier here? D.J. Moore.

Moore has been targeted 28 times for 167 yards but has yet to reach the end zone for the Chicago Bears. He's the best touchdown regression candidate we have entering Week 4.

If we pull back to curtain even further, we can see just how unlucky Moore has been. 19 out of 22 players (86.2%) who have logged at least 22 targets have scored, and 39 out of 58 players (67.2%) who have seen at least 16 targets have scored.

Was Moore's bad luck exacerbated by Caleb Williams' tough professional start? Of course. But a 25.0% target share, 20.0% red zone target share, and 97.7% route participation rate means something in any offense, and Williams has some of his mojo back after tossing 363 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3.

The opposing Los Angeles Rams come in with numberFire's 31st-ranked pass defense. The Bears have the second least efficient run game, averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. With the run game dust, Chicago is throwing the ball at the league's fifth-highest rate. This match also sets up to be one of the fastest games in Week 4 (per Brandon Gdula's pace numbers). Moore is one of just 15 wideouts who have been afforded at least five targets in the red zone this season. There were 16 touchdowns scored in that split.

Najee Harris Anytime Touchdown (+125)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have notched as many touchdowns (3) as they have wins (3) this season. It's a highly impressive feat for an offense that we aren't typically high on.

But Justin Fields has looked pretty good in the passing game, checking in with PFF's fifth-best passing grade as the league's fourth-best downfield passer. We could see Pittsburgh tread on the red zone against the Indianapolis Colts' 25th-ranked pass defense this weekend, particularly since Indy might be banged up pretty bad. Kenny Moore (hip), who ranks eighth among NFL cornerbacks heading into Week 4 (per PFF), is on the injury report and did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. So is Chris Lammons (knee), one of Moore's primary backups.

Pittsburgh's passing game could greatly benefit from these injuries, and we know just the guy who is due to convert in the red zone: Najee Harris.

Harris has handled 55 carries (sixth-most through Week 3) for 209 yards this season. Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson have been afterthoughts in the run game, combining for just 24 carries. Warren (knee) is also at risk of missing this game. He has yet to practice as of Thursday.

Harris has seen intriguing red zone usage but has yet to capitalize off of it. 17 players have logged at least 9 red zone carries this season. All but two of them have scored in this split: Josh Jacobs and Harris. In fact, 13 of those 15 scorers notched at least two touchdowns in that split. I'll back Harris to finally get over the hump this Sunday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.