March Madness: 5 Most Overrated Teams in the 2026 NCAA Tournament

March is for Cinderella runs and "Sister Jean" moments, but not every mid-major can bust brackets and cut deep into the tournament like Loyola Chicago in 2018 or VCU in 2011.

Most of us feel inclined to have a couple of Cinderellas going deep in our bracket, but nobody wants to bank on the performance of teams that might be significantly worse than their seed indicates. Looking at advanced metrics and analytics will help tremendously with sorting the dark horse contenders from the mid-major pretenders.

Here are the five squads who the numbers say that they don't deserve the seed they've been given by the committee. One of these teams is the worst at-large bid we've seen in a long time.

Check out our favorite March Madness sleepers and March Madness upset picks as well as our NCAA Tournament printable bracket.

NCAA Tournament: Most Overrated Teams

Miami (OH) -- 11 Seed, Play-in to Midwest Region

• EvanMiya Rating: 8.3
• Historical Seed Rating: 16
• Differential: -7.5

The team with the best record in college basketball this season isn’t Duke. It’s not Michigan. It’s not Arizona. It’s Miami of freakin’ Ohio.

At 31-1, the RedHawks flew through the regular season untouched before stumbling hard in the MAC tournament to ho-hum UMass for their first defeat of the campaign. Even at 31-1, Miami had to sweat as the brackets were announced because nothing about this team (aside from the record) is impressive.

Let's get this ever-important disclaimer out of the way. Miami (OH) deserves to be in the tournament. The results on the court need to matter, otherwise why play the games? Even if Miami's underlying metrics and the ways they've won some of these games are suspect and weak, the 31-1 team must get in.

That being said, even at 31-1, Miami (OH) is several notches lower than the other at-large teams. The committee threw the RedHawks in the play-in games where they await the SMU Mustangs. The Mustangs are favored by 6.5 points over Miami, indicating quite a large skill gap.

An EvanMiya rating of 8.3 means the RedHawks grade out as worse than Hofstra (13 seed) and worse than High Point (12 seed). Other comparable teams to Miami (OH) from an analytics standpoint this year include Colorado (17-15, 7-11) and Wichita State (23-11, 13-5). The former is a mediocre team from the Big 12 now playing in the College Basketball Crown. The latter was the #2 finisher in the American and now a 2 seed in the NIT. Had Miami finished 15-3 or even 16-2 in the MAC, no one would be talking about them. Some fortunate late-game breaks saw them finish 18-0, though, which forced the committee's hand to include them in the tournament.

A -7.5 differential between Miami's EvanMiya rating and the historical rating for their seed is the largest in the field this year in either direction. The RedHawks are solid offensively, ranking 14th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Their defense (100th in efficiency) and defensive rebounding (89th in rate) are not particularly good but not terrible.

Miami does lack a certain scrappiness that seems to always become a factor in March. Their offensive rebounding numbers rank outside the top-300 in the nation while they rank 198th in creating extra scoring chances through either rebounding or hustle. A lot of one-and-out possessions for this RedHawks team.

Now, before we hear that those numbers aren't out of line for what we'd expect from an 11 seed, bear in mind that Miami (OH) plays in the MAC and never got adventurous with the scheduling. Take each of those metrics with a grain of salt and remember that the RedHawks ranked 197th in strength of schedule this season.

Many folks are going to pencil Miami to go deep this postseason because they are enamored with that 31-1 record. Trust us folks, this is an excellent opportunity to gain an edge on the field. Treat this team for who they really are, a Colorado or a Wichita State. Would you place the livelihood of your bracket on the back of either of those teams?

Villanova -- 8 Seed, West Region

• EvanMiya Rating: 15.3
• Historical Seed Rating: 19
• Differential: -3.7

The EvanMiya ratings have the Wildcats as a below-average 8 seed, and the betting markets agree. The 9-seed Aggies of Utah State are favored slightly over Villanova right now on FanDuel Sportsbook. Not only does EvanMiya have Utah State over Villanova, but the NET rankings, KenPom and Torvik numbers all show the Aggies with the clear edge.

The 8-vs-9 game is the most-commonly misseeded game in the tournament by the committee, with 9 seeds actually posting a winning record over the 8s since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. It's not that crazy for 8-seed Villanova to be the lesser of the two teams in this opening-round matchup. Throw in the fact that they're in the West region and this draw becomes incredibly more difficult. Awaiting Nova in the second round, should they advance past Utah State, is 1-seed Arizona. Florida is the weakest of the 1 seeds this year. Arizona doesn't give anything easy, especially to a Villanova team that will be playing about as far away from their home of Philadelphia as you can get.

Texas Tech -- 5 Seed, Midwest Region

• EvanMiya Rating: 18.3
• Historical Seed Rating: 20.5
• Differential: -2.2

FanDuel's tournament odds show that Texas Tech is a bit less likely than the other 5 seeds to reach the Round of 32 or beyond. Not only are the Red Raiders considered a bit weak for a 5 seed by EvanMiya rankings, but their first-round opponents, the Akron Zips, are a popular Cinderella pick to go far in this year's tournament.

When 21-point per game scorer, JT Toppin, went down for the Red Raiders with an ACL, their championship hopes took a major ding. The importance of having a star scorer on which to lean increases in March, and that man for Texas Tech is now Christian Anderson. The 19-year-old guard out of Atlanta is in his 2nd year with Coach McCasland and will be leaned upon heavily both against Akron and any future opponents the Red Raiders run into.

A 22-10 overall record with a 12-6 mark in the Big 12 is very respectable, but much of this was accomplished with JT Toppin on the court. Tech is a team whose early-season results must be thrown out the window to properly evaluate. Heading into this tournament, their ratio of bark to bite is out of whack.

North Carolina -- 6 Seed, South Region

• EvanMiya Rating: 14.7
• Historical Seed Rating: 20
• Differential: -5.3

Read the Texas Tech section above on how they are a different team after the loss of JT Toppin and then say "ditto" for this Tar Heels team. When Caleb Wilson went down on February 10 with a broken hand, UNC moved from contender to tournament longshot.

A 5-4 record without Wilson in the lineup gives us no comfort that Coach Davis has solved the key to winning in his absence. If anyone needed a first-round date with Miami (OH), it's this Tar Heels team. Instead, they get one of the scariest double-digit seeds in the field in VCU, a team who has won 6 straight and took down the A-10 tourney leading up to this matchup.

North Carolina received a 6 seed based upon their pre-Caleb Wilson record, but an EvanMiya rating of 14.7 is more on par for an 11 or 12 seed. FanDuel Sportsbook has this UNC-VCU opening-round game as very close, nearly a straight toss up.

TCU -- 9 Seed, East Region

• EvanMiya Rating: 16.1
• Historical Seed Rating: 18
• Differential: -1.9

TCU’s first-round matchup, Ohio State, is actually better than the average 8 seed (per EvanMiya ratings), and then the Eastern 1-seed Duke is waiting on the other side with 5-seed St. John’s lurking on that side of the bracket as well.

We’ve documented how the Red Storm are one of the most underrated teams in the 2026 bracket. TCU has one of the toughest 9-seed paths to the Finals in recent history, and their FanDuel betting odds reflect that.

Which March Madness odds stand out to you this year? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.